Welcome back! Some fresh headlines to get you ready for week 5. Grab a cup of ☕ and let’s get to it:
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News & Notes:
The Texans have fired HC and GM Bill O’Brien.
Dolphins coach Brian Flores says he presumes QB Ryan Fitzpatrick remains starter. “I understand where everybody is coming with Tua, but he’s a young player coming off injury.”
Notable Injury Updates:
CLE RB Nick Chubb out roughly 6 weeks with an MCL sprain.
LAC RB Austin Ekeler has a Grade 2 hamstring strain. Out ‘several’ weeks.
TB TE OJ Howard is done for the season with an Achilles injury.
DEN TE Noah Fant’s ankle injury beleived to be ‘minor.’
ATL WR Julio Jones exited Monday's game with a hamstring injury.
GB WR Davante Adams supposedly held out of Monday’s game as a precaution.
LAR RB Cam Akers (ribs) is expected back for Week 5.
Articles, Insights, Analysis, Hype:
Most Fantasy Points by a QB Through the First 4 Games of a Season All-Time 1. Dak Prescott, 2020 (125.2) 2. Russell Wilson, 2020 (124.9) 3. Josh Allen, 2020 (120.3) 4. Peyton Manning, 2013 (120.1) 5. Aaron Rodgers, 2011 (116.3) 6. Lamar Jackson, 2019 (112.2)
MIN WR Justin Jefferson hype: first rookie WR since 2006 with a PFF grade above 90 through 4 weeks. Also: “The only player in the last ten years to have more yards than Justin Jefferson does in their first four games is Stefon Diggs. Diggs: 419 Jefferson: 348”
DAL QB Dak Prescott is on pace for 6,760 through 4 games. No QB has ever passed for 5,500 yards in a season. Also: Most passing yards through the first four games of a season: 1. Dak Prescott, 2020 - 1,657 2. Kurt Warner, 2000 - 1,557 3. Tom Brady, 2011 - 1,553 4. Patrick Mahomes, 2018 - 1,510. Also: Dak Prescott is the first player in NFL history with 450+ passing yards in 3 consecutive games.
BUF QB Josh Allen “has now played 32 NFL games (31 starts), including one playoff game. Essentially two full seasons: Games 1-16: 13 TD, 18 INT Games 17-32: 27 TD, 4 INT He's often referred to week 4 last season vs. Pats as a turning point for him. Guess what game that was? No. 16” Also: “Josh Allen has accounted for 42 TDs and 0 INTs in the redzone in his career.” Also: “Josh Allen through one quarter of the NFL season: 105-of-148 (71%), 1,326 passing yards, 12 passing TD, only 1 INT plus 3 rushing TD. A current pace of over 5,000 passing yards and 50 total TD. Baller.
SEA WR D.K. Metcalf leads the NFL in receptions gaining 30+ yards with 6. No other player has more than 3.
CIN QB Joe Burrow becomes the first rookie in NFL history to throw for 300+ yards in three straight games. Also: Joe Burrow through week 4 is PFF’s highest-graded rookie QB since '17 (79.4) and 1,121 passing yards is the most by a rookie since '11 (Cam Newton).
DET TE T.J. Hockenson “struggled in the box score today, but ran a route on 72.5% of pass attempts. 100% of 2-min offense; 100% long down and distance. Not the 90% we saw last week, but still a strong number. We still haven't seen the 2019 version of the Lions offense.”
Daniel Jeremiah gushing over LAC QB Justin Herbert’s 60 yard TD throw: “This is one of the best throws I’ve seen.” (video)
“Over the past 5 years in PPR: - Every WR1 got 100+ targets - 93.5% of top 24 WRs got 100+ targets - Every top 5 TE except 2 got 100+ targets - 156 of 160 teams (97.5%) had 2 or fewer guys get 100+ Being 3rd in pecking order crushes your upside. Here's [a chart] this season so far:”
SF RB Jerick McKinnon “in a competitive game script Sunday night: Career-high 92% snaps 21-of-25 RB touches 17.7% target share”
Week 4 target leaders: 16- Cooper 15- Kittle 14- McLaurin 12- Parker, Allen, Waller 11- Anderson 10- Thielen, A Robinson, Crowder, Ford, Engram
Something to be excited about if you have any part of the Browns’ run game: “Baker Mayfield threw for 165 yards and the Browns scored 49 points lmao”
PFF’s highest-graded Week 4 QBs (Not including MNF): 1. Josh Allen - 91.9 2. Russell Wilson - 91.8 3. Drew Brees - 89.4 4. Tom Brady - 88.8 5. Joe Burrow - 80.8
PFF’s highest graded Week 4 RBs (Not including MNF): 1. Dalvin Cook - 87.1 2. Antonio Gibson - 83.8 3. Kareem Hunt - 81.8 4. Latavius Murray - 80.7 5. Alvin Kamara - 80.4
The tight end with the most TDs in the NFL? GB TE Robert Tonyan.
TB QB Tom Brady “at 43 years old, just put together a second-half performance that included 15 of 17 completions for 263 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 INT. That’s a perfect passer rating of 158.3. Still got it.”
NE RB Damien Harris continues to stand out, and it's not just as a runner. He did a nice job picking up a block today and looks comfortable in his route tree. He's been the best back in camp.
Thread on /r/fantasyfootball: Week 4 buy, sell, hold.
Thread on /r/fantasyfootball: The case for HOU RB David Johnson ROS
Thread on /r/fantasyfootball: In-depth analysis of ARI RB Kenyan Drake usage.
Thread on /r/DynastyFF: “Your rookie RBs are doing just fine.”
Week 4 RB Snap% 1. Jerick McKinnon (92%) 2. Devin Singletary (89%) 3. David Montgomery (85%) 4. Joe Mixon (83%) 5. Melvin Gordon (80%) 6. Miles Sanders (77%) 7. Ezekiel Elliott (77%) 8. James Robinson (76%) 9. Dalvin Cook (74%) 10. Mike Davis (71%)
Cold Water (There’s a lot this week):
LV RB Josh Jacobs' fantasy points in Week 1 (PPR): 35.9 Josh Jacobs fantasy points since then (PPR): 33.1
ATL WR Calvin Ridley had zero catches in week 4. Might want to pay attention to whoever Jaire Alexander is shadowing each Sunday.
CAR WR D.J. Moore's “role (12.6 aDOT) has changed with Robby Anderson (9.1 aDOT) in town, and it's resulted in fewer easy targets. % of targets between -5 & 15 air yards 2019: 55% 2020: 41%”
IND WR TY Hilton has zero games over 87 receiving yards since Andrew Luck retired.
IND RB Jonathan Taylor's percentage of team running back rushes and target share marks over the last three weeks: Week 2: 74.3%, 8.0% Week 3: 44.8%, 4.0% Week 4: 48.6%, 3.6%. Matt Waldman thinks IND RB Jonathan Taylor’s struggles are due to processing just a half second too slow. Says that is common for rookies. (video)
ARI RB Kenyan Drake’s target share each week next to Chase Edmonds’ ain’t pretty.
DET WR Marvin Jones' target share by week: 1: 19.5% 2: 20.0% **Kenny Golladay returns** 3: 9.7% 4: 6.9%
DAL WR Michael Gallup target share per week: 1: 13.51% 2: 10.87% 3: 16.07% 4: 8.62%
Russell Wilson could throw 46 INTs on his next 46 pass attempts, and he’d still have a better QB rating than PHI QB Carson Wentz.
The Fun Stuff:
This Dak throw will now show up under the definition of ‘threading the needle’.
Rookie WR Brandon Aiyuk, ladies and gentlemen.
For those of us that went Saquon & Ekeler in redraft :(
When Tom Brady sees father time.
Panthers record with CMC = 0-2. Without CMC = 2-0. CMC stinks.