“Have you considered that Nick Chubb's redzone starts from the 40 yard line?”
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Welcome back!
Let me tell you all a story. I traded away Nick Chubb in my home Dynasty League before week 1. The end.
Now let’s get to the headlines.
Analysis & Hype:
NFL rushing leaders through Week 5
1. Nick Chubb (593)
2. Saquon Barkley (533)
3. Nick Chubb after contact (415)
4. Miles Sanders (414)
5. Dameon Pierce (412)
Nick Chubb:
1st in rushing yards (593)
1st in rushing TDs (7)
1st missed tackles forced (42)
1st in explosive runs (20)
1st in rushing grade (90.7)
Nick Chubb has 20 rushes of 10+ yards this season, which is more than 24 NFL teams have.
Dameon Pierce had 17 missed tackles forced on runs vs the Jaguars in week 5. That’s the most PFF has ever recorded in a single game.
In three years with the Ravens, Marquise Brown had six WR1 (top-12) games. He already has three through five weeks with the Cardinals.
WR Routes Run Leaders:
1. Marquise Brown (225)
2. Terry McLaurin (222)
3. Ja'Marr Chase (222)
4. Cooper Kupp (216)
5. Curtis Samuel (208)
5. Elijah Moore (208)
7. Allen Robinson (206)
8. Adam Thielen (204)
8. Justin Jefferson (204)
10. Davante Adams (199)
"As much confidence as you could possibly have, that's how much we have." Bill Belichick on the Patriots confidence in Rhamondre Stevenson.
This chart looks nice for Rhamandre Stevenson.
Lowest 'off-target' rates through five weeks:
6% - Geno Smith
7% - Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Matt Ryan
8% - Kirk Cousins
9% - Patrick Mahomes, Daniel Jones, Joe Burrow
Highest rates:
23% - Justin Fields
20% - Marcus Mariota
16% - Jameis Winston
15% - Jimmy Garoppolo
Receivers impacted most by the highest 'off-target' rates:
32% - Kyle Pitts
29% - Darnell Mooney
23% - Jahan Dotson
22% - DJ Moore, Nico Collins
21% - Drake London, Elijah Moore
19% - Davante Adams
18% - Rashod Bateman, Dalton Schultz
17% - Jerry Jeudy, Darren Waller, Marquise Brown
Joe Mixon inside the five-yard line this season: 7 carries 0 TD. This could be read as negative, or a buy low op.
Pro tip: targets tend to spread out against zone coverage. This often comes in the form of more targets for TEs and RBs. Top zone teams & week 6 opponents:
85% Rams (Panthers = CMC)
84% Vikings (Dolphins)
78% 49ers (Falcons = Pitts)
78% Bills (Chiefs)
77% Broncos (Bucs)
Kenny Pickett had 327 passing yards vs the Bills in his starting debut. It was the most by a Steelers QB in a single game since January 10, 2021.
“Raheem Mostert's takeover of the Dolphins' backfield is complete.
69% snaps
73% attempts
57% short yardage
60% long down distance
100% two-minute
19.2 fantasy points...
Chase Edmonds only 15% of snaps”
Through Week 5, Jakobi Meyers' 31.8% target share is the 4th-most among all wide receivers, trailing just CeeDee Lamb, Drake London, and Cooper Kupp.
Cade Otton ran more routes than any TE in Week 5. 34% of them came from the slot where he hit a target per slot route run of 0.25 Only Mark Andrews, Tyler Higbee, and Kyle Pitts have a higher target per route run from the slot than 0.25 across the season.
The Fantasy TE Landscape:
1. Travis Kelce - 111.8 PPR
-- Tier Break --
2. Mark Andrews - 91.2 PPR
-- Massive Tier Break --
3. TJ Hockenson - 65.7 PPR
4. Zach Ertz - 64.9 PPR
5. Dallas Goedert - 63.5 PPR
6. Tyler Higbee - 62.0
Tyler Lockett is boasting the best catch rate of his career on the second-most targets he's ever seen.
Chiefs HC Andy Reid on RB Isiah Pacheco: "We're getting to know No. 10. We're seeing him grow right before our eyes. We're kind of spotting him in and seeing how he can handle it. The more you see, the more you utilize him."
Kenneth Walker III handled 88% of the snaps after the departure of Rashaad Penny (ankle). 100% attempts 58% route participation DeeJay Dallas took 2 out of 3 snaps on obvious passing downs.
RBs who have faced stacked boxes at an above-average (19%) rate:
32% - Kareem Hunt
31% - Nick Chubb
28% - Rashaad Penny, Derrick Henry
27% - Jamaal Williams, Breece Hall, Antonio Gibson
Low rates:
3% - Aaron Jones
6% - Cam Akers
9% - Dalvin Cook, Jonathan Taylor, Raheem Mostert
Joshua Kelley out-snapped Sony Michel 27-2 in week 5.
RB Yards Per Route Run Leaders: (min 60)
1. Breece Hall (2.20)
2. Austin Ekeler (1.89)
3. Alvin Kamara (1.80)
4. Antonio Gibson (1.70)
5. Nyheim Hines (1.64)
6. CEH (1.63)
7. Melvin Gordon (1.61)
8. Rachaad White (1.49)
9. Leonard Fournette (1.46)
10. Travis Etienne (1.38)
Travis Etienne through five games (via @FantasyPtsData )
– 5+ yards on 45.5% of his carries (fifth-best)
– Forced 0.30 missed tackles per carry (sixth-best)
– 3.3 yards after contact (10th-best)
Snaps have increased in four-straight games (37% > 43% > 51% > 53%)
“We’ve been playing Jaylen Warren more and will continue to do so.” - Mike Tomlin
“Until we have official word on Jonathan Taylor I'm stashing Deon Jackson ahead of this week's game between the Colts and Jaguars. Against the Broncos, Jackson rushed 13 times for 62 yards and caught 4-of-4 passes for another 29 yards. Jags are allowing 25.5 PPG to opposing RBs.”
/r/DynastyFF thread: 2023 Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft - Extra Point Fantasy Football
On average, an NFL receiver earns a target 29% of the time they face single-man coverage.
2022 leaders, per PFF data:
55% Mike Williams
45% Tyreek Hill
44% Justin Jefferson, Courtland Sutton, Davante Adams
43% Drake London, Mike Evans
42% Kupp, Higgins, Diggs, Lamb, Meyers
Cold Water:
Some notable WRs earning fewer targets than the NFL average against single-man coverage (29%), per PFF:
14% Darnell Mooney
17% Terry McLaurin, Josh Palmer
18% JuJu Smith-Schuster, Rashod Bateman
19% Romeo Doubs
20% Elijah Moore
21% Allen Robinson
23% DeVonta Smith, Gabe Davis
Russell Wilson was 2-of-15 with 2 INTs on passes of 10+ air yards in week 5.
The Fun Stuff:
“Have you considered that nick chubbs redzone starts from the 40 yard line.”
How the refs wanted Grady Jarrett to sack Tom Brady.
“getting a colonoscopy tomorrow but the worst part of the day will be watching the Bears/Commanders game.”
Gotta wake up early to check those waiver claims.
“AJ Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, & Marquise Brown are all Top-10 WR’s in PPG through 4 weeks. DJ Moore, Elijah Moore, & Skyy Moore are all outside the Top-50. My advice next year: Brown = Good, Moore = Bad. This game doesn’t have to be hard sometimes.”
“Parents make sure you're checking your kids' Halloween candy. I just found a Milky Way with Kyle Pitts' fantasy points inside.”
We all want more of this camera angle.
Bengals O-line has poor Joe Burrow is seeing ghosts.
When you win a waiver claim with a $32 bid, but the next highest bid was $6:
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