Greg Dulcich is Goated
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Welcome back!
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Analysis & Hype:
Saints' tight end [Foster] Moreau says his cancer is in 'full remission.’ Donate to Livestrong to help others fighting cancer.
Wide Receivers to post a 25%+ Target Share in each of the past two Seasons:
• Justin Jefferson
• AJ Brown
• Stefon Diggs
• Davante Adams
• Cooper Kupp
• DJ Moore
• Diontae Johnson
23 players carried 8+ times inside the 5-yard line last year...
Most efficient at converting those into TDs:
• Austin Ekeler (6 of 8)
• Derrick Henry (10 of 15)
• Cam Akers (5 of 8)
• Ezekiel Elliott (9 of 16)
Least efficient at converting carries inside the 5 into TDs:
• Ken Walker (1 of 9)
• Travis Etienne (2 of 10)
• Najee Harris (3 of 9)
• Dalvin Cook (5 of 15)
Most and least expensive WR rooms in 2023:
• DEN - $44M
• GB - $10M
Brock Purdy [2022]
• Led all QBs in fantasy points per dropback last season (0.60)
• Ranked 8th in fantasy points per start (18.6)
Brock Purdy [2023]
• Guaranteed starter when healthy - per @RapSheet and @AdamSchefter
• Best supporting cast in football
• ADP: QB25
Completion rate inside the 10-yard line (min. 20 attempts)
• [75% - Brock Purdy, if he qualified]
• 68% - Daniel Jones
• 64% - Ryan Tannehill
• 63% - Dak Prescott
…
• 37% - Matt Ryan
• 36% - Jalen Hurts
• 33% - Derek Carr
NFL Injury Updates (from a doctor):
• Brock Purdy – Betting big that he plays Week 1
• Breece Hall – Machine learning predicts 2/3 chance for Week 1
• Kyler Murray – Volatile timeline. Likely ~Wk 8 return
• Bounce-back candidates: Dalton Schultz, Robert Woods, Michael Gallup
Don't forget, only Travis Kelce had more yards after the catch than Evan Engram last year.
There were just three Tight Ends to post a 15.0%+ Target Share on a 9.0+ aDOT last season.
• Mark Andrews
• Kyle Pitts
• Greg Dulcich
TJ Hockenson in 10 games with Vikings last season:
• 22.6% target share
• 8.6 targets per game
• 7.7-yard aDOT
• 6.0-51.9-0.3 average
Travis Kelce in 17 games with Chiefs last season
• 23.3% target share
• 8.9 targets per game
• 7.6-yard aDOT
• 6.5-78.7-0.7 average
Largest gap in ADP between WR1/WR2:
• Drake London WR23 -> Mack Hollins WR105 = 82 spots
• Treylon Burks WR37 -> Kyle Phillips WR117 = 68 spots
• Cooper Kupp WR4 -> Van Jefferson WR65 = 61 spots
• Davante Adams WR7 -> Jakobi Meyers WR56 = 49 spots
• Garrett Wilson WR6 -> Allen Lazard WR52 = 46 spots
For those who forgot about Titans Year 2 WR Kyle Philips:
• Led the team with nine targets in Week 1
• Targeted on 28.3% of his routes (top-10 in 2022)
• That TPRR ranks 15th among rookie WRs since 2007, between legendary PPR scams Golden Tate (12th) and Davone Bess (18th).
George Pickens has put up 801 yards on 580 routes run as a pro. Rashod Bateman has put up 800 yards on 529 routes run as a pro. Bateman is almost 4 full rounds cheaper in dynasty (WR26/6.07 vs WR42/10.02).
Michael Pittman 2022 #ReceptionPerception success rates:
• 74.2% success rate vs. man
• 82.5% vs. zone
• 81.6% vs press (95th percentile)
Justin Herbert still managed to have the 2nd most passing yards last year despite a 6.9 yard aDot (34th among QBs that had 200+ dropbacks).
TE Best Ball Strategy Lesson. Nothing groundbreaking, but reminder that when you wait until late (after rd 9) to grab a TE:
1) 3TE has significantly better advance rates than 2TE
2) When going 3TE, push TE1 as late as possible
3) 4TE is FINE but unnecessary - 3 is always better
Pretty crazy how stable and awesome A.J. Brown's [ADP WR6] success rate vs. man coverage scores have been in #ReceptionPerception the last three seasons. He's been top-5 in this metric each of the last three years.
Yards per route run in non-garbage time, 2022:
1. Tyreek Hill, 2.8
2. Davante Adams, 2.7
3. AJ Brown, 2.6
4. Justin Jefferson, 2.6
5. Amon-Ra St. Brown, 2.5
6. CeeDee Lamb, 2.4
7. Chris Olave, 2.4
8. Jaylen Waddle, 2.4
9. Cooper Kupp, 2.3
10. Stefon Diggs, 2.2
Since 2018, 7 WRs have had over 10% of their games played go for over 30 PPR points. Davante Adams is the only player over 20%, sitting at 24.1%. (Minimum 20 Games Played & this is including playoffs)
New Orleans Saints WR Rashid Shaheed:
• Week 11 on averaged 2.40 yards per route run
• Week 11 on averaged 9.8 FPTS per game
• Averaged 6.2 yards after catch per reception on the season
• 82.4% catch rate
The betting market sees Joe Burrow, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes as the current frontrunners to win the MVP award.
Ben Johnson's Lions offense in 2022:
• 5th in EPA Per Play
• 14 turnovers (2nd fewest)
• 2,337 YAC (4th)
• 26 sacks allowed (2nd fewest)
• 16 TDs off PA (1st)
• 32/36 (88.6%) goal-line situations (1st)
• 36/108 on 3rd/4th &7+ (3rd)
• 22 RZ rush TDs (2nd)
• 22 RZ pass TDs (T-5th)
D'Andre Swift was 10th among not just RBs – but all players – in 2022 scrimmage yards per touch.
The last 5 RBs to be drafted Top 12 in the NFL draft and their rookie year fantasy finish.
• 2018 Saquon Barkley (RB2)
• 2017 Christian McCaffrey (RB11)
• 2017 Leonard Fournette (RB8)
• 2016 Ezekiel Elliott (RB2)
• 2015 Todd Gurley (RB7)
For RBs Drafted as a Top 12 NFL Pick since 2000 (like Bijan Robinson + Jahmyr Gibbs were this year):
• 19/20 (95%) had a Top 24 finish in their career
• 16/20 (80%) had a Top 12 finish in their career
• 11/20 (55%) had a Top 5 finish in their career
• The only miss for Top 24: 2000 Ron Dayne
Cumulative Rush EPA, 2016-22
• Jonathan Taylor and Aaron Jones at the TOP
• Henry and Elliott leading the rush attempts
• All players going downhill cumulatively
Rookie WRs since 2011 that had: 1) 22%-plus target rate, 2) 75.0-plus PFF receiving grade, BUT 3) didn't play in a full-time role all season (min. 250 routes)
• Tyreek Hill
• Christian Watson
• Chase Claypool
• Jarvis Landry
• Doug Baldwin
Since 2021, only 6 WRs have more targets than DJ Moore
• Justin Jefferson
• Davante Adams
• Tyreek Hill
• Stefon Diggs
• Diontae Johnson
• Cooper Kupp
How quarterbacks performed in the redzone vs. outside of the redzone in 2022 (minimum of 400 total plays to qualify):
• Top right Mahomes, Dak, and Tua
• Mac Jones seems inefficient
• Derek Carr collapses in the red zone
Clip of Miles Sanders talking to GM Scott Fitterer and HC Frank Reich about “catching more balls” where they specifically mention how he caught 50 [in a season] in PHI.
Browns RB coach Stump Mitchell on Nick Chubb: “He’ll have the opportunity to catch more passes, so I think people will see that he’s more than just a running back... I think he’ll be successful. It’s an opportunity to perhaps gain a thousand yards receiving as well."
Chiefs RB Jerick McKinnon had more receiving TDs in 2022 than the following wide receivers:
• Justin Jefferson (8 TD)
• Jaylen Waddle (8 TD)
• Tyreek Hill (7 TD)
• DJ Moore (7 TD)
• Tee Higgins (7 TD)
• Mike Evans (6 TD)
• Cooper Kupp (6 TD)
• DK Metcalf (6 TD)
Jerick McKinnon led all running backs in Yards Created per Attempt last year with 5.56.
3rd down conversion % on 3rd & over 5
44% - Patrick Mahomes
43% - Dak Prescott
40% - Tua Tagovailoa
…
19% - Russell Wilson, Baker Mayfield
17% - Tom Brady
In the final 5 weeks of the season, Jahan Dotson was on pace for 120 targets, 70+ receptions, and 10 touchdowns.
Since 2021, Cooper Kupp has:
• Double-digit fantasy points in every outing
• 20+ points in 80% of games
• 30+ points in 32% of games
• 25.3 ppg
Average age of Top 12 RBs:
• 2018: 23.5
• 2019: 24.5
• 2020: 24.33
• 2021: 25.25
• 2022: 26.00
James Conner in 2022:
• 9th Highest PPG
• 10th Highest Carry%
• 13th Highest YPTRA
• 12th Highest Target Share
Pickens joins 36 WR’s since 2000 drafted RD1/RD2 to put up 800+ yards as a rookie.
• 24/36 (66%) hit or paced for 1,000+ yards in YR2.
• Amongst just the early-declares, 18/21 (86%) hit or paced for 1,000+ yards in YR2.
• George Pickens is an early-declare
Tyler Lockett has outscored DK Metcalf in back-to-back seasons.
• 15.1-14.4 PPG in 2021.
• 14.8-13.3 PPG last year.
Cold Water:
Pretty wild DeVante Parker stat: his WR separation ranking using Next Gen Stats player tracking data:
2022: #122 out of 122 WRs
2021: #127 out of 127 WRs
2020: #132 out of 132 WRs
Is Alexander Mattison this year’s Chase Edmonds?
• Career-backup who played decently in a couple spot-starts, thrust into a “starting” role.
• Never cleared 600 rushing yards in any of their first 4 seasons.
• Disappointing non-workhorse when given the “lead” gig.
• Deadzone RB.
The last 2 years inside the 10, Derek Carr ranks:
• dead last in completion %
• dead last in YPA
• 2nd to last in EPA
300 yard passing games in 2022:
• Aaron Rodgers: 0
• Matt Ryan: 2
Aaron Rodgers attempted 40 passes 30+ yards downfield: he completed just 6.
4 INTs to only 2 TDs. As a result, the Packers ranked #30 in EPA/att, #29 in success & YPA on such deeper passes. Zach Wilson also had 6 completions... but on only 16 attempts. Not only was Aaron Rodgers’ 40 attempts the #1 most attempts of any QB... only 1 other QB had more than 30 attempts
Fewest yards per target over the last three seasons among all RBs with 50+ targets:
• Ezekiel Elliott (4.5)
• Ronald Jones (4.5)
• Dare Ogunbowale (4.1)
• Miles Sanders (3.9)
Miles Sanders the receiver since 2020:
• 112 targets, 74 rec, 433 yards, 0TD
• 66.1% catch rate (last among qualified RB)
• 3.9 yards/target (last among qualified RB)
Kadarius Toney routes run by week after he returned from his hamstring injury
• Super Bowl: 5
• Conference Championship: 3 (injured)
• Divisional Round: 12
• Wk 18: 6
• Wk 17: 15
• Wk 16: 9
• Wk 15: 3
26 Rookie QBs have 10+ starts since 2012. This is the best WR finish from each of their teams:
• 13/26 (50%) WRs finished inside the Top 36
• 6/26 (23%) WRs finished inside the Top 24
• 1/26 (4%) WRs finished inside the Top 12
Michael Pittman’s ADP is currently WR24
"Rachaad White had 50 receptions as a rookie, he's an elite pass-catcher"
• Checkdown king Tom Brady is gone
• Leonard Fournette had 73 receptions in 2022, so White wasn't even the primary pass-catching back
• Tampa scored the 2nd fewest points in the NFL last year
AJ Dillon (among running backs with at least 800 carries since 2020):
• tackle for loss rate: 4.4% (1st/42) [Best]
• explosive rate: 4.4% (42/42) [Worst]
”If you need 3 yards he will get you 3 yards and if you need 5 yards, he will also get you 3 yards”
Packers Rushing TDs (2022)
• AJ Dillon - 7
• Christian Watson - 2
• Aaron Jones - 2
• Aaron Rodgers - 1
Saquon Barkley weeks 9-18 among 45 qualifying RBs:
• 45th in Yards after contact/att
• 45th in elusive rating
• 31st in breakaway %
Romeo Doubs is a RD4 pick who:
• cleared 50 yards just 3X as a rookie
• ranked 72/80 in PFF receiving grade amongst WR’s with 50+ targets
• charted 5th, 24th, & 9th percentile vs Man, Zone, & Press
The Fun Stuff:
OBJ getting special treatment at practice
Antonio Brown’s new team has some controversial management
Tom Brady as a rookie vs. Arch Manning as a college freshman
Arrests per NFL team since 2000
Yes, you read that right - an average of 111 yards per reception
Least biased Packers fan
Cardale Jones sets the record straight
Some NFL players have high hopes this season
My expressions when reading your comments.
JFK fumbled a chance to purchase the Eagles Due to the Cuban Missile Crisis
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