Get in here and overreact to everything!

Welcome back!

If you won last week, congratulations, you’re clearly winning the championship this year. If you lost, sorry, but it’s time to pack it up and go home. That’s just how week 1 works.

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And now to the headlines.

Analysis & Hype:

In Week One last season:
• Carson Wentz outscored Joe Burrow
• Dontrell Hilliard outscored CMC
• Devin Duvernay outscored Tyreek Hill
• Colby Parkinson outscored Mark Andrews
R-E-L-A-X it’s only Week One

The Best RB Pass Game Usage from Week 1:
• Travis Etienne: 86% routes run
• Christian McCaffrey: 79%
• Bijan Robinson: 77%
• James Conner: 76%
• Kyren Williams: 72%

6 RBs saw over a 75% Snap Share in Week 1
• 88% Christian McCaffrey
• 83% James Conner
• 81% Travis Etienne
• 79% Rachaad White
• 77% David Montgomery
• 76% Jamaal Williams

Travis Etienne's 86% route rate and 15.6% target share against the Colts were both career-high marks.

Only 2 RBs earned 100% of their team's red zone snaps: Christian McCaffrey and Rachaad White.

Kenneth Gainwell had 88% of the RB carries and 57% of the RB targets in Philly, while D'Andre Swift (2 touches) and Rashaad Penny (healthy scratch) were irrelevant.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba was on the field for 66% of passing plays but tied for the team lead in target share at 22%. He was targeted on 26% of routes -- first on the team.

Dalton Kincaid had four targets, played virtually the whole game, and had 10+ snaps lined up as a Wide Receiver.

After the Bills ranked dead last in plays from 12 personnel last year (3.7%) and they used 2+ TEs on the field for just 9.7% of snaps (#30), Monday night's rates were:
• 63% 12 personnel (#1, only team above 42%)
• 71% 2+ TEs (#1, only team above 54%)

Only 1 player saw 3 endzone targets Week 1: Pat Freiermuth.

Breece Hall gained +81 rush yards over expected on 10 carries for 127 yards, the 5th-most RYOE in a game by a RB since the start of last season.

Last season in just 6.5 games, Breece Hall posted 2.78 Yards per Team Rush Attempt and 0.84 Yards per Team Pass Attempt.

Joe Mixon:
• Forced 3 missed tackles on Sunday.
• His 4.38 yards after contact would be a career-high for a season (by a full yard)
• He has 2 runs over 10 yards (21 all year last season)
• He has one 15+ yard run (7 all last season)
• His PFF Elusive Rating of 82.2 would be a career high for a full season.

Kyren Williams out-snapped Cam Akers 26 to 4 in the first half.

Kupp 2022:
• 29.9% target %
• 37.5% 1st read %
• 21% screens
• 55.6% slot 43.3% wide
Puka Nacua Week 1:
• 39.5% target %
• 42.9% 1st read %
• 7% screens
• 29% slot 70% wide

The Rams offense can support 2 top receivers
2018: Woods - WR11, Cooks - WR13
2019: Kupp - WR4, Woods - WR14

Falcons backfield split in Week 1:
Bijan Robinson: 65% snap share; 40.0% RB rush share; 35.3% target share
Tyler Allgeier: 54% snap share; 60.0% RB rush share; 17.6% target share
The Falcons currently have a 53% running back target share.

Notable RBs and their carries from rookie Week 1:
• Jonathan Taylor: 9
• D’Andre Swift: 3
• JK Dobbins: 7
• Travis Etienne: 4
• Kenneth Walker: 4
• Breece Hall: 6
• Jahmyr Gibbs: 7

Jahmyr Gibbs led all running backs in week one with six (6) missed tackles forced, despite seeing seven carries (42nd most).

Rush attempts inside the 10-yard line in Week 1, per Fantasy Points Data:
1. Tony Pollard (6)
2. Josh Jacobs (5)
3. Tyler Allgeier (4)
4. Austin Ekeler (4)
5. A.J. Dillon (3)

WR first-read rates in Week 1, per Fantasy Points Data:
1. Zay Flowers (60%)
2. A.J. Brown (47%)
3. Davante Adams (44%)
4. Jakobi Meyers (44%)
5. Puka Nacua (43%)

Most targeted players (in Week 1) by position:
• RB: Ezekiel Elliott and Roschon Johnson (7)
• WR: Tyreek Hill and Puka Nacua (15)
• TE: Zach Ertz (10)

Brandon Aiyuk led the 49ers in targets (8), receptions (8), yards (129) and touchdowns (2), though Deebo Samuel (7 targets) and George Kittle (6 targets) were involved as well.

Lions RB snaps -
• Montgomery 54 (77%)
• Gibbs 19 (27%)

Christian Watson averaged a whopping 20.7 fantasy points per game when playing 70-percent or more snaps in 2022.

Terry McLaurin has not only had 3 straight 1,000 yard seasons, but also finished 2022:
• #4 in Deep Targets
• #5 in Route Participation
• #7 in Average Depth of Target
• #9 in Receiving Yards

Fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers
1. Browns 22.2
2. Giants 27.3
3. Cowboys 28.0
[…none higher than 61…]
30. Bucs 79.4
31. Eagles 84.6
32. Chargers 92.6

Chris Olave in Week 1:
• 30% Target Rate
• >100 Receiving Yards
• 8th in Fantasy Points Per Route

James Cook in Week 1:
• 72% RB Touches
• 59% Snap Share
• 50% Route Participation

The Steelers had 28 dropbacks without Diontae Johnson on Sunday, mainly from 3-WR Sets. Allen Robinson took 85.3% of his snaps from the slot. Robinson led the team with 8 targets (turned into 5 receptions) and had 64 yards.

Running Back Routes Run Leaders:
• Rhamondre Stevenson: 34
• Raheem Mostert: 32
• Travis Etienne: 29
• Deon Jackson: 29
• Kyren Williams: 28

Nico Collins had a 23% target share, 28% targets per route run, 2.05 YPRR and 61% Air Yards Share in Week 1.

QBs with 3+ TDs and 0 INTs in Week 1:
• Jordan Love

Rashid Shaheed posted a cool 3.56 yards/route run in Week 1, trailing only Tyreek (6.14) and Brandon Aiyuk (4.30) among players with 10+ routes. Going back to last year, only Tyreek (3.26) has a higher rate of yards/route run than Shaheed (2.72) for all players with 100+ routes.

Great “Rookie Stock Watch” writeup on /R/DynastyFF

Cold Water:

In the same season, no team has ever
• Lost 40-0 or worse
• Lost the sack battle 7-0 or worse
• Lost the turnover battle 3-0 (or worse)
• Had a blocked FG returned for a TD
• Threw a pick-6
The Giants did it all in one game.

Last 2 years:
Jacoby Brissett:
• 11th in QBR
• 2nd in CPOE
• 7th in INT rate
Zach Wilson:
• 33rd in QBR
• 34th in CPOE
• 31st in in INT rate

Garrett Wilson game log with Zach Wilson at QB last year:
• 2/41
• 3/27
• 1/8
• 4/24
• 6/115
• 8/92
• 2/12
• 4/98
• 1/13
Zero TDs

Broncos WRs routes against Raiders:
• Courtland Sutton 86%
• Lil'Jordan Humphrey 67%
• Brandon Johnson 57%
• Marvin Mims 31%
• Phillip Dorsett 12%

Gabe Davis on Monday:
• 4 targets (9.7% TS)
• Tied for 3rd on the team (with 4 other players)
• 32 total yards

Josh Allen was pressured on 26% of dropbacks, 10th lowest of any QB. Despite that, he took 9 hits (3rd most) and 5 sacks (5th most) while being sacked on 11% of dropbacks (5th most).

Josh Allen finished 2/7 for 41 yards and 3 INT on passes over 15 air yards in a MNF loss to the Jets. Allen found more success underneath, going 27/32 for 195 yards with a TD and +10.5% CPOE on passes under 15 air yards.

Rachaad White recorded *NEGATIVE-38* rush yards over expectation today, per NextGenStats. Would have been tied for the fourth-worst RYOE game of the entire 2022 season.

Just a brutal opening week for most RBs for whom the draft argument was, "Who else is getting those carries?"
• Akers: ran behind Kyren Williams
• Najee: 52% snap share
• Mattison: 3.1 yards per touch
• White: 17 carries, 39 yards
• Deon: disaster game, Moss returning soon

Rams Week 1 backfield:
• Snaps: Kyren Williams - 65%, Cam Akers - 35%
• Routes: Williams - 74%, Akers - 10%
• Carries inside the 10: Williams - 3, Akers - 2

Total yards at halftime:
Justin Jefferson 138
Panthers 135
Colts 136
Texans 119
Cardinals 117
Ravens 114
Bucs 96
Falcons 74
Steelers 70

Last year, Tua Tagovailoa's QBR:
With Terron Armstead: 76.7
Without Terron Armstead: 12.9

Kyle Pitts leads the league in % of his team's air yards (83%)… but ranks 55th in total air yards.

Tee Higgins is not believed to be in the Bengals future plans.

Christian Kirk had a 66% route participation compared with 97% for Ridley and 94% for Jones; he played only 5 snaps (out of 31) when the Jaguars used two or fewer WRs. Looks like it will be Ridley & Jones outside most plays, with Kirk in the slot competing with Evan Engram for looks.

Be careful on Zay Flowers: 5 of his 10 targets were on screens in a game where Mark Andrews didn't play. Of wide receivers with 3 or more targets, only Noah Brown (-3.5), JSN (1.0), and KaVonte Turpin (1.3) had a lower aDOT than Flowers (2.6).

The Fun Stuff:

Not your typical big man touchdown.

Don’t lie, you’d react the same way too…

A Wisconsin bar offered free drinks if the Jets lost. After Rodgers went down, they started running up their tabs. The news was live when the Jets won in overtime and everyone realized they had to pay.

Trevor Lawrence to Calvin Ridley is going to be fun.

Some key analytics about Javonte Williams.

David Bakhtiari was pissed about the turf potentially causing the Rodgers injury.

Houston 9 - 25 Baltimore is the 1076th unique final score in NFL history. Scorigami!

Looks like Baker didn’t forget his mouth when packing for Tampa.

Coleridge is about to make (another) name for himself in the NFL.

Kind of like trying to drink a water bottle while the cap is still on - we’ve all been there.

Well this DK Metcalf quote didn’t age well…

Excellent breakdown of the missed ARSB Touchdown.

2015 Ohio State’s roster was insane.

38-year old free-agent QB Joe Flacco says he still hopes to play in 2023.

AI has finally gone too far…

Waiver Weapons - Week Two:

As a reminder, Waiver Weapons is a new segment we’re trying out where the three of us each share a player that is on most leagues’ waiver wires who we think you could start that week, or are interesting stashes.

Week 1 Recap: Luke Musgrave (Chris’ pick - 8.0 PPR points) and Jake Ferguson (Camaron’s pick - 3.1 PPR points) didn’t win you your game last week, but you got more points from then than if you’d started Kelce or Andrews, so they did what they had to do. Musgrave was almost the highest scoring TE of the week - if only he remembered to tie his shoes… Meanwhile, Will’s pick, Tutu Atwell, scored 17.9 PPR points and blew up alongside fellow Ram Puka Nacua in their blowout of the Seahawks; that’s why Will is in charge.

Chris’ Pick: Allen Robinson, WR, PIT (16% rostered on Sleeper) - As referenced above, Robinson quietly put up a top-36 WR performance last week. Yes, Cleveland just handed Burrow and Co. a terrible passing performance in Week 1, but I think that will work in favor of Robinson, who mainly worked out of the slot last week and could see a lot of short-area action as Pickett looks to get the ball out quickly. Regardless of how Week 2 goes, Robinson is worth a medium-term spot on your roster and could be potential trade bait if Diontae misses considerable time.

Camaron’s pick: Zach Ertz, TE, ARI (13% rostered on Sleeper) - Last week I chose a TE that we thought would get good volume, but his elite defense made it so he didn’t get the chance. This week we won’t be repeating that mistake. In 2022 without DeAndre Hopkins, Zach Ertz put up 35 receptions, 299 yards, and 2 touchdowns in 6 games. That’s 12.82 PPR points per game, which would have made him last week’s TE3. Ertz out snapped Trey McBride 77% to 37%, and led the team in receptions last week. Ertz looks to be a serviceable option while the Titans figure out how to throw more to Chig Okonkwo.

Will’s pick: Chuba Hubbard, RB, CAR (23% rostered on Sleeper) - Finding RBs that will give you any productions off the waivers is tough. Hubbard was efficient last week going for 60 yards on 9 carries and caught 2 of 2 targets for another 9 yards. 69 total yards. Nice.

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