George Pickens > Ja’Marr Chase According to This Week's Edition
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Welcome back to the FF Newsletter!
We have some steaming hot takes in the form of stats this week. The kind of standalone stats that cause fights out in these FF streets. We hope you enjoy them as much as we did.
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Now without further ado, let’s get to the good stuff.
Analysis & Hype:
91% of RBs with 300+ Touches over the last decade have finished Top-12. Running backs we predict to get over 300 touches this season in our draft guide:
• Jonathan Taylor
• END OF LIST
Justin Jefferson in 4 starts without Kirk Cousins at QB last year:
• 7 catches/84 yards on 10 targets
• 6/141/1 on 10 targets
• 5/59 on 10 targets
• 12/192/1 on 14 targets
Averaged: 20.6 fantasy PPG.
Justin Jefferson averaged 3.03 yards per route run (157 routes) with Nick Mullens, and 2.99 YPPR (191 routes) with Kirk Cousins last season. Only Tyreek Hill (4.05 YPPR), Tyreek Hill (3.37), and Brandon Aiyuk (3.27) were more efficient
David Montgomery basically played two games last season with Jahmyr Gibbs injured/out:
• Week 4: 34 touches, 141 yards, 3 TD, PPR RB2
• Week 5: 21 touches, 129 yards, 1 TD, PPR RB5
D-Mont still averaged 13.6 PPR points/game with both RBs healthy from Weeks 10-NFC Championship (RB20)
The top fantasy RB's in fantasy points per game from weeks 10 to 18.
1. Kyren Williams
2. Christian McCaffrey
3. Breece Hall
4. Isiah Pacheco
5. Jonathan Taylor
Bo Nix ran for 38 touchdowns in 61 college games.
5th Year Quarterbacks to post 40+ PPG in the SEC
• Joe Burrow
• Jayden Daniels
Nine QB’s in NFL history had 100+ rushing attempts in 1 of their first 2 seasons. Every single one averaged 16.5+ fantasy PPG that year.
Jets RB Braelon Allen went 186-1268-12 as a 17 year old freshman at Wisconsin and went 6-54-0 in his preseason debut.
Braelon Allen had the #1 explosive run rate of any RB so far this preseason.
De’Von Achane had as many Top-5 weekly finishes (4) last year as Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, & Derrick Henry had combined.
If you remove the Denver game, De’Von Achane’s 17 game pace last season was: 217 attempts for 1700 yards, 55 receptions, 419 rec yards and 23 total TDs. Average of 23.8 PPG.
Chase Brown had the 3rd highest Break Away Percentage (49.7%) trailing only De’Von Achane (54.0%) and Keaton Mitchell (60.6%).
Keon Coleman posted a 100% route participation with the starting WRs for the Bills.
Breece Hall last year
• No Quarterback
• Terrible offensive line
• Recovering from ACL Injury
• Limited role until Week 5
• Still finished as fantasy RB4 overall.
Brock Bowers’ alignment on 11 snaps in his preseason debut:
• TE - 4
• Wide - 3
• Backfield - 3
• Slot - 1
Greg Dulcich was one of just four Rookie Tight Ends to ever post a 15%+ Target Share on a 9.0+ aDOT, joining:
• Vernon Davis
• Kyle Pitts
• Evan Engram
Keenan Allen had 100% route participation with Caleb Williams in the Bears preseason debut. When the team went to 12 personnel he stayed on the field, with D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze rotating for the other spot.
In 2023, 11 RBs selected outside of the top 24 RBs went on to finish inside the top 24 RBs (Week 1-17 scoring). In 2022, 8 RBs selected outside of the top 24 RBs finished inside the top 24 RBs.
Justin Fields & Josh Allen are the only QBs since 1950 to improve in wins, pass yds, comp pct, INT pct & passer rating each of their first 3 seasons.
DeVonta Smith finished with the highest snap percentage amongst all WR’s last year (96%). Alec Pierce was (surprisingly) 2nd at 95%.
Deebo Samuel was the WR3 overall during the final 10 weeks of the season last year.
Michael Pittman Jr. had 109 receptions last year and ranks 5th in that category (208) over the past 2 seasons.
“His releases are the best I’ve seen. I’ve actually been studying him because they’re that good.” - Michael Pittman Jr. on Adonai Mitchell
Jaylen Wright has a better size-adjusted speed score than De'Von Achane.
Since the NFL merger, minimum 200 carries, here are the career leaders in yards per rush attempt among running backs:
1. JK Dobbins (5.8)
2. Rashaad Penny (5.6)
3. Bo Jackson (5.4)
4. Hokie Gajan (5.4)
5. Jamaal Charles (5.4)
George Pickens had a higher YPRR (2.11) last season than Ja’Marr Chase (2.02) while playing with Mason Rudolph, Mitch Trubisky, and Kenny Pickett.
In 2023, Tyjae Spears had the same amount of receptions (52) and 69 More receiving yards than Jahmyr Gibbs.
David Njoku was the TE1 per game and the TE1 in usage from Week 7 through the NFL Playoffs (12 games) last year.
% of QB pressures that turn into sacks
10.3% - Josh Allen (best)
11.2% - Patrick Mahomes
11.9% - Joe Flacco
13.2% - Jared Goff
13.9% - Geno Smith
Cold Water:
% of QB pressures that turn into sacks
24.3% - Zach Wilson
24.6% - Bryce Young
30.2% - Ryan Tannehill
31.6% - Daniel Jones
37.4% - Tommy DeVito (worst)
James Cook is the only RB priced in the Top-30 picks on ESPN who failed to hit 14.5+ PPG last year.
Chase Brown was dead last among 77 qualifying RBs in rushing success rate last year.
Stetson Bennett, a two time national title game MVP, had four Interceptions and a 55% completion percentage against NFL backups.
The NFL avg completion rate the last decade is 63.9%. Sam Darnold played 66 games over 6 seasons. His career average completion rate is 59.7%.
Caleb Williams average time to throw on Saturday: 3.56 seconds
Justin Fields NFL-high average time to throw in 2023: 3.39 seconds
The Fun Stuff:
Introducing Will Levis No. 8, Parfum de Mayonnaise
The Bears are BACK
Speaking of the Bears, here’s a fitting tribute to an all-time great QB
I'm ready to get hurt again…
11-year-old Malik Nabers DM'd Odell Beckham Jr. asking him for gloves.
Bucs rookie Center Graham Barton highlights
JSN Blocking Highlight
The Rams might have done it again with rookie Jordan Whittington
Spencer Rattler his Puka Nacua’s brother Samson to set up a game winning field goal in the preseason.
D’Andre Swift was floatin’
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