Garrett Wilson: Elite WR, Elite Troll
Welcome back!
Three. More. Weeks. Watching real football again is going to be incredible. We got some good headlines for you this week, so let’s get to it.
Analysis & Hype:
Tyreek Hill last season with Tua had 94 catches for 1408 yards and 8 TDs in 13 games. If we extrapolate those numbers across a full season he would have had 369.8 PPR fantasy points.
Hayden Hurst ran a route on all 7 of Bryce Young’s drop backs.
On early downs last year, Justin Herbert's target depth last year was only 5.6 yards; that was the lowest in a season out of 361 QBs from 2007 onward (min 400 att). However, when Herbert did throw the ball over 10 yards downfield last year, he ranked #5 out of 47 QBs in efficiency (+0.53 EPA/att)
Nico Collins was targeted at the 20th highest rate in the NFL last year among all WRs.
Dolphins rookie RB Devon Achane gained 104 total yards on 15 touches against the Falcons in his first pre-season game.
• 41 Receiving Yards
• 25 Rushing Yards
• 38 KR Yards (1 return)
Most games of 30+ fantasy points since 2020, flex players only:
• 17 - Davante Adams (2023 ADP: WR10)
[…]
• 11 - Justin Jefferson (WR1)
• 8 - Henry, Kupp (WR4)
• 7 - Ekeler, Hill (WR3)
• 6 - Kamara
• 5 - Taylor, Jacobs, AJB (WR6)
Cam Akers’ competition for touches in 2023:
• Ronnie Rivers (14 touches last year)
• Zach Evans (6th round rookie)
• Kyren Williams (195 lbs, 5th round in 2022)
Khalil Herbert averaged 5.6 yards per carry (3.3 before contact, and 2.3 after).
Tight Ends to Post a 22%+ Target Share in their 2nd Season:
• Jimmy Graham
• Mark Andrews
• George Kittle
• Kyle Pitts
Baker Mayfield 29% and Daniel Jones 27% had the Highest Rate of Targeting RBs in 2022. Saquon Barkley & Rachaad White both caught 50+ passes in 2022.
List of players who saw under 100 rushing attempts but ranked very high in missed tackles forced per attempt:
• Javonte Williams - .34
• Alexander Mattison - .31
• Tyrion Davis-Price - .27
• Jaylen Warren - .25
• Rashaad Penny - .23
• Elijah Mitchell - .23
Running backs who lead the league in runs over 15 yards/attempt in 2022, min 80 att:
• James Cook - .12
• Breece Hall - .10
• JK Dobbins - .10
• Tony Pollard - .09
• D’Andre Swift - .08
• Rhamondre Stevenson - .08
• Nick Chubb - .08
• Ken Walker - .07
• Jeff Wilson - .07
• Kenyan Drake - .07
Amon-Ra St. Brown is a dark horse candidate to finish as the WR1 overall
• 2.40 yards per route run (8th)
• 22 redzone targets (7th)
• Tackled inside the 5-yard line 6 times
• ARSB’s 14 healthy games paced out: 169 targets for 123-1,383-7
• He’s due for more TDs in 2023 after being tackled on the 1-yard line 4 times!!
Positive Lions notes for ARSB:
• 12 dome games
• 5th in team PPG at 26.6
• WR2 Jameson Williams suspended 6 games
• Lions have 227 vacated targets (4th)
Amon-Ra St. Brown became the fifth 2nd Year Receiver to post a 25%+ Target Share and 90+ PFF Grade. The prior four (Justin Jefferson, Odell Beckham Jr., Michael Thomas and Brandon Marshall) averaged a WHOPPING 19.2 PPG in Year 3.
Joe Mixon was on pace for 91 targets last year with Samaje Perine there. Now Perine is gone.
George Pickens was tied for 9th with 33 targets when he was tightly covered, but third in receptions with 16 (behind only Davante Adams and Mike Williams). His 48.5% catch rate on tightly-covered targets led all qualifying WRs.
Last season Dalvin Cook was 12th in yards after contact (3.12), tied for 14th in missed tackles forced (0.21), and was 20th in explosive gains of 10+ rushing yards (4.5%).
2022 Tight Ends by Route Participation Rate:
• Mark Andrews (83.4%)
• George Kittle (78.1%)
• Travis Kelce (77.6%)
• Dallas Goedert (76.3%)
• Greg Dulcich (75.9%)
Dak Prescott was 3rd in success rate (rate of plays that generated positive EPA) only behind Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.
Cold Water:
Trey Lance career pass attempts:
• 99 HS pass attempts
• 318 College pass attempts
• 72 NFL preseason attempts
• 102 NFL regular season attempts.
Justin Fields went 3 for 3 50+ yard TD passes Saturday: 2. Justin Fields 50+ yard TD passes last year: 3
Running backs that had over 100 carries last season but averaged under 1.5 yards after contact:
• Kenyan Drake
• Michael Carter
• Brian Robinson
• Joe Mixon
• Leonard Fournette
• Antonio Gibson
• Rachaad White
• Damien Harris
The Patriots must have the slowest offense in the league:
• QB Mac Jones (4.83 forty at Pro Day)
• RB Rhamondre Stevenson (4.64 at Pro Day)
• RB Ezekiel Elliott (4.47 at his Combine, but prob 7.47 now)
• WR Juju Smith-Schuster (4.54)
• WR DeVante Parker (4.45 in 2015)
• WR Kendrick Bourne (4.68)
• TE Hunter Henry (4.68 at Pro Day)
DJ Chark’s Route Tree…
Highest carry % vs 5 or less box defenders last season (min 150 att):
• James Conner: 7%
• Jonathan Taylor: 4%
• Devin Singletary: 3%
• Travis Etienne: 3%
18% of Conner's fantasy points came on these plays, none of which were TDs.
Among RBs with 50 or more routes run, Ezekiel Elliott was 84th of 89 with 0.48 YPRR.
Last year Elliott ranks among 42 RBs with at least 100 rush attempts (per Fantasy Points Data)
• Yards after contact per attempt: 35th
• Explosive Run rate: 30th
• Missed tackles forced per attempt: 35th
It took Adam Trautman 28 games to reach 434 career receiving yards. Greg Dulcich had 411 in his first 10 games.
The Fun Stuff:
The Jaguars targeted 20 different players during their preseason debut.
Anthony Richardson wears many hats
Kyle Shanahan confirmed that the plan was to sign Philip Rivers to the Super Bowl had they won the NFC Championship game.
Jalen Tolbert with an IMPRESSIVE TD grab
QB Teddy Bridgewater is reportedly wearing #50…
Garrett Wilson, elite WR and elite troll
I’ve never seen a chip this big on someone’s shoulder before
“The Browns is the Browns,” after all
Darnell Washington insane catch
Writers ADP Takes
We usually avoid including our personal feelings about players in the newsletter. The goal is to include data based analysis from a variety of writers out there. With that said, we thought it’d be fun for one or two of us to sometimes weigh in each week on a player’s ADP that is too high/low, which is many times based on some of the analysis we come across each week:
Tyreek Hill's performance last season alongside Tua showcased his immense potential on the new Dolphins offense. Last season Tyreek Hill with Tua had 94 catches for 1408 yards and 8 TDs in 13 games. This includes three games where Tua departed early. Projecting these exceptional numbers across a full season, Hill's PPR fantasy point total would have soared to a remarkable 369.8. Numbers that would have placed him above 2022’s WR1 Justin Jefferson.
With the prospect of a robust offense and an anticipated full season partnering with Tua, Hill emerges as a formidable contender for the coveted WR1 spot. Though I place him at my WR3 rank, I firmly believe Hill deserves consideration as the third overall pick instead of the sixth. While seemingly a minor distinction, this disparity could yield significant gains at the top of the draft. -Cam
May I suggest including teams and potentially positions of lesser known players like Nico Collins, who you referenced this week?