From Bell Cow to Ground Beef RBs
Welcome back!
2 Weeks in the book and we’re about to give you all the information you need to bring your team to 1-2!
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And now to the headlines.
Analysis & Hype:
Falcons target leaders Weeks 1-2:
• Bijan Robinson (11)
• Mack Hollins (10)
• Drake London (8)
• Kyle Pitts (8)
RB Efficiency (YFS and Missed Tackles per Touch) through Week 2. Bijan Robinson is him!
James Cook:
• 10th-lowest stuff rate
• 11th-highest MTF/att
• 11th-best Yards after contact/att
• Currently the RB12… with zero touchdowns
Jordan Addison climbed from a 67% route rate in the opener to 78% Thursday night.
D'Andre Swift saw 77.7% of Philly's running back rushes Thursday night to go along with a 13.6% target share. No Philly back hit those marks (or better) in a single game last year. Miles Sanders was above a 70% RB rush share and 10% target share just once.
C.J. Stroud is the first rookie QB in NFL history to make a Week 1 start with over 45 dropbacks without throwing a single interception.
C.J. Stroud currently has more passing yards (626) than Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, a higher completion percentage (63.7%) than Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence, more completions (58) than Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa, a higher passer rating (91.2) than Matthew Stafford and Daniel Jones, and the most pass attempts without an INT by any player this season.
RBs with 10%+ of their runs going 15+ yards
• Jahmyr Gibbs
• Najee Harris
• Breece Hall
• Gus Edwards
Jahmyr Gibbs saw heavily increased usage:
Snap Share
• Week 1: 27%
• Week 2: 48%
Route Participation:
• Week 1: 25%
• Week 2: 59%
Total Touches:
• Week 1: 9
• Week 2: 16
Last season, DeVonta Smith posted a 25.4% Target Share and 14.9 PPG despite playing with AJ Brown on a low volume passing offense. This season, he’s posting a 26.8% Target Share and 20.4 PPG despite playing with AJ Brown on a low volume passing offense.
Over the past calendar year, Nico Collins ranks 16th at WR in target per route run rate and 17th in yards per route run. Collins while on the field over the past year:
• 27.7% target share
• 34% receiving yardage share
• 50.9% air yardage share
Tank Dell's Week 2:
• 82.5% route rate
• 10 targets (21.3% share)
• 7-72-1 line
Through 2 games the passer rating when targeting Cowboys CB Trevon Diggs is 1.0. The passer rating of throwing the ball at the dirt every play is 39.6.
Players with 30% + of their team PPR points scored so far...
• Mike Evans - 34.2%
• Garrett Wilson - 33.2%
• Christian McCaffrey - 32.4%
• Tyreek Hill - 32.3%
• Davante Adams - 31.7%
• Bijan Robinson - 31.1%
• Puka Nacua - 30.6%
• Tony Pollard - 30.2%
Kyren Williams played 95% of snaps this week and was in on 87% of passing routes
Leaders in RB Opportunity Share (Target or Carry) through two weeks:
• Christian McCaffrey 43.9%
• Derrick Henry 41.6%
• Zack Moss 40.7%
• Josh Jacobs 39.8%
• James Conner 38.1%
• Miles Sanders 38.1%
• Brian Robinson 36.8%
• Tony Pollard 36.8%
• Ken Walker 34.6%
• Joe Mixon 34.3%
QB Leaders Through Wk 2 (Excluding MNF)
• TDs: T1.) Jordan Love: 6
• Passer Rating: 1.) Love: 118.7
• Adj Yds/Pass Att: 1.) Love: 9.92
• EPA/play: 1.) Love: 0.48
End zone target leaders through the first two weeks:
• Jake Ferguson: 7
• Zay Flowers: 5
• Tyreek Hill: 5
• Zay Jones: 5
• Calvin Ridley: 5
Justin Fields' 2022 Points through 2 Weeks - 24.2
Justin Fields' 2023 Points through 2 Weeks - 32.2
Chargers Tight End Snaps - Week 2:
• Donald Parham - 34 (20 routes)
• Gerald Everett - 28 (16 routes)
• Stone Smartt - 22 (11 routes)
Through 2 weeks, how often QBs are throwing to open windows and their accuracy on those throws. Bryce Young needs help.
Marvin Mims ran 5 -- FIVE -- routes against the Commanders. He was targeted twice on those routes and caught both passes for 113 yards and a touchdown.
Some guys who have averaged almost as many yards per route run as Jakobi Meyers (1.98) since the start of the 2022 season:
• Ja'Marr Chase (1.97)
• DeAndre Hopkins (1.97)
• DeVonta Smith (1.95)
Target per route run rate at WR through two weeks:
• 40% - Puka Nacua
• 37% - Tyreek Hill
• 34% - Jayden Reed
Only RBs with 100% of the Goal Line Work:
Derrick Henry
Rhamondre Stevenson
Joe Mixon
Saquon Barkley
James Conner
Rachaad White
Brian Robinson
Alex Mattison
David Montgomery
Here are the top five tight ends in % of routes run from a WR spot through two weeks:
Mike Gesicki - 96.9%
Kyle Pitts - 88.1%
Mark Andrews - 86.6%
Dalton Kincaid - 81.0%
Evan Engram - 76.4%
Cold Water:
Taysom Hill has more rushing yards than Najee Harris so far this year.
Storm watch for Ravens/Colts, Commanders/Bills, and Jets/Patriots games this weekend.
When asked why he has been playing too robotic so far this season, Justin Fields answered “coaching”.
Kareem Hunt's ranks among 48 RBs with 90+ carries last year:
• 41st in yards per carry
• 35th in Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt
• 44th in PFF Rush Grade
Throws behind the line of scrimmage: Justin Fields has attempted 16 such throws (3rd most in the league). He has a completion percentage of 50% -- worst in the league by over 10 percentage points.
C.J. Stroud has more games throwing for over 300 yards than Justin Fields
Jaguars Week 2 RB opportunities (carries + targets):
Travis Etienne - 15
D'Ernest Johnson - 2
Tank Bigsby - 0
Jets skill-position ranks in expected PPR points in 2023 (PFF)
• RB: 32nd
• WR: 31st
• TE: 31st
Amon-Ra St. Brown coverage shell splits this season:
Single high (62% routes):
• 0.34 TPRR / 4.40 YPRR
• 42% first read share
Two high (33% routes)
• 0.11 TPRR / 0.26 YPRR
• 13% first read share
DET plays ATL this week, Falcons running alot of two-high this year.
Zay Flowers' Week 1 target share: 47.6%
Zay Flowers' Week 2 target share: 15.2%
On 20+ air yard attempts this year, Mac Jones is 1 for 11. Among qualifying QBs:
• 2.1 YPA (dead last)
• 9% completions (dead last)
• -0.60 EPA/att (dead last)
Antonio Gibson through 2 weeks:
• 14.3% Opportunity Share
• 9 Total Touches
• 72 Yards
• 0 TDs
• 1 Fumble
The Raiders have only had 54 dropbacks through two games. To put that in perspective, both the Patriots and Texans have had over 100.
Injury breakdown of all questionable/out players for week 3.
The Fun Stuff:
Mid-game dance party? Mid-game dance party!
Mike Pence (yes, that one) coming in hot with a bi-partisan take
On today’s episode of surprising middle names, let’s check in with Tua.
Good news Jets fans, next year you’ll be able to watch all of Zach Wilson and Dalvin Cook’s games in once place!
Tom Brady dropping some gems for the next generation (Shedeur Sanders) of quarterbacks.
Mahomes' revised contract will save the Chiefs about $2.5M in salary cap room in 2023. His cap number increases by $10.66M in 2024, $12.16M in 2025, and $18.91M in 2026 over the original deal.
It would seem that the Buccs love Drake.
Unique view of Bijan Robinson torching the Packers.
Eric Bieniemy is in his bag with Brian Robinson
Kyler Murray on his injury recovery “Soon”
Waiver Weapons - Week Three:
As a reminder, Waiver Weapons is a new segment we’re trying out where the three of us each share a player that is on most leagues’ waiver wires who we think you could start that week, or are interesting stashes.
Week 1 Recap: Chris moves to 1-1 on his waiver weapons, unfortunately betting on Allen Robinson (for the 4th year in a row) does not pay off; he feels compelled to point out that this performance was better than Tee Higgins’ vs. the same defense. Camaron moves to 1-1 as Zach Ertz finishes the week as the TE7. And Will continues his streak as Chuba Hubbard finished just inside the top 24 RBs with 10 PPR points.
Chris’ Pick: Kendre Miller, RB, NO (33% rostered on Sleeper). Kendre is taken in a lot of leagues, but chances are good you can still grab him (and even better if you play on ESPN where he is only ~9% rostered). This is a one-week rental before Kamara comes back, but with AK suspended and Williams unlikely to play, it’s a great week to give him a shot. Let’s hope the Saints agree for the sake of my RB-desperate teams (we miss you, Saquon 😢).
Camaron’s pick: Desmond Ridder, QB, ATL (12% rostered on Sleeper). Last week we got to see the Atlanta passing attack take a step forward as the Packers were successfully able to make the Falcons throw. This week the Falcons play the Lions who have shown to be an effective offense so far, but with a banged up secondary and a disappointing defense already, Ridder could once again be setup to finish inside the top 12.
Will’s pick: Tyjae Spears, RB, TEN (28% rostered on Sleeper). Tyjae hasn’t had a huge amount of opportunity, but he’s been efficient with his touches. He turned 8 rushes into 49 yards last week, and caught two balls for six yards. He’s the kind of player that could pop any given week, and stand as a solid handcuff should Derrick Henry miss any time.
No mention of how Kyren Williams Rush Yards Over Expected is straight up dogshit?