FF Newsletter 2023 issue 1!

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Oooooooh baby! We’re back!

Training camps get rolling next month, which means we’re getting a jumpstart on the wild speculation and completely irrational narratives part of the offseason.

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Announcement:
Also pretty excited to share that Chris Smith & Camaron Edgecomb have joined the FF Newsletter team.  Chris and Cam are two fellow fantasy football junkies that will help bring even better content to the newsletter each week, so I’m stoked to have them on board.

And now let’s get to the good stuff.

Analysis & Hype:

Only 8 WR’s have averaged 15+ PPG as rookies since 2010:
-Julio
-Evans
-OBJ
-MT
-Jefferson
-Chase
-Waddle
-Brandon Aiyuk
7/8 have posted *at least* 1 top-12 finish. 

99% of Top 12 WRs over the last decade have these two stats in common. Here is the secret to finding these future WR1s:
-119/120 WR1's (99%) played on a team that finished in the Top 20 in pass attempts or scoring average
-And 84/120 WR1's (70%) played on a team that finished in the Top 20 in BOTH passing and scoring

Treylon Burks' rookie season paled in comparison to Drake London, Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson. But… 1.75 yards per route run for Burks last year.
Notable YPRR marks from 2021 rookies:
-Jaylen Waddle - 1.75
-Amon-Ra St. Brown - 1.74
-DeVonta Smith - 1.73

Target shares last season when Chris Olave and Michael Thomas were on the field together:
-29% Chris Olave
-21% Michael Thomas

These are the 8 WRs who finished as a top-30 scoring WR in at least two-thirds of games over the last 2 years [0.5 PPR]
-Cooper Kupp (92%)
-Justin Jefferson (76%)
-Deebo Samuel (76%)
-Keenan Allen (73%)
-Ja'Marr Chase (69%)
-Tyreek Hill (68%)
-DeAndre Hopkins (68%)
-Stefon Diggs (67%)

No player, AT ANY POSITION, got more two-minute drill* targets last season than Pat Freiermuth (26 Targets)

Massive playoff performances that didn't count for fantasy football points in 2022, but you should still probably remember they happened:
-Marquez Valdes-Scantling (8-116-1)
-Gabe Davis (6-113-1)
-Gerald Everett (6-109-1)
-Isaiah Hodgins (8-105-1)
-Dalton Schultz (7-95-2)

“Jordan Addison is being woefully under drafted in best ball and eventually, redraft.” Last Season’s percentage of routes per dropback:
-Justin Jefferson: 94.1%
-Adam Thielen: 91.9%
-KJ Osborn: 80.9%

In an interview with John Harbaugh, @jmthrivept sheds light on Ravens WR Rashod Bateman's progress. Having already “undergone a second surgery to remove hardware”, Bateman's recovery is on track, providing encouraging signs for his availability in 2023. Barring any setbacks, Bateman should be cleared and ready to contribute to the Ravens' receiving corps.

Rashod Bateman is a RD1 WR who’s produced 800 receiving yards in his first 17 NFL games.  Of the 32 RD1 WR’s drafted before him (since 2000) to put up 800+ yards in their first 17 games, 28/32 (87.5%) put up *at least* one 1,000-yard season.

James Conner fantasy football ADP:
2022: RB15, pick 35
2023: RB28, pick 88

Doesn’t feel like Justin Jefferson is still just 24 years old. He’s a few weeks younger than Christian Watson. Prime is still ahead of him.

We like lists. So here are a few lists.

These three wide receivers going after pick 100 can help you find real WR production at a cheaper price:

• “Tyler Boyd is as boring as it comes, but he has been a top 35 PPR WR each of the last 3 years. He has had at least two top-12 fantasy weeks in each of the last three years and averages 17.2 PPR points per game when Tee Higgins is out of the lineup (last 2 years). Sometimes boring is good for fantasy.”

• “From weeks 10-13 in 2022, Nico Collins out-targeted Brandin Cooks while they were both active. The 2022 Texans were 32nd in offensive yards per play; it is hard to imagine CJ Stroud not improving this offense. Nico is amongst the cheapest players in fantasy football in 2022 who projects to lead his team in targets.”

• “Tyquan Thornton's positional coach in college believes it is possible that Tyquan has the ability to fill the Will Fuller role in the Bill O'Brien offense being installed in New England. The Patriots let Jakobi Meyers walk in FA and replaced him with an over-ripe JuJu Smith-Schuster (who is missing from OTAs). In addition, Thornton was the star of May practices for the Patriots.”

3 Dark Horse Players with a chance to finish as the RB1 overall in fantasy football this year:

• “Breece Hall was the RB6 in Fantasy before he got hurt last year, and had just finished as a Top 15 RB in five straight games. Breece is also 1/6 RBs to ever get a 99 overall pre draft grade from Next Gen Stats; every single one has a Top 5 fantasy finish except Travis Etienne.”

• “Rhamondre Stevenson finished as the RB7 last year - and Damien Harris' 12 touches per game are now gone from the Patriots’ offense. On top of that, Rhamondre was targeted on 27% of his routes in 2022; that rate was 3rd in the NFL behind only Ekeler and Christian McCaffrey last season. He has also been lining up all over the field in camp so far, and should be the centerpiece of his offense this season.”

• “Tony Pollard has finished in the top 5 in rush yards over expected the last two years while also being the NFL's 3rd best RB in yards after contact - which will come in handy with Zeke leaving 254 touches up for grabs on what should be one of the best offenses in the NFL. He averages 19.2 Fantasy PPG in games with over a 50% share of the snaps, which would have been a Top 3 RB in both 2021 and 2022.”

Cold Water:

The Steelers traded Chase Claypool to the Bears mid season:
PIT was 2-6 with him, 7-2 without him
CHI was 0-9 with him, 3-6 without him
Both passing attacks were much more efficient without Claypool
CHI before trading for Claypool: 7.5 YPA
CHI w Claypool on the field: 5.5 YPA

Boutte boutte boutte boutte drop him everywhere! - ShaSean Shonson

Tyreek Hill is under police investigation after allegedly hitting a man at a marina in Miami on Sunday.

Backup RB Workloads:
Henry BEHIND Murray in 2017: 39.7% Carry Percentage
Hunt BEHIND Chubb in 2020: 40.0% Carry Percentage
Pollard BEHIND Elliott in 2021: 31.7% Carry Percentage
[Alexander] Mattison BEHIND Cook in 2022: 18.3% Carry Percentage
”One of these is NOT like the others.”

Alexander Mattison is heading into his 5th Season and has NEVER eclipsed…
8.0 Fantasy PPG
35.0% Carry Percentage
8.0% Target Share
1.20 Yards per Team Rush Attempt
0.50 Yards per Team Pass Attempt

James Robinson has been released from the Patriots.

“Saquon Barkley Rumors: Giants RB 'Real Threat' to Hold Out Without New Contract.” He has until July 19th to sign his franchise tag.

Dallas has run 192 plays in goal-to-go situations the last 3 years with Mike McCarthy as HC… and mobile QB Dak Prescott has just 12 rushing attempts

Rather wide ADP discrepancies between teammates who both profile as starters in 3-WR sets (could also be considered hype for the lower-valued guys)
-Christian Kirk (WR27) vs. Zay Jones (WR54)
-Brandin Cooks (WR43) vs. Michael Gallup (WR58)
-Elijah Moore (WR45) vs. Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR72)
-Courtland Sutton (WR48) vs. Tim Patrick (WR87)

Did we mention we like lists? Here’s one more:

“6 players to let your idiot friends take in fantasy football:”

• “Mike Williams will be 29 in October (two years past prime WR production age), saw his efficiency drop 15% in 2022, and the Chargers just drafted his replacement. Draft Terry MacLaurin instead.”

• “Kyle Pitts was extremely efficient last year: #5 in yards per route run, #1 in targets per route, and #1 in TE deep targets. So why did he finish so poorly (TE22) last year? The Falcons threw the 2nd fewest times, leaving Pitts with just 5.9 targets per game, and the pass-offense was bottom-10 in efficiency. Considering Atlanta spent a Top-10 pick on an RB, it would seem they have no plans to change their scheme, and it’s unlikely QB Desmond Ridder will significantly increase the pass efficiency.”

• “Anthony Richardson goes as a Top-10 QB in redraft, ahead of Kirk Cousins & Geno Smith. This is a mistake - he’s being drafted at his ceiling. Sure, he averaged 55 rush YPG at Florida in 2022, and mobile QBs are a fantasy cheat code… but he also completed just 54% of his passes in 2022, and perhaps more alarmingly, 3.6% of his passes were intercepted - 3x more than the average 1st round QB.”

• “OBJ is a major guy to avoid, even at his current 9th round ADP. He’ll be 31 this season, he’s coming off his 2nd ACL tear, and we haven’t seen him play football in 18 months. When we last saw him he wasn’t great, either: Odell was 77th in WR efficiency in 2021. He struggled to consistently separate & produce after the catch- and now he’s 2 years older with more competition (Flowers, Bateman and Andrews). Draft Zay Jones instead.”

• “Rashaad Penny, now an Eagle, is also going in the 9th round - ahead of Elijah Mitchell. Kenneth Gainwell led the backfield in Super Bowl carries, D’Andre Swift has entered the picture, and Jalen Hurts was top-5 in red zone carries last season; meanwhile, Penny has missed 51% (more than half!) of his career games.”

• “Gabe Davis has never finished as a Top-35 WR, despite being attached to Josh Allen for three years. He was extremely inefficient in 2022, ranking 68th in targets per route and 67th vs. man coverage. He also enters 2023 with additional competition in the form of first-round TE Dalton Kincaid, who accounted for 34% of his team’s production in college. Despite all of this, he’s still being taken ahead of guys like Jahan Dotson and Brandon Cooks.”

The Fun Stuff:

Cardinals x Texans Trade BTS

Brian Daboll Playbook Leak

Justin Fields Stretcher

Bill Belichick Can’t keep getting away with it

Anthony Lynch or Marshawn Richardson

NFC Beast Kings

Will this Matt Stafford trend continue into its 7th year?

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