*UPDATE* Everyone’s a Little Bye Curious This Week
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UPDATE: Sorry y’all - we hit send a bit early this week before the trade target recap was finished, but you’ll find that in its completion below. Best of luck as the deadline approaches!
Hey, guy who drafted Ja’Marr Chase, Josh Allen, and Alvin Kamara! Guess what? You’re starting MVS, DeVito and Roschon Johnson this week, and you’re gonna like it. Bye-pocalypse, byemageddon, whatever you want to call it - it’s here. Why the NFL chose to give six teams a bye this week and have none in Weeks 8 or 13 is beyond us, but we stopped trying to figure out why the NFL does things when they started requiring teams to declare their intent to attempt onside kicks (which, in case you didn’t know, tend to work better when they’re a surprise).
You can either look at the glass as 6/32 empty or 26/32 full, and we’ll choose the latter - there’s still plenty to talk about this week! If you, like us, can’t get enough football-y goodness, then make sure to check out (and subscribe to!) our premium Discord for round-the-clock news and specific advice for your fantasy leagues from almost 200 other members.
Now without further ado, let’s get to the good stuff.
Analysis & Hype:
Only four QBs average over 0.4 EPA/Play this season:
• Lamar Jackson
• Josh Allen
• Kyler Murray
• Tua Tagovailoa
Contested targets this season (PFF):
• Jauan Jennings: 18 (caught 11)
• Rest of 49ers WRs combined: 23 (caught 9)
Jauan Jennings is averaging more Fantasy points per route run (0.57) than Justin Jefferson (0.56). In three games as a full-time player, he is averaging 29.3 PPR points per game on target shares of 40%, 32% and 39%.
Against the NY Jets, Anthony Richardson posted:
• The highest PFF Passing Grade (80.3) of his career.
• The highest completion percentage (66.7%) of his career (min. 20 attempts).
• The highest Y/A (9.1) of his career (min. 20 attempts).
• The most passing yards (272) of his career.
Anthony Richardson threw a catchable ball on 10 of 11 throws traveling 10+ air yards in Week 11; that was the highest rate (91%) of any QB with 10+ of such attempts.
Browns pass-catchers in three games with Jameis Winston under center:
• Cedric Tillman: 18.7 PPR points per game (would be WR6 on the season)
• Jerry Jeudy: 17.8 (WR8)
• Elijah Moore: 13.6 (WR25)
• David Njoku: 14.7 (TE3)
Target shares in 3 full games with Anthony Richardson:
• Michael Pittman: 24.3%
• Josh Downs: 17.6%
• Alec Pierce: 14.9%
Buccaneers remaining QB opponents:
• Tommy DeVito
• Justin Herbert
• Bryce Young (2)
• Gardner Minshew
• Cooper Rush
Targets in the six games Tee Higgins has played this season:
• Tee Higgins: 58
• Ja’Marr Chase: 49
Players with 150+ receiving yards on four targets or less this century:
• Torry Holt
• Terrance Williams
• Calvin Johnson
• Devery Henderson
• Terrell Owens
• Rashid Shaheed
• Isaac Bruce
• Christian Watson
Khalil Shakir:
• 25% target rate
• 2.04 YPRR
• 80.5 PFF Rec Grade
Justin Herbert is the only QB with a big-time throw percentage above 7.0% & a turnover-worthy throw percentage below 3.0% this year.
Best Pass TD/INT ratio in the NFL this season:
• Justin Herbert: 13.0
• Lamar Jackson: 8.3
• Joe Burrow: 6.8
Taysom Hill:
• Ran 18/30 routes (60%)
• Caught 8/50 on 10 targets.
• 7 Rush attempts for 138 yards
• 3 Rushing TD’s.
• 2 Pass attempts.
Players who have exceeded expectations the most, in terms of producing more Fantasy points than expected by the Fantasy Points Data XFP model:
+65% — Taysom Hill
+51% — Derrick Henry
+49% — Tucker Kraft
+47% — Mark Andrews
+47% — Jayden Reed
+46% — Sam LaPorta
+42% — Marquez Valdes-Scantling
+40% — Amon-Ra St. Brown
+39% — Jahmyr Gibbs
+38% — Quentin Johnston
+38% — A.J. Brown
Puka Nacua's ranks this season:
• WR1 - Targets per route
• WR1 - First downs per route
• WR3 - Yards per route
• WR3 - Fantasy points per route
Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery and Amon-Ra St. Brown all scored TD in the same game for the Lions for the 8th time. That is the MOST instances of a trio of teammates doing so in NFL history.
Jahmyr Gibbs now leads all RBs in explosive run rate (15+ yards) at 10.5%. The next closest RB is almost 3 percentage points behind at 7.6%. Gibbs also has the lowest % of stuffed runs of all RBs (33.1%), and is forcing missed tackles at 3rd highest rate (23%).
Chase Brown has averged 23.5 fantasy points since the Zack Moss injury.
Brock Bowers is on pace for 1,203 receiving yards. That’s second place of all rookies in 2024.
Brock Bowers has 70 catches, the most of any rookie in Weeks 1-11 this millennium. (Yes, that includes Puka Nacua, who had 69 after Week 11 in his record-breaking season last year.)
The average drive vs the Eagles in Oct + Nov: 5.1 plays - 19.3 yards - 1.03 points
Quentin Johnston has the 4th most receiving touchdowns in the entire NFL this year, behind only Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and George Kittle.
Bo Nix was the first rookie ever to complete over 80% of his passes for over 300 yards and throw 4 TDs.
Total TD among rookie this season
• Bo Nix - 19
• Jayden Daniels - 14
• Drake Maye - 10
• Caleb Williams - 9
Chris Boswell has more fantasy points than any tight end in the entire NFL this season.
Cold Water:
Over Jayden Daniels’ last seven games, he's failed to log a single finish inside the top 10.
Jayden Daniels fantasy points per game from just rushing:
• Before rib injury: 8.7
• After: 2.8
Javonte Williams Snap Counts:
• Week 9: 54%
• Week 10: 29%
• Week 11: 52%
Targets in Russell Wilson's 4 games":
• Darnell Washington: 14
• Pat Freiermuth: 10
Only three players have averaged fewer than 3 yards per carry among 96 players with more than 25 carries this season:
• Trey Sermon
• Zamir White
• Deebo Samuel
Kyren Williams has been the RB27, RB22 and RB25 since Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua returned.
Aaron Jones inside the five-yard line this season: 8 carries, -7 yards, 1 TD.
Jonathan Taylor 17-game pace of 320 carries, 1430 rushing yards, 11 rushing TDs. RB16 in points per game.
Nico Collins on Monday Night:
• 47% snaps
• 55% routes
T. Hill (Dolphins) 11.9 fantasy points/game.
T. Hill (Saints) 13.2 fantasy points/game.
Over his last four games, AJ Brown has achieved a 29% target share for only 6.3 targets and 11.6 fantasy points per game.
Jaylen Waddle target share/PPG by year:
• 2021 - 24.8%/15.3
• 2022 - 21.6%/15.2
• 2023 - 23.4%/14.2
• 2024 - 16.7%/8.0
TJ Hockenson snap shares first three games back: 45%, 46%, 48%.
Ranks among WRs in expected PPR points per game over the last 6 weeks:
• A.J. Brown: 34th
• DeVonta Smith: 74th
Most times tackled at the one-yard line and did NOT score a touchdown on the same drive this season:
9: Saquon Barkley
...
4: Javonte Williams, Kareem Hunt
Xavier Worthy has run 83 routes on which Mahomes was pressured. Mahomes has only targeted him five times, completed one of those, for six yards.
The Chicago Bears have averaged 1.1 points in the first quarter of games this season.
Waiver Weapons - Week Twelve:
Each week, Camaron and Chris highlight a player who is available in fewer than 33% of fantasy leagues, and who they believe you can start for the upcoming week (excluding kickers and defenses). The waiver weapons keep on surprising, Chris’ pick MVS was the WR22 in PPR scoring with 16.7 points and while Camaron’s pick Kayshon Boute only put up 7.3 points, he is now third on the team in targets on the season. The second year receiver could be a big fantasy surprise moving forward. It’s the byepocalypse so lets get to these deep cuts.
Camaron’s Pick: Justice Hill, RB, BAL (32% rostered on Sleeper) - The story of Justice Hill’s workload is entirely around the team’s defense. If the Ravens get behind and have to start throwing, then the Ravens will bring in Hill to be their third down back instead of Henry. This week the Ravens play the Chargers with a combined over/under of over 50 points. With how well the Chargers offense is playing, and how bad the Ravens defense has been this game could get ugly quickly leaving Hill an opportunity to put up a good PPR score.
Chris’ Pick: Roschon Johnson, RB, CHI (29% rostered on Sleeper) - Kamara, Bijan, Cook, Etienne, Breece and Chase Brown are all on bye this week. Maybe you don’t care too much about Brown because you got him cheap and have other options, and maybe you’ve moved on from Etienne at this point, but odds are if you drafted one of the other guys you have a big hole left in your roster to fill this week. I’m not saying Johnson will fill that big hole for you (pause), but the pickings are probably slim at this point in the season - and doubly so when you consider the fact that the owners of those other RBs are also clamoring for replacements. Johnson’s coming off a hot week, where he scored and saw his utilization spike (10 carries out of 24 across all CHI RBs) - there are certainly worse options out there, and probably not many better ones.
Trade Target Thursday:
By this time next week, it’s highly likely that your league’s trade deadline will have passed; Yahoo’s already did, and while ESPN didn’t publish a default trade deadline for 2024, based on last year’s default and a swing through my leagues it looks like 11/27 at 12 PM ET. We’ve had a good run this season! I hope you’ve found this section helpful to your fantasy football journey, and had half as much fun (or more - hopefully more!) reading it as I have writing it.
This week, we’re doing things a little differently, revisiting each week’s picks in short order to see a) how they turned out, and b) whether I would still buy in (since it’s your last chance to do so). After this week, you won’t see “Trade Target Thursday” in your inbox any more, but the memories we’ve made (via one-way email communication) will live on forever. Now that I’m crying a little bit, let’s get down to business:
Week 2 (when we started): Josh Jacobs - RB14 in PPR from Week 3 onward, so you got a high-end RB2 (about where he was drafted). I would still buy in; his total production is weighed down by the early weeks of the season (which I said would probably happen), but he has posted three top-10 finishes in his last six games.
Week 3: George Pickens - WR16 in PPR from Week 4 onward, so a mid-range WR2, but well above his ADP of WR26. I would still buy in, and in fact am more inclined to do so now with Wilson seemingly taking him to new heights; that said, yesterday’s price is not today’s price.
Week 4: Tee Higgins - WR13 in PPR from Week 5 onward despite missing three of those seven games; on a per-game basis over that span, Higgins is the WR2 with 23 PPR points (ironically, right behind Ja’Marr Chase). I’d say he’s still a buy based on talent/production, but he is probably too hot to touch right now coming off of last week’s performance, and there is the lingering risk of a new “injury” if the Bengals continue to slide (he is on a franchise tag this season).
Week 5: Jalen Hurts - QB1 from Week 6 onward, which is no surprise considering his ADP of QB3 pre-season - good thing we were targeting him in the throes of a slump, when he was QB9 coming off of four rough starts and heading into his bye! If you can grab him at a discount after last week’s performance (and maybe have some leverage if the Hurts owner has other key players on Week 12 bye), do it, but don’t overpay when there are other solid options at QB to trade for.
Week 6: De’Von Achane - RB6 overall in PPR from Week 7 onward, including two finishes as the overall RB2 in that span - a marked improvement over his RB11 ADP and string of finishes outside of the top-30 from Weeks 3-5. I’m not buying any more, though; like I said in the original write-up, this was always a rental play considering his schedule from Week 13 onward. I would actually start trying to sell Achane and move onto Gibbs (who has an easier run the rest of the way).
Week 7: nobody - what started off as me being lazy after too many margaritas actually turned into what I think is THE most valuable piece of advice in this recap: do not force a trade. While more limited at this point in the season, you have options to manage your roster without sacrificing value, and shouldn’t lose out just to get a deal done (except in the instance where you’re throwing in someone you’d be fine with dropping anyway/prefer a waiver player to).
Week 8: Kenneth Walker III - RB28 overall in PPR and RB22 on a per-game basis from Week 9 onward. I will admit this one was a misfire while trying to call a buy-high, and what hurts even more is that I gave up Chuba Hubbard (the RB2 in PPR PPG over that same span) as part of the deal. I wouldn’t buy in if making the choice today - Walker has been struggling and has some tough matchups on the calendar to finish out the year.
Week 9: Bo Nix - QB6 overall in the last two weeks after going undrafted in most leagues (ADP of QB23). I’m a big Bo-liever, and think he is still way underpriced - CBS has him on par with Sam Darnold and Matt Stafford in their latest trade chart - so would absolutely continue buying in. Try to tier-down your QB and grab someone at another position where you’re needy.
Week 10: Isiah Pacheco - obviously too soon to tell how this “went,” but I am certainly still buying; just make sure you get your trade partner to price in the uncertainty around how much Hunt will remain involved. This would especially be a great move if Pacheco is ruled out again this week, as he is almost certainly going to play in Week 13 and you can probably capitalize on desperation to get a steal in the meantime.
Week 11: Nick Chubb - RB30 last week, and has been struggling to find his way back post-surgery. It seems like his role in Cleveland’s offense just isn’t what it used to be, not only in light of his recovery but also in the Jameis era - Chubb is averaging 13 carries per game this season after posting almost 18 carries per game in 2022. I know it’s only been a few weeks, but four games is usually a sufficient sample to make decisions on; I’m back out.
Thanks again for taking the time to read what I’ve written here over these past few weeks, and here’s hoping this recap helps you bring home some championship hardware in 2024. If you do end up winning some cold hard cash (or more likely a digital payment of some sort), please subscribe to our Patreon or send me some on Venmo at @Chris-Smith-91 donate to your local animal shelter; if you don’t, but still appreciated the advice along the way, remember that it’s free to donate your time :)
The Fun Stuff:
CoopAFiasco with the Bengals practice hill break down analysis we all needed.
Justin Trudeau + Thomas Jefferson = Justin Jefferson?
The Chargers social media team with the best edit of the season.
“Yo, I’m gonna call a play that necessitates you getting a completion.” - Mike McDaniel
Bill Belichick says he paid staffers $100 to bat down Tom Brady’s passes at practice, but Brady outbid him by offering $200 if none were knocked down.
From the people who brought you twelve men on the field, it’s the long awaited sequel, fourteen men on the field!
If you’re gonna have twelve on the field, though (and go offsides in the process), you ought to at least stop the other team from scoring…
Jim Harbaugh sends birthday texts.
Chase Young missed the sub, sprinted on the field late, and still made the TFL without ever getting set.
Eddie Lacy was tricking remote work tracking software before it was cool.
Josh Jacobs, mid-run, tells Jaylon Johnson to come hit him.
Eberflus is finally learning what it feels like to be the Bears head coach.
Ja’Marr Chase with the first “wipe the ball’s ass” celebration in NFL history?
Taysom Hill putting “team old guys” on his back.
“I’m not afraid anymore!” - Bengals
Richardson learned this move from Flacco.
Speaking of Richardson - spooky similarities between his fourth quarter comeback against the Jets and Peyton Manning’s first career one.
Biggest single-game yardage difference in NFL History:
1. 1976 Rams (+488)
2. 1979 Rams (+482)
3. 2024 Lions (+475) vs. Jaguars
In case you were holding out hope for Week 14’s Cowboys-Bengals game to be flexed off MNF… blame The Simpsons.
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MVS *also* on bye, btw 🥲