Every Beat Writer Is a Prophet
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Welcome back to the FF Newsletter, and welcome to peak optimism season. Before we get going, please consider supporting the FF Newsletter on Patreon where you will get access to our Discord which includes live draft assistance, bonus links and discussions, and 24 hour access to Chris’ thoughts on how the Jets are ruining his life.
The pads are barely on, but the hype is already out of control. Every training camp clip looks like a highlight reel, every beat writer is comparing a rookie to Jerry Rice, and we’re all nodding seriously while watching a 240p sideline video of a guy doing pass blocking drills.
We’ve got rookie risers, camp darlings, overreactions, and exactly one grainy frame of your sleeper TE catching a ball in the background that you’re using to justify a 16th-round reach. (And honestly? We support you.)
Let’s over analyze together.
Analysis & Hype:
Friendly reminder that training camp isn’t the end all, be all.
Rushing production on scrambles last season:
• Drake Maye: 45 scrambles, 407 yards, 2 TD
• Lamar Jackson: 45 scrambles, 405 yards, 0 TD
Jaguars running backs in 2024:
• Yards per carry - Tank Bigsby: 4.6, Travis Etienne: 3.7
• Yards after contact per carry - Bigsby: 3.7, Etienne: 2.5
• Missed Tackles Forced per carry - Bigsby: 0.27, Etienne: 0.11
• Rush yards over expected per attempt - Bigsby: +0.74, Etienne -0.28
• PFF Rushing Grade - Bigsby: 74.6, Etienne: 62.8
WRs with 20+ TDs since 2023:
• 24 JaMarr Chase
• 24 Mike Evans
• 22 Amon-Ra St.Brown
• 20 Ceedee Lamb
• 20 Jordan Addison
Highest passer rating when targeted in 2024:
1. Mark Andrews 140.9
2. Jayden Reed: 137.5
3. George Kittle: 135.2
Colston Loveland is the only Tight End to EVER post a 34%+ Target Share in College.
Calvin Ridley last year in 11 games without DeAndre Hopkins:
• 7.6 targets per game (24.1% share)
• 13.3 expected PPR PPG (WR26)
• 13.6 PPR PPG (WR28)
Receptions per game leaders in 2024:
• J'a’Marr Chase: 7.5
• Malik Nabers: 7.3
• Puka Nacua: 7.2
• Trey McBride: 6.9
There are 164 active WRs with 100+ career targets. Rashid Shaheed leads that group with 10.4 career yards per target.
2. Ladd McConkey (10.3)
3. Justin Jefferson (10.2)
4. A.J. Brown (10.1)
5. Jameson Williams (9.8)
David Njoku's 17-game pace with Joe Flacco (extrapolated from a 5-game sample in 2023):
• 153 targets
• 103 receptions
• 1,326 yards
• 14 TDs
Jameson Williams' 17-game pace from Week 10 onward last year:
• 119 targets
• 81 receptions
• 1,309 yards
• 10.6 TDs
George Kittle has logged 6 seasons with 180+ PPR points since being drafted in 2017. Dalton Schultz did it once. Every other Day 3 tight end drafted since 2017 has combined for zero.
Here's the list at WR. The few hits from Day 3 really skew our perception about how uphill of a battle it is.
• ARSB - 4
• Puka Nacua - 2
• Hunter Renfrow - 1
• Darnell Mooney - 2
• Jauan Jennings - 1
• Khalil Shakir - 1
• Russell Gage - 1
Team target share when actually on the field in 2024:
• Puka Nacua 41.1%
• Rashee Rice 40.3%
• Malik Nabers 37%
Hollywood Brown (editors’ note: recently injured, severity unclear) led the Chiefs in air yards after his return from injury last season.
PFF tracks "threat %", which is percentage of targets per receiving snaps. Here's the top 10 from last year among WRs with at least 300 snaps (+ Puka's 297):
• Puka - 37.4%
• Nabers - 29.8%
• Nico - 28.5%
• Lamb - 28.3%
• Josh Downs - 27.5%
Dont’e Thornton, the Raiders’ new rookie WR, ran a 4.30s 40 and is getting reps with the first team at practice.
Here's where Chip Kelly's (Raiders) 4 NFL offenses ranked in pace (seconds per play): 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st.
All six of Kellen Moore’s (Saints) NFL offenses have averaged at least 65 plays per game. For perspective, only four teams averaged 65+ plays per game last year.
James Cook missed one game last year. Ray Davis had 23 touches and 152 yards in that game.
Jonnu Smith has apparently been getting some work at RB (cool side note: this implies the Steelers were in 04 personnel).
Cold Water:
James Cook rushing touchdowns per attempt:
• 2022: 0.8%
• 2023: 2.2%
• 2024: 7.7%
• NFL 3-Year Avg: 3.1%
The age of Sean “Leonardo DiCaprio” McVay’s leading rusher at RB since he became head coach in 2017:
• 2017 - Todd Gurley - 23
• 2018 - Todd Gurley - 24
• 2019 - Todd Gurley - 25
• 2020 - Darrell Henderson - 23
• 2021 - Darrell Henderson - 24
• 2022 - Cam Akers - 23
• 2023 - Kyren Williams - 23
• 2024 - Kyren Williams - 24
Tyreek Hill saw 10+ targets in 21 of his first 36 games with the Dolphins. He saw 10+ targets in 1 of his last 16 games.
All WRs in 2024 with >110 targets and less than 900 yds:
• Wan'Dale Robinson (140 targets for 699 yards)
• Keenan Allen (121/744)
• Michael Pittman (111/808)
• Marvin Harrison Jr. (116/885)
Fantasy football points per game ranks last season:
• CJ Stroud (QB28)
• Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR40)
• Jaylen Waddle (WR51)
• Rome Odunze (WR59)
• Kyle Pitts (TE21)
Lowest average target depth in the NFL during the 2023-2024 seasons: Patrick Mahomes (6.4 yards)
Jayden Reed has run 7 total pass routes with 1-2 WRs on the field over his two seasons. That is 2.6% of the team dropbacks in those sets.
Top scoring Ravens WRs in PPR Points Per Game:
• 2019: Marquise Brown (WR48)
• 2020: Brown (WR43)
• 2021: Brown (WR23)
• 2022: Devin Duvernay (WR61)
• 2023: Flowers (WR31)
• 2024: Flowers (WR32)
JK Dobbins' 2024 season from week 3 on:
• 3.80 YPC (35th/41RBs)
• 0.12 MTF/Att (34th)
• 2.27 YACo/Att (26th)
• 3.6% explosive rush rate (29th)
Sam Laporta did not score more than 16 half PPR points once in 2024. There were 20 individual tight ends who hit this mark in at least one game last year.
Aaron Rodgers’ first pass attempt as a Steeler was a pick.
Mini Draft Guide - Camaron
Last week’s Mini Draft Guide hit the spot and a bunch of you reached out with feedback, questions, and even asked how to support the newsletter. First off, thank you. If you’d like to help us grow, check out our Patreon and get access to the ELITE Discord where we break down drafts in real-time, talk trade strategy, and post charts we probably shouldn’t be proud of. But for now let’s get started on part two of the Tight End strategy and to help me out I have brought back a friend from last year’s draft guide.
Hello, I am the voice of Reddit/Twitter and I think you suck. You brought back those annoying graphs from last year, but you didn’t explain them enough. ALL fantasy football positions are top heavy, not just TEs. We even saw last year that the QB position is perhaps even more steep of a quadratic cliff than the TE. Three of the top six QBs in ADP last season also finished in the top six in PPG. That’s better than TEs who only went 2/6.
You are 100% correct. If we overlaid the lines of best-fit for RBs, WRs, and QBs on last week's TE graph, you’d see a similar spike early and flattening in the middle rounds. Top-heavy production isn’t a TE-exclusive phenomenon. However, a line of best fit does not tell the entire story.
There was something on the graph from last week though that we didn’t talk about that our more analytically minded followers may have already noticed. The graph’s R-Squared value. Let’s take a look at the graph again, but this time we’ll focus in on picks 50-200.
At a basic level, R-Squared represents how well the points on the chart can be explained by the line of best fit. A value of 1.0 would mean a perfect relationship between ADP and fantasy output. A value of 0.179? Almost completely random.
And that’s the key: after the elite tier, TE ADP becomes a guessing game. Your average league-mates will start filling out their starting lineups, not targeting value. So what happens? Mid-round tight ends like this year’s Kelce, Andrews, and Hockenson drift up boards even though their actual fantasy output barely separates them from guys taken 100 picks later.
This is all to say that if Evan Engram is projected score 9.5 PPG at pick 89 and Zach Ertz is projected 7.3 PPG almost 100 picks later, I know which value I would rather have.
The Fun Stuff:
"Bet. I'm about to flush the toilet." - DK Metcalf
Mike Williams may be gone but his spirit lives on in rookie KeAndre Lambert-Smith
If yards were actually this short, Malik Nabers would be on track for almost 8,000 this season.
“7 & 7 thru 3 innings” - JJ Watt
Saquon + Cooper DeJean Alley-Oop
It’s pronounced Bijan.
Jaxson Dart has an absolute CANNON
Ladd ready just in case.
Time to fade Justin Jefferson?
Pacheco working on that route running.
Friendly reminder Quintez Cephus is actually the best WR alive.
Stefon Diggs almost lost the dog on puppy adoption day
"He told me to go check in on the Patriots Hall of Fame. Nothing I can say to come back from that." - Jabrill Peppers
ESPN did Dillon Gabriel dirty with his headshot.
Jared Verse telling the story about his workout with Aaron Donald.
Thomas Fidone hype!
JSN is a real one.
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