Even If Your Team is Also 0-7, The Jets Are Still Worse
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We’re halfway there. Quick - what’re you thinking of - Bon Jovi or SpongeBob? We won’t judge, but put that aside - it’s time to lock in, because we are indeed officially closer to the end of the (fantasy) regular season than we are to its start. Byemageddon is this week (six teams!), the trade deadline is looming, and Seattle’s coaching staff continues to mock me for thinking Kenneth Walker would be a bellcow back this year. Luckily, we’ve got a ton of analysis to help you navigate all that chaos and more over the second half of the regular season… and hopefully the playoffs.
Before we get started pretending everything is okay even though we cost ourselves $50 by benching Bo Nix last week (it’s
- my league has a weekly high score payout that I missed by three points), make sure you add a few minutes on your calendar tomorrow to listen to the new FF Newsletter Podcast (link is to prior episodes - new ones come out each Friday)! has taken the FF Newsletter to the next level, putting together a deep dive on three narratives we’re watching heading into each weekend. Feel free to hit us up in the comments here, our Reddit thread(s), or on Twitter if you have a mailbag question you’d like answered.If you’re looking for even more deep-dive goodness, as well as up-to-the-minute headlines and the greatest community of fantasy players out there, then join our premium subscriber’s community on Discord via Patreon for just $5 a month. Here’s a taste of what we talked about this week:
Valuing keeper rights in a redraft trade
How everyone managed to sleep on Jordan Addison
Whether Joe Flacco could play his way into a QB controversy
All of the outtakes from the Fun Stuff section (we have a great time)
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As always, let us know what stats helped you out in the comments, Reddit, or on Twitter @FFNewsletter! Onward to the news.
Analysis & Hype:
Odds of making the fantasy playoffs (per Yahoo! Fantasy 2024 results):
• 0-7: 3.5%
• 1-6: 7.3%
• 2-5: 19.3%
• 3-4: 40.9%
• 4-3: 66.2%
• 5-2: 85.6%
• 6-1: 95.5%
• 7-0: 98.7%
Yards per rush leaders when initial contact with a defender was met only one yard beyond the line of scrimmage or at/behind the line of scrimmage:
• 3.41 - Jonathan Taylor
• 3.33 - Javonte Williams
• 3.27 - Bhayshul Tuten
Wide Receivers to score 10+ PPR Points Per Game in every game this season (missed games/injuries not included):
• Puka Nacua
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba
• Justin Jefferson
• Jordan Addison
Longest current streaks of double-digit PPR outputs at WR (only including healthy games):
5 - Amon-Ra St. Brown, Emeka Egbuka
6 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Justin Jefferson, George Pickens
10 - Rashee Rice
20 - Puka Nacua
Percentage of runs gaining yards over expectation:
1. Jaylen Warren - 55%
2. Blake Corum - 53%
3. Rico Dowdle - 51%
4. James Cook - 50%
5. Kareem Hunt - 49%
Travis Hunter (91) has run more routes than any player in the NFL over the past two weeks. Only Ja’Marr Chase, Trey McBride, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Drake London have more first-read targets.
Rookie WRs since 2013 to average a +25% Target Share and +35% Air Yards Share:
• Mike Evans
• Justin Jefferson
• Odell Beckham, Jr.
• Chris Olave
• Kelvin Benjamin
• Brian Thomas Jr
• Malik Nabers
• Tetairoa McMillan (the only rookie WR on pace to exceed those averages this season)
EPA Per Designed Rush:
5. Lions: -0.02
4. Chiefs: -0.01
3. Jaguars: -0.01
2. Panthers: 0.02
1. Colts: 0.12
Quinshon Judkins in Week 7:
• 84 rushing yards
• 95 rushing yards after contact
Dak Prescott now has thrown least three touchdowns without an interception in four consecutive games. Other QBs to do that:
• Russell Wilson in 2015
• Drew Brees in 2019
• Aaron Rodgers in 2014
• Peyton Manning in 2013 and 2014
• Tom Brady in 2007
Over the last 4 weeks, Trey McBride is averaging 10.5 Targets/G. Every other TE is below 7 Targets/G.
Trey McBride now has three receiving touchdowns with Jacoby Brissett over his last two games. He had three receiving touchdowns over his previous 21 games with Kyler Murray.
On 100 Justin Herbert dropbacks the last two weeks. Chargers TE Routes Run:
1. Oronde Gadsden: 78
2. Will Dissly: 9
3. Tyler Conklin: 0
Yards per route for Bears WRs:
• Luther Burden: 3.02
• Rome Odunze: 1.80
• D.J. Moore: 1.34
• Olamide Zaccheaus: 1.16
Josh Jacobs has 24 touchdowns in 24 games with the Packers.
Through seven weeks, the Colts are the most efficient offense by points per drive this century.
1. 2025 Colts: 3.46 Points Per Drive
2. 2007 Patriots: 3.19
3. 2018 Chiefs: 3.12
Rico Dowdle finished with 18 touches for 96 yards.
Chuba Hubbard finished with 16 touches for 55 yards.
KC Target Share in one game with Rashee Rice:
1. Rashee Rice: 29.4%
2. Brashard Smith: 24.7%
3. Marquise Brown: 11.8%
3. Xavier Worthy: 11.8%
Bo Nix is the first player in NFL history to record 2+ passing TDs and 2+ rushing TDs in one quarter.
Most receiving yards in a game by a rookie TE (Since 2000):
1. Oronde Gadsden II (164)
2. Kyle Pitts (163)
3. Brock Bowers (140)
4. Sam LaPorta (140)
RBs versus the Dolphins last 3 weeks:
• Quinshon Judkins 22/80/3
• Kimani Vidal 18/124/0
• Rico Dowdle 23/206/1
Aaron Rodgers’ Hail Mary pass attempt that resulted in an incompletion traveled 69.8 yards in the air, the longest recorded pass attempt since at least 2017.
Cold Water:
The Jaguars rank 32nd in the NFL at converting “Catchable Targets” into Catches. Brian Thomas Jr ranks 83rd among 83 WRs, catching just 64.3% of his catchable targets.
Total drops this season:
• 21: Jaguars
• 18: Browns
• 15: Broncos
• 13: Commanders, 49ers
Justin Fields designed runs per game:
• 2025 Jets: 4.2
• 2024 Steelers: 6.2
• 2023 Bears: 6.3
• 2022 Bears: 6.0
Fewest passing yards through 7 games, 2015-2025:
• 871 - 2021 Bears (Justin Fields QB)
• 884 - 2022 Bears (Justin Fields QB)
• 906 - 2018 Bills (Josh Allen QB)
• 1004 - 2025 Jets (Justin Fields QB)
Sack Percentage leaders since 2000:
1. Rob Johnson: 14.05%
2. Justin Fields: 12.12%
3. Will Levis: 11.04%
4. Josh Rosen: 10.63%
5. David Carr: 10.54%
Worst QB this season in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (weights TDs, INTs and sacks in addition to regular yards per attempt): Tyrod Taylor (3.24).
State of the Jets offense: In the last six games, the offense has produced 7 TDs:
• 0 in the first a half
• 1 in the the 3rd Q (43-yard scramble by Fields vs MIA)
• 6 in the 4th Q, all with the Jets trailing by at least 13 pts (includes 4 TDs in the last 4 mins)
Percentage of runs gaining yards over expectation (worst rates):
• 24% - Michael Carter
• 29% - Alvin Kamara
• 29% - TreVeyon Henderson
• 29% - RJ Harvey
Since 2000, among the 18 top-50 overall draft picks at RB who played every game through Weeks 1-7 in their rookie year, TreVeyon Henderson ranks:
• 15th in total opportunities
• 15th in total touches
• 16th in rushing yards
• 16th in total yards
• 13th in PPR fantasy points
Zach Charbonnet in short yardage situations this year (among 44 RBs):
• 38th in EPA/Rush
• 34th in Success Rate
Eagles RB rush yards before contact per carry:
• 2021: 1.9 (1st)
• 2022: 1.8 (4th)
• 2023: 1.9 (1st)
• 2024: 2.3 (1st)
• 2025: 1.1 (21st)
Kyren Williams has been tackled at the one-yard line and did NOT score a touchdown on the same drive a league-high four times this season.
The Cardinals have lost 5 straight games by a combined 13 points.
Drake London’s target share in three games with Darnell Mooney injured/inactive: 41.9%. London in the three games Mooney played: 22.3%.
Worst two running backs this season in yards per carry (min. 50 carries):
• Zach Charbonnet (2.6)
• Saquon Barkley (3.3)
The Raiders finished today with 3 first downs. That’s the fewest by any NFL team since...the Raiders in 2008. A 24-0 loss to the Falcons.
Cam Skattebo’s designed rushing share has dropped for 4 straight weeks:
• WK4 - 64.1%
• WK5 - 62.5%
• WK6 - 55.9%
• WK7 - 50%
Aaron Rodgers and Justin Fields make up 20% of the Jets’ projected salary cap in 2026.
Waiver Weapons
Each week, Camaron and Chris will each share a player that is rostered in < 33% of Sleeper fantasy leagues who we think you could start in a given week (No kickers or defenses). Just to be extra fun, we decide on these players post-waivers so that you can pick them up last minute. Last week was an absolute banger for the Waiver Weapons. Cade Otton was the TE11 on the week, and TE1 Oronde Gadsden looks to be the next big breakout at Tight End. There’s no chance we repeat that success again, but that won’t stop us from trying.
Camaron’s Pick: Isaiah Davis, RB, NYJ (13% rostered on Sleeper) - Regardless of Breece Hall’s status on Sunday, second year running back Isaiah Davis should be a good spot start on desperate rosters like mine whose RB room is looking more like the Raiders in January (they’re not playing). Tyrod Taylor has the worst WR room in the NFL with Garrett Wilson out, meaning that he will need to throw the ball to someone. This should mean a lot of targets to non-wide receivers like Isaiah Davis. Davis has a 7% target share on the season already, so he should have a shot at catching just enough passes to be a PPR fill-in for bye week needy teams.
Chris’ Pick: Alec Pierce, WR, IND (26% rostered on Sleeper) - Pierce has quietly been putting together a solid season when healthy (he missed two and a half games in the concussion protocol). He’s been at or above an 80% snap share in all of his full games - okay, 79% in Week 1 - and is hot off a Week 7 outing where he finished with a career-high ten targets. Next up for the Colts is Tennessee, who allow the 12th-most fantasy points to WRs; before leaving their Week 3 matchup against the Titans part-way through (due to the aforementioned concussion), Pierce caught four of his five targets for 67 yards.
Trade Target Thursday
While Rashee Rice played himself off the trade market last week (no one is letting him go for a price we want), there is still time to buy George Kittle before National Tight Ends Day; you might want to wait another week, though, as the Texans are a stingy matchup vs. TEs. Enough about last week’s targets, though - this week, we’re going after Derrick Henry.
There’s a lot to like here:
He’s already had his bye (although it was last week, so you probably can’t sneak that out of the price).
Heading into it, he looked back to form, posting over 5 YPC on 24 carries en route to a top-15 finish against the vaunted Rams defense.
Lamar is coming back this week, which should hopefully open things up more for him than a Cooper Rush-led offense did.
The Ravens are locked in - they got rid of the ping pong tables in their locker room.
I’m still seeing him valued as an RB1, but a low-end one, which is still a value play if you subscribe to his pre-season ADP as the RB5 overall. It’ll take a lot to get him, but momma didn’t raise no bitch - swing for the fences. People love being part of a blockbuster deal, so much so that they’ll often work quite hard and give up more than you’d expect to make it happen. If you find yourself fortunate enough to have drafted a late round RB like Quinshon Judkins or Javonte Williams in addition to a “name brand” RB1, don’t be afraid to tier down on the big name for Henry plus; if you’re weak at WR, you might be able to send a lower-tier WR along and use some of that “plus” to buy yourself an upgrade worthy of starting. There are plenty of ways to get a deal done, but it all starts with one thing: dreaming big.
The Fun Stuff:
Nate Jones was a DB at Rutgers, was a 7th round pick of the Cowboys in 2004, and had a 7 year NFL career. He’s been an official since 2019, and on Monday he protected the PPR WR1 this season with his body.
Joe Flacco can’t believe Ja’Marr dropped a pass.
Mike Vrabel is a real one.
Tez Johnson just hit every button on the Madden controller.
Penei Sewell is 335lbs and just outran Jahmyr Gibbs.
If Matt LaFleur wanted the press to stay, maybe he should have had three sacks en route to a career day?
Six more flags than the Chiefs will ever see on the field.
Coachspeak speedrun, go!
Ronnie Hickman: “Give it to me Tua.”
Patrick Mahomes on his fourth down “fake” call: “It comes from all my State Farm acting.”
Patrick Mahomes no look pass is back.
Ricky Pearsall, injury magnet (I guess).
No one had “Aaron Rodgers is a big hug guy” on their bingo cards, right?
…they’re only allowed to be so big, though.
OG Steve Avila just hit the funniest 1st down signal.
Most furious and intense towel waver I’ve ever seen.
Most NFL Receiving Yards After Turning 40:
1. Jerry Rice: 2,169
2. Tom Brady: 6
3. Marcedes Lewis: 2
4. Me, You, Everybody else in the history of the world
5. Brett Favre: -2
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