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This is a slow part of the offseason, but we still got some juicy analysis for you this week.
Let’s get to it.
Analysis & Hype:
De'Von Achane and Chase Brown were the only RBs to register a faster ball carrier speed than Derrick Henry in the year 2023.
Bijan Robinson has the 3rd most targets at the RB position in 2023, and the 7th most RB targets all time.
There have only been three TE’s since the year 2000 to post 70+ receptions as a rookie:
• Sam LaPorta
• Jeremy Shockey
• Dalton Kincaid
Calvin Ridley saw 41% of the Jaguars red zone targets in 2023. That’s the highest percentage of any player in the league last year. This is a Brian Thomas Jr. Tweet.
Geno Smith led the league in Big Time Throw % on deep passes for the second straight year in 2023.
Tyreek Hill was the only player in the NFL to account for over 50% of their team’s total air yards when they were on the field. Mike Evans and Amari Cooper were second at 48%.
Alvin Kamara in 2023:
• RB11 in PPR scoring (Despite missing 3 games due to suspension)
• Averaged 17.9ppg (3rd highest)
• 6.6 targets per game
• 75 receptions (2nd highest)
Alvin Kamara, Travis Etienne, Saquon Barkley, Rachaad White and Joe Mixon all finished as top-12 RBs in PPR points per game last season despite none averaging more than four yards per carry
Mike Evans, 2021-2023:
• 1,794 routes
• 20.6% TPRR
• 1.91 YPRR
Chris Godwin, 2021-2023
• 1,705 routes
• 23.0% TPRR
• 1.85 YPRR
Tyrod Taylor led the league last year in big time throw rate AND lowest turnover worthy play rate, on the GIANTS.
Every single RB with 50+ broken tackles last year had 200+ rushing attempts. Except for Jaylen Warren – who broke an absurd 53 tackles on just 149 rushing attempts.
Zach Ertz was on pace for over 100 targets last year before he injured his quad. On a team that had Trey McBride. With Kliff Kingsbury, Ertz averaged ~6.5 targets per game which is a 110+ target pace. They reunite this year in Washington.
Tight end yards per route run, 2023:
1. George Kittle, 2.19
2. Travis Kelce, 1.90
Ja’Lynn Polk SENIOR Season:
• 16.5 PPG
• 18.8% Target Share
• 76.0 PFF Grade
Jalen McMillan JUNIOR Season
• 18.7 PPG
• 20.5% Target Share
• 77.5 PFF Grade
Fastest ball carrier speeds from a TE in 2023:
1. Jonnu Smith (21.15 MPH)
2. Jonnu Smith (20.29)
Some research into how “elite” wide receivers are nearly two-times less likely to hit a sudden age cliff than “good” receivers.
Kyler Murray per-game finishes by year
• 2019 (rookie season): QB12
• 2020: QB4
• 2021: QB4
• 2022: QB5
• 2023 (coming off an ACL tear): QB9
% of 3rd down incompletions which were due to receiver error:
• 28% - Joe Burrow
• 27% - Kyler Murray
• 26% - Matthew Stafford, Justin Herbert
• 23% - C.J. Stroud
• 22% - Dak Prescott
• 21% - Will Levis
• No one else above 20%
For best ball drafters looking to game-stack Weeks 15-17, CHI, GB, MIN, and SEA have a nice pseudo-round robin. Drafting players from 3+ of those teams gives you correlation throughout the whole playoffs.
• CHI: MIN, DET, SEA
• GB: SEA, NO, MIN
• MIN: CHI, SEA, GB
• SEA: GB, MIN, CHI
Cold Water:
Bo Nix had more rushing TDs in college than Jayden Daniels.
Trey Benson didn’t have a single collegiate season with 15.0+ Rushing PPG or 5.0+ Receiving PPG.
Sacks allowed last year
• 85 - NYG
[…]
[…]
• 65 - WAS, CAR
• 64 - TEN, NYJ
• 52 - DEN
• no one else was above 50
Only two QBs last year had at least 50% of their third down incompletions a result of pass inaccuracy:
• NYG Daniel Jones (50%)
• NYG Tyrod Taylor (58%)
Jameson Williams:
• 2019: 6 / 112 / 1
• 2020: 9 / 154 / 1
• 2021: 79 / 1,572 / 15
• 2022: 1 / 41 / 0
• 2023: 24 / 354 / 2
Michael Wilson had 1.36 yards per route run in 2023, which ranked 55th among WRs with 50+ targets. He was still ahead of teammates Marquise Brown, Greg Dortch, and Rondale Moore.
How often did each offense have 3+ WRs on the field in 2023:
• Falcons - 32nd - 18.2%
• 49ers - 31st - 38.8%
Brian Thomas Jr. failed to clear 1.75 RYPTA in college. The only RD1 WR’s in the past 5 years who failed to clear 1.75 RYPTA:
• Henry Ruggs
• Kadarius Toney
In Baton Rouge, Jayden Daniels measured 6’ 3-5/8” and 210 pounds. Over the past two decades, only three quarterbacks drafted in the first round have been roughly as tall and light: Teddy Bridgewater, Alex Smith, and Robert Griffin III.
Wide Receivers drafted in the first two rounds with under 2.00 Yards Per Team Pass Attempt while also having over 2.00 Yards Per Route Run:
• Henry Ruggs
• Mecole Hardman
• Ladd McConkey
David Njoku Targets Per Game In 2023:
• With Deshaun Watson - 5.2
• With the backup QBs - 8.5
In 4.5 seasons, Calvin Ridley has just:
• 2x 1000+ Yard Seasons
• 1x WR1 Finish
• 1x WR2 Finish
• 1x 2.0+ YPRR Season
• 1x 80+ PFF Grade Season
Highest rate of incompletions due to inaccurate passes:
• 43.9% - Deshaun Watson
• 40.6% - Tyrod Taylor
• 38.8% - Trevor Siemian
• 37.7% - Bryce Young
• 36.7% - Lamar Jackson
• 36.2% - Jordan Love
• 36.1% - Trevor Lawrence
• 35.6% - C.J. Stroud
• 35.4% - Aidan O'Connell
• no one else above 35%
First round WRs with fewer than 500 yards in their rookie season have a very low success rate. This is a Quentin Johnston post.
Packers WRs in ESPN's 2023 overall receiver ratings
• T1. Dontayvion Wicks (67)
• T1. Romeo Doubs (67)
• 3. Christian Watson (60)
• 4. Jayden Reed (51)
The Fun Stuff:
James Conner is still awesome
Giants management discussing what to do about Saquon Barkley this offseason.
Jameis Winston workouts never disappoint.
Every Terry McLaurin Career TD so far.
Anthony Richardson looks back to being 100%.
The best in the game at his position with Nick Bosa, CMC, and George Kittle.
Josh Allen home run derby highlight
Rachaad White propaganda.
I guess Pilates is hard, huh Stefon Diggs?
If you thought players being mic’ed up was cool, you’ll love this
The next generation of the Bryant bloodline is thriving, it seems
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