Derrick Henry is Immortal

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Welcome back to the FF Newsletter!

The reports of Kyren Williams’ demise were greatly exaggerated, Brock Bowers has the 2nd most receiving yards of all rookies (Not just TEs), and George Pickens is alive again with Wilson under center. These stories and more, next.

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Now without further ado, let’s get to the good stuff.

Analysis & Hype:

De'Von Achane averages 26.8 PPR PPG in games where he has earned 10+ carries with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa under center. This would rank as the 10th-best RB fantasy season of all time if we extrapolate.

Dontayvion Wicks has led or tied for the team lead in targets per route run over the last four games.

Tyler Allgeier this season (among 42 RB with 50+ carries):
• Yards per carry: 5.7 (tied for 4th)
• Yards over expected per carry: +0.95 (9th)
• Yards after contact per carry: 4.3 (2nd)
• Missed tackles forced per carry: 32.1% (6th)
• Explosive run rate: 21.4% (1st)

Rookie leaders in YPRR per FantasyPtsData:
• Brian Thomas - 2.73
• Brock Bowers - 2.39
• Malik Nabers - 2.35
• Keon Coleman - 2.17

Most games with 5 Passing TDs and 0 INTs:
• Tom Brady: 8 (333 total starts)
• Drew Brees: 8 (226 total starts)
• Peyton Manning: 5 (265 total starts)
• Ben Roethlisberger: 5 (247 total starts)
• Aaron Rodgers: 5 (231 total starts)
• Lamar Jackson: 5 (84 total starts)

Most rushing yards since 2018:
1. Derrick Henry: 9,885
2. Henry after contact: 7,028
3. Nick Chubb: 6,533

Derrick Henry ranks this season:
Rushes: 1st
Rush Yards: 1st
Rush TD: 1st
Yards per Rush: 1st
Rush 1st Downs: 1st
Longest Rush: 1st
Scrimmage Yds: 1st
Scrimmage TDs: 1st

Derrick Henry is up to 935 yards from scrimmage this season. His full-season pace of 2,271 scrimmage yards would tie him for 13th most all-time with Ravens legend Jamal Lewis from his standout 2003 season.

The top scoring players in fantasy football this season:
1. Lamar Jackson - 177.9
2. Derrick Henry - 160.5

There have been seven games in NFL history in which a quarterback had 50+ rushing yards and 5 passing TDs. Lamar Jackson has three of them.

Wide Receivers with a 25%+ Target Share and 2.40+ Yards per Team Pass Attempt:
• Justin Jefferson
• Malik Nabers
• Nico Collins
• AJ Brown
• Chris Godwin
• George Pickens

Alexander Mattison is averaging over 20 touches per game in October.

Joe Mixon has at least 124 yards and a TD in 75% of his games this season.
Derrick Henry has done this in 57% of his games.
Saquon Barkley has done this in 50% of his games.
Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall are each at 14%.

Christian Gonzalez in his first 6 games faced the following WRs: Jamarr Chase, DK Metcalf, Garrett Wilson, Brandon Aiyuk, Tyreek Hill, Tank Dell and gave up 28.2 yards per game in coverage. Last week Brian Thomas had 71 yards in coverage against him.

Brian Thomas Jr. is the 1st player with 500+ rec yds on 30 or fewer receptions through 7 career games since Randy Moss in 1998.

Troy Franklin averaged 1.23 fantasy points per game the first 4 games and has averaged 8.2 FPPG his last 3 gms.

A Pittsburgh Steelers QB has finished as a QB1 in fantasy in 4 out of the last 5 games.

Rachaad White has double-digit touches in every single game this year & is pacing for another 65 receptions on 70 targets.

Raiders rookie tight end Brock Bowers is currently eighth in the league in receiving yards (477).

Ken Walker’s been unstoppable man, his healthy 17 game pace:
• 299 Touches
• 1,574 Yards
• 24 TD’s

WR1 options vs the Falcons:
• W1: George Pickens (6-85-0)
• W2: DeVonta Smith (7-76-1)
• W3: Rashee Rice (12-110-1)
• W4: Chris Olave (8-87-0)
• W5: Mike Evans (5-62-2)
• W6: Diontae Johnson (6-78-1)
• W7: DK Metcalf (4-99-1)

Chase Brown's weekly share of backfield touches:
5. 55.5%
6. 63.1%
7. 65.3%

Kyren Williams’ has averaged 21.7 PPR points in his last 13 games.

Only four players have reached 100 career TD receptions faster than Mike Evans:
• Jerry Rice
• Randy Moss
• Terrell Owens
• Marvin Harrison

Anthony Richardson's designed runs this season:
• Week 1: 3
• Week 2: 2
• Week 3: 7
• Week 7: 9

Hunter Henry had an 83% route participation and 25% target share on Sunday.

Rashod Bateman has double-digit fantasy points in 4 of his last 5 games.

Drake London 17 game pace:
107- 1200-12

Dexter Lawrence has been double-teamed on 63.3% of his pass rushes this season, the highest rate faced by any player since at least 2018 (min. 100 pass rushes). Lawrence currently leads the NFL in sacks (9).

Jets RB touches under HC Jeff Ulbrich:
• Breece Hall: 41
• Braelon Allen: 6

Amari Cooper was limited to a 34% route participation in his first game as a Bill. Still led the team in targets per route (42%) and fantasy points (16.6).

Brock Bowers is the first TE in the modern era with 100+ PPR points through an initial seven games of a career.

Brock Bowers is now 15th all time in catches by a rookie TE in a season with 47. He is 40 catches away from the all time rookie record for TEs, and 60 away from the rookie record of all positions (107 by Puka Nacua).

David Njoku in first game without Amari Cooper:
• 23.6 fantasy points
• 80% routes
• 29% targets
• 19% air yards

George Pickens expected PPR points per game with Justin Fields = 12.5.
Pickens expected PPR points with Russell Wilson in Week 7 = 20.8 (2nd among WRs on the week).

In their past four games, the Detroit Lions have scored more touchdowns (18) than Jared Goff has had incompletions (15).

Week 7 snap rate:
• 67% - Tyrone Tracy
• 22% - Devin Singletary
Route participation:
• 69% - Tracy
• 15% - Singletary

Deebo Samuel on the field without Brandon Aiyuk since 2021:
• Targets: 38%
• Air yards: 41%
• Yards per route run: 4.88

Kyle Pitts has posted 5+ targets, 65+ receiving yards, & double-digit fantasy points in 3-straight games.

Javonte Williams' first 3 games:
• 55% snap rate
• 8.0 carries per game (33% share)
• 2.2 yards per carry
• 3.7 targets per game (10% share)
Last 4 games:
• 63% snap rate
• 12.3 carries per game (44% share)
• 5.1 yards per carry
• 4.5 targets per game (16% share)

Thursday night’s game was the first time in Javonte Williams’ career that he had multiple rushing touchdowns in the same game. His 26.1 fantasy points were the most he’s scored since Week 13 of his rookie season in 2021 (29.8).

Rushing yards in their first seven career games:
• Cam Newton (266)
• Bo Nix (255)

Demario Douglas has a 40.5% target share when sharing the field with Drake Maye.

Marvin Harrison Jr. in six healthy games:
• 26% targets
• 35% targets vs. man
• 41% air yards share

PFF credited James Conner with 15 missed tackles forced on the ground last night. That's the highest single-game mark of the 2024 season.

Running backs averaging 20+ carries per game this year:
• Kareem Hunt
• <end of list>

NFL teams are averaging a combined 246 rushing yards per game this season, the most through seven weeks since 1990. The average of 4.53 rushing yards per attempt this season is the highest through seven weeks since 1970.

Percentage of rushes coming vs. 'stacked boxes' for Najee Harris: 20% - Justin Fields at QB, 5% - Russell Wilson
Percentage of Harris rushes coming vs. 'light boxes': 29% - Fields, 52% - Wilson

Packers WRs when all three have been on the field in 2024 (46 routes):
• Targets: 9 - Jayden Reed, 9 - Romeo Doubs, 8 - Christian Watson
• Air yards: 140 - Doubs, 127 - Watson, 96 - Reed
• Receiving yards: 179 - Reed, 99 - Doubs, 89 - Watson

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Cold Water:

20 QBs and 16 NHL players have scored more points than Daniel Jones at MetLife stadium since 2023.

Malik Nabers target per route run rate splits:
• 45% -- QB not pressured
• 19% -- QB pressured

Cowboys K Brandon Aubrey didn't practice on Wednesday because of jury duty.

The Texans have a 27% success rate when running the ball on first down. This ranks 30th in the NFL.

DeAndre Hopkins' ranks among 74 WRs in ESPN receiving metrics:
• Open Score: 25th
• Catch Score: 24th
• YAC Score: 64th

Most rush attempts this season with 1 or less rush touchdowns:
• Josh Jacobs (120 carries, 1 rush TD)
• De'Von Achane (71, 1)
• Rachaad White (61, 0)
• Rico Dowdle (59, 0)
• Tyler Allgeier (56, 1)

Per NFL Pro, Xavier Worthy this year vs press: 27 routes, 3 targets, 0 catches.

After six games, the Kansas City Chiefs' leading receiver is Rashee Rice with 288 yards. Rice hasn't had a catch for the Chiefs since Week 3.

Justin Herbert threw for 349 yards with a 97.1 passer rating tonight. No other QB in NFL history has thrown for that many yards with that high of a passer rating and yet had his team fail to score an offensive TD and lose the game.

Justin Herbert averaged 8.9 YPA on 39 attempts throwing to Will Dissley, Josh Palmer, Jalen Reagor, and Simi Fehoko.

Entering Week 8, there are 19 healthy RBs who average 13+ fantasy points per game compared to 8 WRs who average 13+ fantasy points per game.

Jordan Mason inside the five-yard line this season:
• 7 carries
• -1 yards
• 1 TD
Mason is the league's only RB to fail to score at least 3 TDs on 7+ goal line carries.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is 11th worst in yards per route run. Much of the bottom 10 are wr's on the Browns and Titans with putrid QB play.

Worst Pass TD/INT rate this season:
• Anthony Richardson: 3/6 (0.5)
• Gardner Minshew: 4/7 (0.6)
• Will Levis: 5/7 (0.7)
• Patrick Mahomes: 6/8 (0.8)

29 different quarterbacks have recorded a top-10 weekly fantasy performance this season. Patrick Mahomes is not one of them.

Rams RB touch shares against Las Vegas:
• Kyren Williams 87.5% (21 touches, 11 routes run)
• Blake Corum 12.5% (3 touches, 1 route run)

Wan'Dale Robinson is 1st in the NFL in targets and 44th in receiving yards.

Josh Downs has never reached 6 fantasy points in a game Anthony Richardson has played in full.

Detroit Lions TE Sam LaPorta has just 15 targets on the season in six games. Ja'Tavion Sanders has 24, Jordan Akins has 18, Johnny Mundt has 17, and Theo Johnson has 16.

Waiver Weapons - Week Seven:

Each week, Camaron and Chris highlight a player who is available in fewer than 33% of fantasy leagues, and who they believe you can start for the upcoming week (excluding kickers and defenses). Last week Camaron had double duty on the waiver weapons and did a worse job with his opportunities than Jalen Reagor. This week Chris is back, so hopefully Camaron’s waiver magic returns with him.

Camaron’s Pick: Sterling Shepard, WR, TBB (24% rostered on Sleeper) - Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are out, meaning somebody has to step up and catch the ball. After Evans went out, Shepard played the most snaps from the slot position of the non-Godwin players suggesting he could attempt to replicate his fantasy magic. Look to start Shepard against a struggling Falcons secondary. (Though McMillan is our preferred long term target).

Chris’ Pick: Russell Wilson, QB, PIT (28% rostered on Sleeper) - By now, those of you who have been paying attention will know that I am a Jets fan. That means I watched the whole game when Pittsburgh played NY on Sunday night. I certainly didn’t expect Russ to finish as QB3 on the week in his first start with a new team, coming off an injury, and against the supposedly best defense in the league (though our secondary was thin) - but he didn’t just cook, he burned us to a crisp after shaking off a little rust in the first quarter. This week, he gets a much more favorable matchup on paper vs. our blue-clad MetLife roommates, so start him with confidence.

Trade Target Thursday:

Hola! Chris here, back from Mexico, and ready to get back to trading. That’s actually a bit misleading, as I did make a trade while I was down there (#MoneyNeverSleeps [or goes on vacation]), and it was a doozy. This week’s trade target (who has technically been in my crosshairs for the last few weeks) is Kenneth Walker III.

Normally this is the part of the section where I would make my case that you should trade for a guy, but that case is self-evident for K9, who is ranked as the RB8 overall in PPR despite missing two weeks and RB4 on a per-game average basis. Instead (and because we’re running out of room in this newsletter), I’ll just jump into some strategic considerations:

• When you’re targeting a top-tier guy, it’s usually going to go one of two ways: you’re giving up a top-tier guy at another position or sending a two-for-one package. My dance partner was thin at RB outside of Walker and Swift, and thus couldn’t afford to give him up for one of my top-tier receivers without a replacement - so I set out to help him add a WR and soften the blow at RB simultaneously.

• With that in mind, you don’t need to give up a similarly valued player at the position they’re losing (lest there would be no point in trading), nor do you have to convince them to accept a major downgrade. Sometimes, all they need is to buy a few weeks to figure out a long-term solution, which is what we ended up doing: I gave up Chuba Hubbard, who should be able to replace most of the lost production from Walker until Jonathan Brooks starts to come online.

• Even in a deal where it feels like you might be slightly losing out in a vacuum, sometimes a two-for-one still makes sense. You have to consider the value of whoever you add from waivers (or don’t have to drop for roster space if you’re bringing a player off IR) as part of the deal, as well as the points gained weekly from starting your new stud + your “next man up” over the two players you traded away.

We settled on Aiyuk + Hubbard for Walker. Unfortunately for my trade partner, that deal is now effectively Hubbard for Walker (though he does retain the right to keep Aiyuk in the sixth round of next year’s draft if he so chooses). It ended up being a fair deal that would have addressed our teams’ respective needs well, and no one sacrificed too much of their starting lineup (Aiyuk was a starter for me out of necessity, but I now have Brown and Kupp back from injury with Puka returning soon as well).

While I would certainly recommend buying Walker (at the right price) if you can manage it, my goal this week was more broadly to try and help you think creatively about how you might get a player of his caliber on your roster. At the end of the day, you only get points for the guys you’re starting, so consolidating when and where you can isn’t a bad idea as long as you have the depth to support it. Happy trading, y’all!

The Fun Stuff:

Keon Coleman had to demonstrate to Amari Cooper what route to run on his touchdown.

Speaking of Keon Coleman, his new commercial is hilarious.

DK Metcalf with the funniest block of the season.

There goes Sonic!

Slaying of The Devil (by St. Michael), artist unknown, late 16th century.

Baker coping with his recent troubles the ol’ fashioned American way: with nicotine.

New banger just dropped - Cowboys fans, you might not want to listen.

Apparently Chad Ochocinco doesn’t stand a chance against this child.

The Raiders lead the league (well, tied for 1st) in one stat since 2012: they have had seven coaches.

AT&T Stadium censored the scoreboard of the Cowboys-Lions game from Week 6.

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