Derrick Henry, Elite WR
Welcome back!
I gotta give another shout-out to Chris Smith & Camaron Edgecomb who’ve joined The FF Newsletter team this year. My work schedule had become a hellscape in recent years, and their additions to the team not only prevented the newsletter from suffering, but has made it even stronger with three sets of eyes on the news cycle each week. Super grateful to both of them. Give ‘em both a follow on X-Twitter.
Now lets get to the headlines.
Analysis & Hype:
For the Dynasty heads out there, you’ll wanna check out this reddit post by u/mogrimwarlock: 2023 Rookie Stock Watch Preseason Update.
Since 2010, only 4 TE’s had a 24%+ College Dominator, sub 4.60-speed, & were drafted in the Top-35 picks:
• Kyle Pitts (10.4 rookie PPG)
• Evan Engram (10.2 rookie PPG)
• Noah Fant (6.9 rookie PPG)
• Sam LaPorta
Pitts, Engram, & Fant all finished 1st or 2nd on their team in receiving yards as rookies.
Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey didn't even register 30% of their team's rushing attempts as rookies. They finished as the RB3 and RB9, respectively. This is a Jahmyr Gibbs tweet. Interesting follow-up post in the replies.
The Lions targeted their backfield 19.3% of the time last year (6th-most). Jahmyr Gibbs is top-5 in receiving efficiency among college RBs since 2014.
Derrick Henry had 398 receiving yards in 2022, behind only:
• CMC (741)
• Ekeler (722)
• Fournette (523)
• McKinnon (512)
• Kamara (490)
• Mixon (441)
• Rhamondre (421)
• Jacobs (400)
Derrick Henry’s rushing ranks last season:
• Carries: 1st (349)
• Yards: 2nd (1538)
• TDs: 2nd (13)
Jerick McKinnon was the RB5 over the 2nd half of the 2022 season, and he had the 2nd most red zone targets in the NFL last year behind only Austin Ekeler.
Over his final 7 games of 2022, Brian Robinson:
• had his first 50% snap share game
• averaged 19.7 carries for 86.2 yards
• totaled 10 carries inside the 10 yard line
• totaled 7 carries inside the 5
• was tackled on the 1 yard line 4x
Kyle Pitts ranked last in Catchable Target Rate among all receivers with 50+ targets last season at 64.9%.
Mike Gesicki has finished as a Top 12 TE in three of the last four seasons, his new team has almost zero competition for targets, and Gesicki is now heading into his prime at age 27.
10 Players posted a 26%+ Target Share on a 10.0+ aDOT in 2022:
• Justin Jefferson
• CeeDee Lamb
• AJ Brown
• Tyreek Hill
• Stefon Diggs
• Davante Adams
• DeAndre Hopkins
• Chris Olave
• Drake London
• Mark Andrews
Top 5 TEs average a 23.7% Target Rate. TEs to exceed that mark last season:
• Travis Kelce
• Mark Andrews
• Kyle Pitts
• Tyler Higbee
• Chig Okonkwo
Rookie TEs to be targeted 25%+ of their routes (min. 150 routes)
• 2010 Jimmy Graham
• 2013 Jordan Reed
• 2022 Chig Okonkwo
DK Metcalf TD% of Targets
• 2019: 7.0%
• 2020: 7.8%
• 2021: 9.3%
• 2022: 4.3%
2022 TDs if he had been at career avg: 11.4 TDs
2022 PPG Rank if he had scored 11.4 TDs: WR12 (15.2 PPG - same as Waddle)
Amon-Ra St Brown went from the WR21 as a rookie to the WR7 in his 2nd year. He also has the most receptions in NFL history through a players first two years, and he was 1/2 WRs in the NFL to be targeted 30%+ of his routes in 2022.
The Cowboys should be more pass-heavy after ranking 28th in early-down pass rate (49.8%) in 2022; in Mike McCarthy's last stint as a play caller (2016-18), the Packers were #1 in early-down pass rate (60.2%) over those three combined seasons.
First round Wide Receivers to post 26.0+ PPG at 19 Years Old in college:
• Dez Bryant
• Ja’Marr Chase
• Michael Crabtree
• Jordan Addison
Chris Olave put up 2.25 yards per route run as a rookie; every WR to do that finished as a Top 7 WR in their second year.
Corey Davis was leading the Jets in receiving & pacing for almost 1,000 yards (995) over the first 6 weeks before getting injured last year – with Flacco & Wilson at QB. Now he has Aaron Rodgers.
From Week 8 on, CeeDee Lamb was the WR2 in fantasy points per game in 2022
There’s only been 7 Running Backs with Higher Draft Capital than Bijan Robinson:
• 6 Posted 16+ PPG as Rookies
• 4 Posted 17+ PPG as Rookies
• 2 Posted 20+ PPG as Rookies
A Rookie RB has finished Top 16 in eleven straight years
A Rookie RB has finished Top 10 in nine of the last eleven years
A Rookie RB has finished Top 6 in four of the last six years
Since the year 2015 - 64.38% of Running Backs drafted inside the top 20 RBs in ADP:
• 20.63% - Busted (lost 10 or more spots of ADP)
• 19.38% - Missed at least 6 games with injury
• 24.38% - Were "Fine" (Lost 1-9 spots of ADP)
Essentially you’ve got a 1/3 chance of hitting on a RB early
Amari Cooper's yearly fantasy finishes (by FPG):
• 2015 - WR27 (13.3 FPG)
• 2016 - WR16 (14.4)
• 2017 - WR32 (11.3)
• 2018 - WR20 (14.4)
• 2019 - WR15 (15.4)
• 2020 - WR21 (14.8)
• 2021 - WR29 (13.5)
• 2022 - WR18 (14.5)
WRs with 300+ total targets 2021-2022:
• Justin Jefferson
• Davante Adams
• Tyreek Hill
• Stefon Diggs
• Diontae Johnson
Cooper Kupp was on pace to see 197 targets with Matt Stafford starting last season. Weeks 1-9 when Stafford and Kupp played together, Kupp averaged 24.8 FPPG, which led the league through those 9 games.
QBs with a higher Fantasy PPG than Justin Fields from Week 6 of 2022 on:
• Patrick Mahomes
• Jalen Hurts
Last season, Justin Fields had a 17.6% scramble rate (1st) and a 14.7% sack rate (1st). His sacks had a -1.6 EPA on average while his scrambles had a +0.7 EPA average.
Missed Tackles per Attempt
• 6. Aaron Jones (.26)
• 40. AJ Dillon (.12)
Yards After Contact
• 9. Aaron Jones (3.26)
• 23. AJ Dillon (2.83)
Explosive Run % (Runs of 15+ yards)
• 16. Aaron Jones (5.6%)
• 35. AJ Dillon (3.2%)
James Conner's competition for touches in 2023
• Keontay Ingram (6th round pick, 2.2 YPC)
• Corey Clement (career high 90 touches)
• Ty'Son Williams (3 carries since October 2021)
James Conner ran more routes per game last year than these RBs:
• Christian McCaffrey
• Saquon Barkley
• Rhamondre Stevenson
D'Andre Swift ranks among 45 Qualified RBs (per Fantasy Points Data):
• Explosive Run %: 2nd
• Explosive Rec %: 8th
• Yards per Route Run: 6th
• Missed Tackles Forced/ATT: 5th
• MTF/REC: 10th
• Yards After Contact/ATT: 5th
• YACO/REC: 9th
Every TE with 15+ Red Zone Targets in 2022:
• Travis Kelce - 30
• David Njoku - 20
• TJ Hockenson - 19
• Mark Andrews - 18
• Cade Otton - 16
• Gerald Everett, Dalton Schultz, George Kittle, Tyler Higbee, and Zach Ertz - 15
RBs with 40+ Red Zone Touches (Carries + Targets):
Austin Ekeler - 68
Jamaal Williams - 62
Ken Walker - 52
Miles Sanders, Dalvin Cook, CMC - 46
Joe Mixon, Najee Harris - 45
Travis Etienne - 44
Derrick Henry - 42
Nick Chubb, Ezekiel Elliott- 40
In 2022, Quentin Johnston ranked top-5 among Power 5 WRs in his draft class in:
• YPRR (2.86)
• YAC/R (7.6)
• Missed tackles forced (17)
The Chargers have ranked top-5 in pass attempts every season since Justin Herbert was drafted.
Keenan Allen had a 26.5% target share and produced 2.24 yards per route run in Weeks 11-18 last season.
Marvin Mims’ 8.5 YAC/reception in 2022 was 2nd-best among Power 5 WRs in the class. He did this despite a massive 16.3 aDOT (it’s harder to create YAC on deep targets).
With Jonathan Taylor in a standoff with Jim Irsay and Zack Moss nursing a broken arm, Evan Hull could step up. His 22.4% team reception share in 2022 was 6th-best of any Power 5 RB since 2010 - that’s better than Christian McCaffrey’s best college season (21.1%).
Explosive Run % (Runs of 15+ Yards) Leaders (per Fantasy Points Data):
1. James Cook (12.4%)
2. Breece Hall (10.0%)
3. Tony Pollard (8.8%)
4. D'Andre Swift (8.1%)
5. Nick Chubb (7.6%)
With DeAndre Hopkins now in Tennessee, he leaves 10.7 targets per game in the Arizona Cardinals offense up for grabs.
Kyler Murray is going to scramble less after this torn ACL, but that’s not necessarily bad news for his supporting cast. Before a down year in 2022, Kyler had a great passing year in 2021:
• 1st in Big Time Throw% (8.1%)
• 2nd most Big Time Throws (41)
• 2nd in CMP% (69.2%)
• 3rd in CPOE (+4.2%)
• 3rd in PPF Pass Grade (88.1)
• 4th lowest Turnover Worthy Play% (2.1%)
• 4th in YPA (7.9)
• 7th in ESPN's QBR (63.2)
Arizona Cardinals third round rookie WR pick Michael Wilson is 6’ 2” 209 lbs and is the only player of their perceived top 4 WRs to be above 5’ 9”. Wilson averaged 16.1 yards per catch during his last year at Stanford and was the new coaching staff’s only receiver drafted this year.
Only 3 RBs were top 25 in PPR PPG without also being top 25 in total RB PPR Points:
Breece Hall
Dameon Pierce
Jonathan Taylor
Cordarrelle Patterson
Joe Mixon in 2021: RB4 in PPG, 2022: RB9 in PPG (14 games). Last season he had 75 targets in 14 games (91 target pace) and 28 10Z attempts (2nd in the league).
From Week 6 on, Rashid Shaheed ranked 2nd among all WRs with 2.78 yards per route run. From Week 12 on, he gained 92 more yards than teammate Chris Olave on just 11 more routes.
Christian Watson's 2.26 yards per route run last year was the 7th-best mark from a rookie WR since 2013. The 6 ahead of him:
• Chris Olave
• Ja’Marr Chase
• Justin Jefferson
• A.J. Brown
• Tyreek Hill
• Odell Beckham
Week 7 onward (to include McCaffrey)
• Aiyuk: 23% target share, 9.7 aDOT, 13.8 PPR/game
• Deebo: 21.2% target share, 3.6 aDOT, 11 PPR/game
Great article with a Snake Draft Strategy Review on the best pick to have, when to draft a QB, when to draft a TE, and what positions to target with the top 2 picks.
• Picks 2-6 every year have a statistical advantage, which was even more so last year
• Drafting a QB early is having more and more success every year
• Travis Kelce continues to be an absolute difference maker on fantasy teams and his positional advantage is better than any other players.
• First round RBs are still giving a bigger edge than top WRs.
Since 2017, here are the hit rates by position in the mid rounds/RB deadzone:
• RBs - 33.76%
• WRs - 46.97%
• QBs - 45.45%
• TEs - 41.46%
The data suggest that rounds 4-7 should be the area of the draft you stack WRs & grab an elite QB
PJ Walker's touchdown to DJ Moore was the longest completed throw of last season traveling 67.6 yards in the air. (Sam Howell was 8th).
Jamarr Chase told Joe Burrow “I told him, in all honesty, I don’t want him there… As long as you’re there after week five and on, we’re good, brother.”
Every QB that played 6 or more games and averaged less than 10 yards rushing per game last season averaged 13.18 ppg.
Cold Water:
Titans (cc: Hopkins and Burks) Team Pass Attempt Rankings by Year:
• 2022: 30th
• 2021: 26th
• 2020: 30th
• 2019: 32nd
• 2018: 31st
• 2017: 28th
Just 2/120 Top 12 WRs came from a team that was bottom 5 in pass attempts since 2013
Among 33 20+ PPR PPG WR seasons since 2010, just 3 of them weren't drafted as their team's WR1 per ADP:
• Kupp behind Woods in 2021
• Deebo behind Aiyuk in 2021
• OBJ behind Victor Cruz in 2014
Reason for skepticism on the ceilings of guys like Waddle, Higgins and Devonta Smith
Miles Sanders hasn't caught a TD pass since 2019, and hasn't topped 28 receptions in a season since then.
The Fun Stuff:
Fade Christian McCaffrey
For a guy with pick in his name, George Pickens is pretty bad at picking QBs
James Cook name change inbound?
They say don’t trust coachspeak… but a tee shirt feels different
Rodgers Gardner legendary handshake
👋 That’s it for now. Join our community on Patreon and get access to our Discord chat, where everyone shares and discusses the beast headlines/analysis, daily. You can also follow us on Twitter, where we browse over 1,000 analysts and beat writers and retweet/post all the good stuff.