Welcome back!
Week 8 is where a lot of teams start to face make or break weeks. Let’s go get over the hump 💪
Analysis & Hype:
Jordan Addison has played just seven games, and yet he already has as many career games with 120+ receiving yards and 2+ receiving TDs as:
• Michael Thomas
• DK Metcalf
• Deebo Samuel
• Tee Higgins
Darren Waller is currently the TE5 in FPPG. Since Week 5 (among 42 qualifying TEs), he is:
• 2nd in target share (26.8%)
• 2nd in air-yard share (30.1%)
• 9th in target per route run rate (26%)
• 4th in YPRR (2.29)
• 2nd in first-read share (34.8%)
• 7th in fantasy points per route run
The Jets, his matchup this week, currently allow the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends.
Small sample size, but Trey McBride’s target share on plays without Zach Ertz in 2023 is 24%.
Javonte Williams has an NFL-high 77 touches without a touchdown this season. Nobody else is even over 50.
Puka Nacua target share Week 1-4 (w/o Kupp): 32.5%
Puka Nacua target share Week 5-7 (with Kupp): 36.6%
Seven WRs have a target share of +30%:
• 34% - Puka Nacua
• 33% - Stefon Diggs, A.J. Brown, Tyreek Hill, Ja'Marr Chase, Garrett Wilson
• 31% - Keenan Allen
A big reason Dallas Goedert has been producing lately is screen passes. Last year he led the league in TE screens. Over the first five games he only had four screens; he has six in the last two weeks alone.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba in first NFL game without DK Metcalf:
• 38-of-59 snaps (64%)
• 22 wide, 16 slot
• 23 routes on 28 Geno dropbacks (82%)
• Team-high 7 targets for a 29% share
• Smashed season-high with 10.3-yard aDOT
• 4-63-1 result
Red zone target shares:
• 58% — Garrett Wilson
• 50% — Amon-Ra St. Brown
• 45% — Davante Adams
• 41% — Cole Kmet
• 40% — Ja’Marr Chase
• 37% — Adam Thielen
• 36% — DeAndre Hopkins
• 35% — Zay Flowers, Stefon Diggs
Ravens backfield snaps played this week:
• Gus Edwards: 28
• Justice Hill: 27
• Keaton Mitchell: 2
D'Onta Foreman target share in Week 6: 4.2%
D'Onta Foreman target share in Week 7: 17.9%
Prior to Week 7, James Cook hadn't seen higher than a 60% running back rush share since Week 1. His share was 76.5% against NE this past Sunday.
Drake London's seen no worse than a 23.3% target share over his last four games. That's resulted in 11+ PPR points in each contest.
Darrell Henderson led the Rams backfield on Sunday with 36 snaps on offense. Royce Freeman had 26. Zach Evans played zero.
Emari Demercado played 78% of Arizona's offensive snaps in Week 7. He saw 93% of the team's running back rushes and a 15.2% target share. Keaontay Ingram didn't play a snap on offense.
Best ever yards per route run among qualified WRs (min 20 targets) through first 7 weeks over the last 15 years:
• 2022 Tyreek Hill: 3.38
• 2011 Wes Welker: 3.4
• 2014 AJ Green: 3.53
• 2016 Julio Jones: 3.53
• 2023 Tyreek Hill: 4.65
Cleveland Browns RB usage following Jerome Ford’s Week 7 injury:
Snap rate:
• 63% — Pierre Strong
• 34% — Kareem Hunt
Rush attempts:
• 8 — Strong
• 5 — Hunt
Javonte Williams has an NFL-high 77 touches without a touchdown this season. Nobody else is even over 50.
Christian McCaffrey has gone 47 consecutive non-injured/traded games with 100+ yards and/or a touchdown.
Brandon Aiyuk has posted a 24%+ Target Share in EVERY week this season.
Sam Laporta: 35 receptions, 377 yards, 49 targets
Darren Waller: 35 receptions, 380 yards, 49 targets
Noah Fant has the 2nd highest YPRR (2.06 YPRR) & 2nd highest PFF Receiving Grade amongst TE’s (79.0) through WK7 – behind only Travis Kelce.
Through seven weeks Garrett Wilson is holding a 30.1% Target Share.
Jonathan Taylor snaps, opportunities and fantasy points:
• Week 5: 16%, 7 --> 4 points
• Week 6: 43%, 14 --> 12 points
• Week 7: 49%, 22 --> 21 points
Baltimore had 126.8% DVOA for yesterday's win over Detroit. That's now the best single game for this season and the No. 14 best single game ever since 1981.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jake Bobo on Sunday:
• 12 Targets
• 8 Receptions
• 124 Yards
• 2 Touchdowns
Drake London target shares by week.
• W1: 6%
• W2: 28%
• W3: 16%
• W4: 24%
• W5: 24%
• W6: 28%
• W7: 32%
Chris Godwin has scored double-digit fantasy points in 29 of his last 35 games (82.8%). He's scored less than 8 fantasy points in ONLY 2 games since the year 2000.
Cold Water:
The Eagles have allowed 103.4 fantasy points to RBs this season. The Broncos allowed 103.1 fantasy points to RBs in Week Three.
This week was the 2nd game in a row where Ezekiel Elliott matched or bested Rhamondre Stevenson in red zone rush share.
• Week 6: Stevenson & Elliott tied at 50%
• Week 7: Elliott 75%, Stevenson 25%
Before Week 7, Jordan Love had the lowest completion percentage of any passer with at least 50 attempts - 35th out of 35, completing 55% of his attempts. (Week 7 Update from the team: Love now ranks 34th out of 35 with a 58% completion rate, a few points ahead of PJ Walker.)
On the season, Christian Kirk has seen 55 targets to Calvin Ridley's 48. Since Week 1, that difference is 52 to 37.
Josh Jacobs failed to hit a double-digit percentage target share for the first time this season in Week 7. He caught just one pass for six yards (8.9% target share).
Brian Robinson played 47.8% of Washington's snaps today, his second-lowest rate of the season. He finished the day with a season-low 47.1% running back rush share and just 1 target.
Darnell Washington the past 2 games with Pat Freiermuth injured: 22 routes, 2 targets, 0 receptions.
Brock Purdy after the play he’s assumed to be in concussion protocol for:
2/6 passing for 20 yards and 2 INTs
Brock Purdy Before that play:
19/24 for 252 yards with 1 TD and 0 INTs
Chris Olave's target share without Alvin Kamara (Weeks 1-3) = 30.8%. Olave's target share with Kamara (Weeks 4-7) = 21.1%.
The Bills have now played 209 snaps on defense without all of Tre'Davious White, Matt Milano, and DaQuan Jones. On those snaps, they are allowing:
• 5.6 yards per play (24th)
• 103.9 QB Rating (30th)
• 54.2% Defensive success rate (29th)
• 53.3% 3rd Down rate (32nd)
In six games together this season:
• Targets: Davante Adams (63), Jakobi Meyers (56)
• Rec-Yds-TD: Adams (40-444-2), Meyers (37-385-5)
• PPR fantasy points: Adams (96.4), Meyers (105.5)
Jameson Williams Sunday:
• 143 air yards
• 0 receiving yards
Sam Howell has been sacked 40 times in 7 games this season. The NFL record for a season is 76.
The Chargers are allowing 310.0 pass YPG in 2023 (no other team is allowing 275+).
The Fun Stuff:
Nothing to see here, just your standard vocabulary mix-up.
Of all the possible screw ups they could have made, this combination has to be in the top-tier of bad.
At least he got a picture, but boy, that’s awkward…
Tyson Bagent (or as Ian Hartitz likes to call him, “T-Bag”) comes from strong stock - 28-time arm wrestling world champion, and fellow T-Bag, Travis Bagent
This was a lot funnier a few days ago before Terrell Edmunds got traded and the Phillies were eliminated, but it’s still pretty funny
Jalen Hurts thought AJ Brown was Julio Jones because of the #11.
D’Onta Foreman TD Celebration was a reference to… something?
Akayleb Evans Limbo celebration for the Vikings Defense.
Amon Ra St Brown in Run Blocking Snaps.
This Jake Bobo Catch.
Tyreek Hill caught fish TD celebration.
Tua Tagovailoa is smooooth with it.
Waiver Weapons - Week Eight:
Last week was an interesting one for this crew. With Chris choosing a player to stash (start Singletary), and Will accidentally choosing a player rostered in 72% of leagues, our only real waiver weapon to judge was Camaron’s Kenny Pickett. While Pickett had his 2nd best game of the season, he only finished as the QB15 which isn’t really what we aim for with this section. This week all 32 teams are playing, though, so there’s options galore.
Camaron’s Pick: Taysom Hill, TE/QB, NO (15% rostered on Sleeper) - While members of our Discord will certainly be disappointed I didn’t pick Jaguars Legend Tim Jones, I think they’ll be happier knowing we’ve got a great option in Taysom Hill. Hill’s new role on the team has been incredible, not only is he getting unique rushing attempts, but he’s also been a good receiving threat. With almost 120 combined yards, 19 touches, and a lot of red zone usage, Taysom Hill remains a cheat code for the TE position. I like him more than Chris’ pick, but it’s a great yin/yang strategy.
Chris’ Pick: Trey McBride, TE, ARI (15% rostered on Sleeper) - If the TE position has been your fantasy Achilles heel, fear not, for the desert may hold a cure. With Zach Ertz heading to IR, the stage is set for Trey McBride to carve out a sizable role in the Cardinals' offense. Though a challenging matchup against the Ravens' robust pass defense looms in Week 8, McBride’s recent uptick in targets (11 over the past two weeks) paints a promising picture. Despite a slow start to the season, his Week 6 performance (4 receptions for 62 yards) and stretch when Ertz was out last season (TE10 in PPR from Weeks 14-18) have hinted at potential lurking beneath the surface. He’s a speculative add with a dash of upside that could pay dividends at one of the shallowest positions in fantasy; especially in deeper leagues or TE-premium formats, making a play for McBride could be a shrewd move to fortify your roster as we march towards the fantasy playoffs - and doubly so if the Ertz trade rumors floating around have any merit.
Will’s Pick: Pierre Strong, RB, CLE (15% rostered on Sleeper) - Kareem Hunt has been playing relatively well, but with Jerome Ford out, the second year RB is a good waiver candidate considering how difficult it is to come by RBs at the moment. Strong had a 99th percentile speed score in his rookie class last year, getting drafted by the patriots in the 4th round of the NFL draft. The Browns traded for Strong during the offseason.
👋 That’s it for now. Join our community on Patreon and get access to our Discord chat and player rankings. You can also follow us on Twitter, where we browse over 1,000 analysts and beat writers and retweet/post all the good stuff.
In the Fun Stuff section, the tweet thread from “Mike McDaniel” regarding the missed call is from a parody account. Check the account profile for proof.
With the changes to Twitter/X, you can’t trust the blue checkmark anymore since anyone is able to just buy it.
"Chris Godwin has scored double-digit fantasy points in 29 of his last 35 games (82.8%). He's scored less than 8 fantasy points in ONLY 2 games since the year 2000."
This is not accurate. I think "2000" was meant to say "2020"? https://stathead.com/football/player-game-finder.cgi?request=1&order_by=fantasy_points_ppr&player_id=GodwCh00