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Teams are starting to report for training camp this week, which means the news cycle will start to heat up with the fun stuff shortly.
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Before we get started with the headlines, I wanted to take a minute to share a Twitter thread I came across from a fantasy analyst regarding mental health which deserves to be highlighted. With so many out there struggling and feeling completely alone, I find one of the most admirable/brave things people can do is step out and share their struggles. It not only helps to remind us that people all around us are going through things we might not see, but it also makes countless others feel less alone. It’s a sincere, beautiful thread, and I hope that it brings some of you hope/comfort. If you’re not already following Dave on Twitter, I’d highly recommend it.
Now here’s the links!
News & Notes:
Mike McCarthy says Dak Prescott is expected to be a full participant at the start of training camp.
“Great chance” Zach Ertz will be on team at start of season. “Been told Zach will be there at start of training camp Tuesday. Zach has been working out in team facility for close to last 2 weeks with teammates. He’s over the issues.”
Tom Brady’s personal trainer/guru recently said he expects Brady to play for 2 more years until the age of 45 which was Tom Brady’s goal.
Deshaun Watson linked to the Philadelphia Eagles, per Adam Schefter.
Analysis & Hype:
If you’re looking for a little bit of hope for Cam Akers, here’s an interesting thread for you.
Here’s a Twitter thread breaking down the injury and prognosis from a Doctor of Physical Therapy.
Beat: “I'm told that Darrell Henderson is "the guy" in LA after Rams running back Cam Akers suffered a season-ending torn Achilles while training yesterday.”
Great Twitter thread looking at some of the backup RBs in the Rams backfield.
One of the better articles I’ve read all offseason: Upside Wins Championships.
More D’Andre Swift hype: “In his 21-year NFL coaching career, Anthony Lynn has called play[s] once — as the Bills interim OC from Week 3-17 in 2016. His tendencies that season: * Game within a score: 51% run-heavy (2nd-highest rate) * Ahead: 55% run (3rd-highest rate) * Trailing: 44% run (highest)”
Clyde Edwards-Helaire tallied 1,100 scrimmage yards in his rookie year, in 13 games, behind the 29th ranked run blocking o-line.
Great Clyde Edwards-Helaire article.
“Since 2012, a total of 28 tight ends have reached 115+ targets in a season. Only ONE of the 28 finished worse than TE5 in half-PPR, that being Dennis Pitta in 2016. Even a low-end T.J. Hockenson target projection is very likely to provide TE5 value as his stone-minimum floor.”
“If you're not convinced T.J. Hockenson is about to join the elites at TE ... Hockenson last season scored the 7th most PPR points by a 2nd-year TE over the past 10 years. Ahead of him: Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, George Kittle, Aaron Hernandez, Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce”
Just remember that Brandon Aiyuk had a 97th percentile rookie year PFF receiving grade.
A perfect visual to demonstrate why you get a TE you truly believe will be elite, or it just doesn’t really matter.
* ADP 4.6
* Projected 45% rush share, 14% target share
* QB (maybe) Taysom Hill
* ADP 17.7
* Projected 46% rush share, 11% target share
* QB (maybe Aaron Rodgers)
Joe Mixon has outperformed ADP expectation on a points per game basis each year since his rookie season. On a cumulative basis, he’s done it in two of his last three.
Austin Ekeler saw more targets per game last season with Justin Herbert than he did in his best season ever with Philip Rivers.
Twitter thread making a case for Taysom Hill being the Saints’ starter.
Wanna talk about consistency... Brandin Cooks has recorded 1075+ yards in 5 of his last 6 seasons (2019 he dealt with concussion issues).
“It will be hard for Eagles' Jalen Hurts to finish outside the top-eight fantasy QBs in 2021 even if he doesn't improve as a passer
Projected rushing over 17 games:
64 scrambles for 466 yds
67 designed rush attempts for 335 yds
That's 110 points before throwing a pass”
Jerry Jeudy rookie year:
157.6 PPR FP
DK Metcalf rookie year
187.1 PPR FP
Jeudy QBs: Drew Lock, Driskel, Rypien, Hinton
Metcalf QB: Russell Wilson
Pat McAfee hyping up Jameis Winston. (video)
In 2019, Trey Lance was 9th in carries (168) and 4th in rushing yards (1,090) among QBs across all of college football. He led the nation in yards after contact (4.1), was 2nd in EPA (0.274), and ranked 4th in fantasy points (1.14) per carry.
Kyler Murray weekly fantasy point totals before hurting the shoulder in week 11 27.3, 33.1, 24.7, 25.1, 27.3, 28.9, 38.1, 37.9, 30.9
Patriots beat says Damien Harris is the Patriots' "surefire No. 1" backfield option.
Twitter thread of hot takes.
Redraft thread: “5 gross players you don’t want to take but should.”
“TIL [RB] Javian Hawkins had a previous connection to Atlanta's offensive line coach, Dwayne Ledford. Ledford was the offensive coordinator at Louisville in 2019 when their offense averaged 33.1 points per game and had a 1,500-yard rusher..... Javian Hawkins”
Josh Jacobs is the most gamescript dependent RB in fantasy: In wins — 21.1 fantasy points per game In losses — 10.3 FPG 17 of his 19 career TDs have come in wins.
Raiders win total is 7.5 — same as the Panthers and Broncos.
“Over 20 years, only 3 tight ends have scored double digit touchdowns on less than 70 targets. Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Gates, and Robert Tonyan. And Gates and Gronk got hurt during those seasons. Either Robert Tonyan is one of the GOATs or he had an outlier season. Your call.”
“Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette each dropped 5 passes last year which tied them for 4th among RBs. They also ranked 113th and 136th in pass blocking, respectively. I'm not saying he'll be fantasy relevant but the door is open for Gio Bernard to play an annoying snap share.”
The Fun Stuff:
Winston’s workout videos never disappoint. It should be noted that this is actually a legit training exercise. But that doesn’t make this less funny to watch.
How we all felt when we saw the Cam Akers news.
Hey everybody, this guy had a good best ball draft!!!
Building an 11-player ‘Space Jam’ team with current NFL stars.
“I love the magical, child-like wonder that Zero RB drafters have for the terrible runningbacks they end up with. It's like watching a little kid play with a cardboard box.”
DK Metcalf isn’t human.
Elijah Moore training.
Some Sweet Brandon Aiyuk catches.
Mike Williams’ highlight catches are always a joy to watch.
Darren Waller going up.
CeeDee Lamb doing footwork drills.
Aaron Rodgers sending a football on its way.
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