CFB25 Stats Unfortunately Do Not Count for Devy Leagues
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Welcome back to the FF Newsletter!
Light news week on Twitter X - it seems like everyone and their mother is busy playing College Football 25. Not to worry though: we still found quite a few gems, and Cam dug into his secret stash of tweets (X’s now?) from the offseason to make sure we’re still able to bring you the fantasy football goodness that you crave and have come to expect here.
Before we get to the good stuff, though, a word from our one and only sponsor - us. Don’t forget that our 2024 Draft Guide and rankings are available to purchase and download for $10. You can also get our constantly updated rankings during the offseason and in-season, as well as access to our premium Discord community (now well over 100 members!), by becoming a Patreon subscriber.
Without further ado, it’s time for some fantasy football factoids.
Analysis & Hype:
Between 2020 to 2022, only 5 receivers saw 432 or more targets:
• Davante Adams (498)
• Stefon Diggs (484)
• Justin Jefferson (476)
• Tyreek Hill (464)
• Diontae Johnson (460)
Davante Adams was targeted 26 times on deep balls of 20+ yards last year. He had ZERO drops on 26 targets, but he caught only 4-of-26. That's because nearly 60% of his targets were inaccurate - the most of any receiver in 2023… or 2022… or 2021… or 2020.
WR’s to average 3.00+ YPRR vs Man Coverage last year:
• CeeDee Lamb (4.44)
• Nico Collins (4.30)
• Tyreek Hill (4.29)
• DJ Moore (3.86)
• Brandon Aiyuk (3.80)
• Justin Jefferson (3.64)
Chargers rookie Kimani Vidal:
• 93.2 PFF run grade (3rd among draft eligible RBs)
• 98 missed tackles forced (most)
• 0.32 missed tackles forced per attempt (12th)
• 53 explosive runs (2nd)
Jaylen Waddle played every game in 2021 and 2022
• 2021: Then-rookie record 104 receptions
• 2022: Leads NFL with 18 yards per reception, nearly 1,400 receiving yards
• 2023: Misses 3 games due to injury, leaves 2 others early, still has more than 70 receptions and 1,000 yards
Sam LaPorta is the first rookie tight end to ever post 16+ TEP PPG in a season.
George Pickens in 2023:
• Yards per Reception: 18.1 (1st)
• Yards per Target: 10.8 (5th)
The RB1 Overall has averaged 79 receptions over the last 11 years. Bijan Robinson had the 3rd most RB Targets in the league last season as a Rookie.
Amon-Ra St.Brown finished tied for 1st among all WRs in Red Zone Receptions (16) & was 4th in Red Zone Targets.
20+ Fantasy Point Weeks Since 2022 (not a leaderboard, just a selection):
• Christian Watson - 3
• Garrett Wilson - 3
• DK Metcalf - 2
• Michael Pittman - 2
• Terry McLaurin - 2
• Drake London - 2
• Chris Godwin - 2
• Chris Olave - 0
QBs with the most 30+ yard passing attempts in 2023:
• Brock Purdy (31)
• Matthew Stafford (28)
• Jordan Love (27)
• Dak Prescott (24)
• Tua Tagovailoa (22)
• Baker Mayfield (22)
If you only count the games that Puka Nacua played alongside Cooper Kupp… Puka Nacua STILL had the 8th highest PPG by a Rookie Wide Receiver ever.
There’s been 10 Rookie Wide Receivers to post 14+ PPG and an 80+ PFF Receiving Grade:
• 8 of them have posted a WR1 Season
• 7 of them have posted multiple WR1 Seasons
• 6 of them have posted a Top 5 Season
This is a Tank Dell post.
Receiving touchdowns since 2020 (including playoffs):
• Gabe Davis: 33
• CeeDee Lamb: 33
• Ja'Marr Chase: 32
• Justin Jefferson: 30
Only 5 RBs averaged greater than 5 targets per game last year:
5. Bijan Robinson - 5.1
4. Christian McCaffrey - 5.2
3. Austin Ekeler - 5.3
2. Breece Hall - 5.6
1. Alvin Kamara - 6.6
Brock Bowers became the first Tight End High School Recruit to post a 30+ PPG Season, then became the first Tight End College Prospect to post 15+ PPG in EVERY Season.
Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews target shares when on the field together:
• Andrews 25%
• Flowers 24%
2023 Jonnu Smith among Tight Ends:
• YAC - 8th
• Broken Tackles - 6th
• 10+ Yard Plays - 12th
Justin Herbert’s Pass TD Rates by Season
• 2020: 5.2%
• 2021: 5.7%
• 2022: 3.6%
• 2023: 4.4%
Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers never averaged below a 4.0% team pass TD rate with Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick. Lamar Jackson averaged a 6.4% TD rate under new Chargers OC Greg Roman.
Highest percentage of targets that went to the RB position in 2023:
• 30% — Russell Wilson (this is a Bo Nix/DEN RB tweet)
• 25% — “NYJ QB”
• 23% — “ATL QB”
• 23% — Will Levis
• 22% — Derek Carr
• 22% — Tua Tagovailoa
These QBs have accounted for the highest percentage of their team’s red zone rush attempts in healthy games (2021-23 seasons):
• 57% — Daniel Jones (2023)
• 43% — Jones (21)
• 41% — Jalen Hurts (23 and 22)
• 39% — Anthony Richardson (23)
• 37% — Justin Fields (23)
• 35% — Lamar Jackson (21)
• 33% — Josh Allen (22), Jones (22)
• 32% — Jackson (22), Allen (23), Hurts (21)
• 31% — Fields (22)
• 29% — Allen (21), Jackson (23)
Jordan Love was asked to design the ultimate play using any NFL players he wanted. For his three receivers, he chose Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, and Romeo Doubs.
Khalil Shakir actually led the Bills in receiving (50.9 yards per game) over Dalton Kincaid (48.7) and Stefon Diggs (48.2) over Buffalo’s final 12 games. He saw 51 fewer targets than Diggs and 26 fewer targets than Gabe Davis in this span.
Najee Harris has never had fewer than 1,000 rushing yards.
The “Elite Rushing QB gets an alpha WR” formula is happening to Kyler Murray for the second time…
• 2020 Josh Allen + Diggs = QB1
• 2020 Kyler Murray + Hopkins = QB2
• 2022 Jalen Hurts + AJ Brown = QB3
• 2024 Kyler Murray + MHJ = TBD
Samaje Perine as a receiving back in 2023:
• 2.09 yards per route run (1st)
• 9.1 yards per reception (4th)
• 81.0 PFF receiving grade (4th)
In the 2nd half of 2023, Isiah Pacheco averaged 20 touches per game and was Top-5 in RB production.
In KC’s four playoff games, Pacheco had:
• 74% snap rate
• 57% route participation
• 20 rushes per game
• 48% red zone opp rate (up from 38% in regular season)
Most receiving yards by a TE last season: 1,020
Kyle Pitts’ receiving yards in his rookie season: 1,026
Evan Engram prior to Christian Kirk's Week 13 injury:
• 7.5 targets per game
• 47.6 receiving yards per game
• 10.4 PPR per game
Engram from Week 13 on:
• 10.2 targets per game
• 73.2 receiving yards per game
• 19.3 PPR per game
RAS (Relative Athletic Score) in Colts offense:
• Anthony Richardson: 10.00 (No. 1 ever among QB)
• Jelani Woods: 10.00 (No. 1 ever among TE)
• Adonai Mitchell: 9.99 (No. 5 ever among WR)
Adonai Mitchell had the lowest Drop Percentage (0.97%) amongst all WR’s with 100+ Targets over the last 2 seasons (1 Drop on 103 Targets).
Cold Water:
Kyle Pitts has always been used as a receiver. Snaps in 2023:
• Inline: 157
• Slot: 353
• Wide: 212
Since 2000, there have been 33 WRs drafted in the top 10 picks of the NFL Draft. Those WRs have finished:
• Top 8: One (3%)
• Top 12: Two (6%)
• Top 24: Six (18%)
Meaning 82% missed Top 24. Marvin Harrison Jr. ADP: WR8.
Weeks 14-18 2023:
• Tyreek Hill WR20
• Garrett Wilson WR30
• Chris Olave WR32
• A.J. Brown WR36
• Jaylen Waddle WR38
• Stefon Diggs WR42
• DeVonta Smith WR44
• Ja’Marr Chase WR70
Among Running backs with over 99 designed rushes. Josh Jacobs was:
• 43/49 in EPA Per Rush
• 40/49 in Rushing Yards over Expected per Rush
“Should I buy the Injury dip data” from 2023
The Fun Stuff:
Josh Allen is trading for Josh Allen
95 seconds of Tyjae Spears making dudes miss
CMC’s makeup routine in the morning
I will not fall for running back squat highlights again… dear god Nick Chubb!
James Conner ... DOG!
Davante Adams after a Jimmy G miss
Calvin Ridley’s footwork
New Dolphins TE Jonnu Smith HATES Buffalo and Bills fans
Daniel Jones is recovering well since his injury last season.
Derrick Henry’s workout routine
Just an NFL team rooting for another NFL team - you love to see it.
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