Cedric Tillman Waiver Awards
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Now without further ado, let’s get to the good stuff.
Analysis & Hype:
Highest single season catch rate by a WR since 1992 when targets first began being tracked (min. 40 targets):
1. 2024 Khalil Shakir (93.3%)
2. 2023 Khalil Shakir (86.7%)
Rhamondre Stevenson's ranks in expected PPR points per game:
• Weeks 1-2: 2nd
• Weeks 3-7: 36th
• Weeks 8-9: 5th
Highest Juke Rate among RBs with at least 75 carries:
• Bucky Irving - 8.4%
• Bijan Robinson - 4.4%
• Joe Mixon 4.0%
Cedric Tillman’s the WR1 overall in fantasy points from weeks 7-9:
• 5th in Yards (255)
• 2nd in TD’s (3)
Most targets over the last 3 weeks:
1. Travis Kelce (33)
t-2. Malik Nabers (32)
t-2. Calvin Ridley (32)
t-2. Cedric Tillman (32)
5. Cade Otton (31)
Travis Kelce is the first 35+ year old with 14+ catches in a game.
Wide Receivers with an 80+ PFF Receiving Grade on a 12+ aDOT:
• Justin Jefferson
• Nico Collins
• AJ Brown
• George Pickens
• Terry McLaurin
Mike Gesicki in four games without Tee Higgins:
• 61.2 - PPR points
• 239 - Air yards
• 282 - Receiving yards
Mike Gesicki has a 24% first-read target rate in four games without Tee Higgins.
Two players have 200+ Standard fantasy points this season:
• Lamar Jackson
• Baker Mayfield
Dalton Kincaid, led the Bills in targets, with a 27.8% target share. He's been at the 24% mark over his last six games after averaging a target share per game rate of 16% over his first three.
Zay Flowers is on pace for 86/1235/6 on 126 targets.
Rico Dowdle without Ezekiel Elliott:
• 80% backfield carry share
• 12.0% target share
Drake Maye ranks:
• 2nd in scramble rate
• 1st in avoided tackles per rush
• 1st in first downs per rush
• 1st in yards per rush
Most rushing yards by a QB, first 4 career starts:
• Robert Griffin III: 198
• Drake Maye: 197
• Jayden Daniels: 171
Jayden Daniels is QB1 in 'catchable ball' rate on throws traveling 10+ air yards (among 39 qualified QBs with 25+ of such attempts).
Tyrone Tracy Jr. over last three games with Devin Singletary:
• 12.3 fantasy points per game
• 65% snaps
• 57% attempts
• 51% routes
• 8% target share
De'Von Achane yards per carry since the bye: 6.96
Dolphins leaders in fantasy PPR points from only receiving production:
• De'Von Achane (85.2)
• Tyreek Hill (84.6)
• Jonnu Smith (66.2)
• Jaylen Waddle (65)
Since Tua has come back he is:
• 53-66
• 465 yards
• 3TDS/0 INTS
• Avg 27ppg
Lamar Jackson currently leads the NFL in passing yards (2,379) and passing touchdowns (20).
Derrick Henry currently leads the NFL in rushing yards (1,037) and rushing touchdowns (11).
Most consecutive games with a touchdown catch in the NFL:
1. Amon-Ra St. Brown (5)
2. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (4)
Garrett Wilson leads the NFL in broken tackles this season (13) – he is averaging 17.4 PPG (WR9).
Garrett Wilson is averaging more fantasy PPG (19.8 PPG) with Davante Adams than without him (16.2 PPG).
Under Shane Steichen, the Colts are now 5-5 with Anthony Richardson and 8-8 with other quarterbacks. In the games Richardson is starting, they're averaging 22.9 points a game. In the ones with Gardner Minshew or Joe Flacco starting, they're averaging 22.8 points a game.
Rookie WRs drafted on Day 3 or not drafted at all since 2006 to post a 80+ Receiving Grade through Week 8: (Minimum 15 targets)
• Jalen Coker
• Puka Nacua
• Tyreek Hill
• Stefon Diggs
The Chargers have allowed 1 rushing TD to RBs this year, easily the best, and they've also allowed the 2nd-fewest receptions to WRs.
Cold Water:
Only three players have 50+ targets with 0 receiving touchdowns this season:
• Trey McBride (60 targets)
• Jake Ferguson (52)
• Elijah Moore (50)
Packers WR contested catch rates among 53 qualified WRs (PFF):
• Jayden Reed (78%, 2nd)
• Christian Watson (75%, 3rd)
• Romeo Doubs (71%, 6th)
• Dontayvion Wicks (0%, last)
Next-Gen Stats has Tyler Lockett is dead last in their "yards after the catch over expected" metric with -41.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been under 60 receiving yards in five of his eight games.
Most dropped interceptions this season (PFF):
1. Matthew Stafford (6)
2. Jameis Winston (5) (Has only played 2 games)
T3. Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Jalen Hurts (4)
Jahmyr Gibbs registered a 36% snap rate in Week 9, his lowest since his first game in the NFL.
DJ Moore took himself off the field with what looked like an ankle injury, during the play.
Highest inaccurate target rates for players with 25+ targets this season:
• No. 6 - Rome Odunze (22.7%)
• No. 8 - Keenan Allen (21.4%)
• No. 10 - DJ Moore (20.0%)
Drake Maye Passing + Rushing Yards: 301
Total Patriots yards of offense: 315
With Joe Flacco against the Vikings, the Colts offense had:
• 6 points, their lowest of the year
• 0 red zone drives, their lowest of the year
• 13 first downs, their lowest of the year
• 227 yards of offense, their lowest of the year
• -0.35 EPA/play, their lowest of the year
Tyreek Hill + Waddle combined yardage this season:
239, 65, 66, 59, 115, 19, 117.
2023 average: 165.5 per game
2022 average: 180.4 per game
Chris Olave head injury history:
• 2020: Concussion
• 2022: Concussion
• 2023: Concussion
• 2024: Oct. 13 Concussion vs. Bucs, Oct. 27: Evaluated for concussion vs. Chargers, Nov. 3: Concussion vs. Panthers (taken to Charlotte hospital).
CJ Stroud pressure rate by week:
• Week 1: 31.6%
• Week 2: 30.8%
• Week 3: 35.3%
• Week 4: 28.3%
• Week 5: 35.7%
• Week 6: 31.4%
• Week 7: 51.7%
• Week 8: 46.2%
• Week 9: 47.8%
NFL-worst rate on the season is 43%.
CJ Stroud:
• 12th in EPA/dropback weeks 1-5 (with Nico Collins)
• 24th in EPA/dropback weeks 5-9 (without Nico Collins)
Most QB1 games allowed:
9- Jaguars
8- Buccaneers
7- Ravens
Waiver Weapons - Week Seven:
Each week, Camaron and Chris highlight a player who is available in fewer than 33% of fantasy leagues, and who they believe you can start for the upcoming week (excluding kickers and defenses). Last week Taysom Hill was the TE5 with 16 PPR points, meanwhile Flacco could not deliver on a good matchup and finished as the QB31.
Camaron’s Pick: Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE, CAR (9% rostered on Sleeper) - We are headed back to the TE well this week the rookie from Texas. Sanders was a highly productive tight end in college that excelled at YAC on designed plays. Sanders has had 5 targets in four of his last five games. With Tommy Tremble out, Sanders could be in line for another top 12 finish.
Chris’ Pick: Khalil Herbert, RB, CIN (37% rostered on Sleeper) - Am I cheating a bit on our 33% threshold? Yes. Is it okay because Khalil Herbert has a bunch of upside while Zack Moss is out indefinitely? Also yes. Chase Brown has been playing great, but you have to imagine that the Bengals wouldn’t have traded for a guy they didn’t expect to use (though admittedly it was only a 7th rounder). Herbert has averaged over 4 YPC in each of his three full seasons in the NFL, and the mere potential for him to take over considerable work in his new Ohioan home is reason enough to roster him. You can start him if you’re in need, too, but don’t hang your hopes on his first week in town being his best.
Trade Target Thursday:
With both the fantasy playoffs and the trade deadline in most leagues approaching fast, it’s time to start thinking about stashes. One guy you should be able to get for cheap right now is Isiah Pacheco. There’s a lot of uncertainty around him, which is what makes him such a great trade target, as all of it should be priced in and net you an even better deal:
When he’ll come back is still up in the air - barring any setbacks, he should be back in the picture just in time for the playoffs. That said, it’s your job to convince whoever has him in your league that they can’t afford to wait and find out whether there’ll be setbacks. They need help now (my favorite line is “yeah, Pacheco will make sure you’re a lock to win the consolation bracket”), and you’re trying to help them!
Another point of concern is what his role might look like with Kareem Hunt in town. Hunt is almost 30 years old, has no explosive (>15 yard) runs on his 111 carries so far this season, and is not a threat in the passing game - Pacheco has as many receptions (7) in his two games this season (one of which he left early due to injury) as Hunt does in five full starts. Of course, you should not mention this to your potential trade partner, and instead remind them that Andy Reid’s ties with Kareem Hunt run deep - all the way back to his rookie season when he led the league in rushing.
Ultimately, you should be buying Pacheco at his floor (based on the worst-case scenario I outlined above for you to gaslight his current owner into believing) and hoping for his ceiling. If it doesn’t pan out, you didn’t give up much for him, and didn’t waste a roster spot either considering he is IR-eligible until his return. If it does, though, you’ll end up with a guy who was going in the second round pre-season for a steeply discounted price; right now, CBS’ trade value chart has him priced around Tank Bigsby or Jameson Williams.
One final thought - I would only make this trade if you pretty much know you’re heading to the playoffs. Sure, you wouldn’t be giving up much either way, but if you’re still on the outside looking in, that capital could be better deployed as part of a two-for-one upgrade. Better to make sure you’re playing in December rather than holding a playoff piece you’ll never use!
The Fun Stuff:
In case you missed it on Sunday.
Blake Bortles is a man of the people.
The Vikings are trying to break world records - just not for football.
The Bills posted a weird, bread-themed history of their ownership over the Dolphins. ELITE trolling if you got the reference.
I got tired just watching this kid run ~150 yards for a chase down, ball strip and defensive touchdown on the same play.
Michael Thomas might hate Derek Carr more than Chris Olave fantasy owners.
Speaking of Derek Carr… double yikes on both his and Dennis Allen’s parts.
Somehow this isn’t a typo: Courtland Sutton just threw a touchdown to Bo Nix on 4th down.
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