Camp is Open - It's Time to Overreact!
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Welcome back to the FF Newsletter!
Before we begin, we need to sincerly apologize for a stat that we shared last week. As u/BootRecognition pointed out on Reddit, Sam LaPorta actually had the second highest PPG in NFL history behind 1961’s Mike Ditka, who averaged 19.04 PPG in 14 games. We apologize for the fault in the statistics. Those responsible have been sacked (yes… pun fully intended).
Training camp has started, which means that all good news about my dynasty players is important and all bad news is irrelevant. We’ve got a mix of the good, the bad, and the Quentin Johnston’s this week - so sit back and enjoy!
…but before you do, don’t forget that our 2024 Draft Guide and rankings are available to purchase and download for $10. You can also get our constantly updated rankings during the offseason and in-season, as well as access to our premium Discord community (now well over 100 members!), by becoming a Patreon subscriber.
Without further ado, let’s go camping.
Analysis & Hype:
Dalton Kincaid posted the 4th most receptions (73) for a rookie TE in NFL history.
Wide Receivers to post 140+ Targets in each of their first two seasons:
• Garrett Wilson
—End of List—
Only one Player in NFL History has had over 8.5 Expected Points Added per Game Since 2000:
• Patrick Mahomes: 11.3
Last year, Rashee Rice started playing 68+% of routes in Week 12. From that point forward (including playoffs):
• 39% Targets per Route Run (WR4)
• 3.42 Yards per Route Run (WR7)
George Kittle route participation by year:
• 2019: 70.8%
• 2020: 79.7%
• 2021: 80.5%
• 2022: 90.0%
• 2023: 95.3%
James Conner among 49 qualified RBs last season:
• Yards per carry: 5 (No. 6)
• Yards over expected per carry: +1.02 (No. 4)
• Yards after contact per carry: 3.9 (No. 2)
• Missed tackles forced per carry: 0.29 (No. 2)
• Explosive run rate: 15% (No. 4)
Will Levis had as many deep-ball attempts (57) as CJ Stroud last year. He played in 9 games.
Kirk Cousins is 3 TDs away from tying Joe Montana in career TDs.
Javonte Williams:
• Led the NFL in broken tackles/attempt as a rookie
• Top 10 in YAC/Attempt as a rookie
• 200+ rush attempts in both seasons he completed
• 50+ targets in 2021 and 2023
• 40+ receptions in 2021 and 2023
• Was on pace for 200+ attempts and 90+ targets in 2022
If only including plays where he shared the field with Cooper Kupp as a rookie, Puka Nacua's target per route run rate (26.8%) was still elite. That's higher than any rate ever posted by Ja'Marr Chase, Garrett Wilson, Brandon Aiyuk, DeVonta Smith or DJ Moore.
On Matthew Stafford's 322 plays where Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua both ran routes:
• Target Share: Nacua - 30.2% (87 Targets), Kupp - 25.7% (74)
• Receiving Yards: Nacua - 829 (53 Receptions), Kupp - 556 (49)
Jayden Reed rookie season
- 94 targets
- 64 receptions
- 793 yards
Josh Downs rookie season
- 98 targets
- 68 receptions
- 771 yards
The play callers whose offenses have the highest YPC since 2017:
• Greg Roman: 5.02
• Norv Turner: 4.82
• Todd Monken: 4.72
• Ben Johnson: 4.70
• Mike McDaniel: 4.62
Russell Wilson had more passing TDs per game than Patrick Mahomes last season.
Tight Ends with 87 or More Targets the Past 3 Seasons:
• Travis Kelce
• Dalton Schultz
• Tyler Conklin
De'Von Achane is 1 of 7 Rookie RBs since 2009 to hit 3+ Fantasy Pts Over Expected per game.
Opportunity Share:
Jaylen Warren - 25.4% Year 1, 43.1% Year 2
Aaron Jones - 39.1% Y1, 56.9% Y2
Alvin Kamara - 38.5% Y1, 58.7% Y2
James Cook - 31.2% Y1, 62.4% Y2
De’Von Achane - 40.6% Y1… Year 2 TBD
Aaron Jones finished the season with 5 straight 100+ yard games; his 85.7 PFF Rush Grade was the 2nd best of his career.
Kyler Murray before the ACL tear averaged:
• 27% more rushing yards/game
• 22% more rushing attempts/game
Looking at Packers WR usage (only when Christian Watson played last season - 11 games including playoffs):
• 3-WR set route rate: Jayden Reed 90%, Romeo Doubs 83%, Christian Watson 75%, Dontayvion Wicks 38%
• 2-WR set route rate: Romeo Doubs 78%, Christian Watson 69%, Dontayvion Wicks 33%, Jayden Reed 3%
Among 24 qualified quarterbacks, Bryce Young ranked 4th in accurate throw rate when targeting an 'open' receiver (not including screens). Number one in ESPN’s Open Score from 2021-23 was Diontae Johnson.
The Detroit Lions only have three games outdoors this season - Weeks 9 (@GB), 16 (@CHI) and 17 (@SF).
Sean Payton has never had an offense outside the top five in expected receiving fantasy points to RBs.
David Montgomery faced the 6th highest rate of defenders in the box last year (7.1), and still set career highs in YPC (4.6) and rushing TDs (13)
Including playoffs, we have a 446 dropback sample size of Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle ALL being on the field together across the 2022-23 seasons. Here’s how the receivers rank on:
Target share
• 27.5% - Deebo
• 22% - Aiyuk
• 16.1% - Kittle
PPR scoring
• 229.7 - Deebo
• 178.7 - Aiyuk
• 133.7 - Kittle
Red zone target share:
• 26% - Deebo
• 14% - Aiyuk
• 14% - Kittle
Curtis Samuel's career QBs and where they've been in EPA per dropback since 2017: Sam Howell (81st), Carson Wentz (35th), Taylor Heinicke (59th), Teddy Bridgewater (29th), Kyle Allen (65th), and Cam Newton (47th).
Running backs with first-round fantasy football ADPs and how many carries they had inside the 5-yard line last year.
• Christian McCaffrey - 17
• Bijan Robinson - 2
• Breece Hall - 1
Cold Water:
“That’s a player who needs to figure out how to stay healthy because you can’t make the team in the training room” — Dennis Allen on Kendre Miller
Cade Otton played the most Offensive Snaps (1,064) of any Tight End since 2015 and finished as the TE20 in PPR.
Kyren Williams ranked dead last in yards per route run among 47 qualified RBs last season
The Arizona Cardinals have not had a WR with 10 or more TD catches in a season since 2009.
Only six Wide Receivers have finished as a WR1 in their Rookie Year. Marvin Harrison Jr’s ADP on Underdog is WR9.
When Marquise Brown dropped 3 touchdowns in one game.
Drake London is the only starting receiver on the Falcons without a 1,000 yard season.
James Cook had 18 carries inside the 10-yard line last season, and only converted one into a rushing TD. Here’s a video of all 18 carries.
The Fun Stuff:
J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards going through bag drills. Edwards is a big dude carrying the football.
“I’m not saying his name. I’m salty.” - Ja’Marr Chase
Kadarius Toney running back highlights.
They might as well just give us the 2028 Gold Medals now.
Nick Chubb (ACL) puts out one video of him squatting 500+, and the market moves him up 10.1 spots in ADP in seven days.
Tom Brady’s special message to Eli Manning: “F**k off”
Buccaneers creamsicle uniform announcement
Legendary man cave upgrade.
Jordan Love will not practice at training camp until his contract extension is finalized.
2nd Year UDFA LB Ivan Pace Jr. will be running the defense this season for Minnesota.
JSN is BACK!
Tank Dell might be kinda small…
“Tyreek needs to work on his pullout game” - Mike McDaniel
CeeDee Lamb was up until 3 am playing CFB 25 and still managed to make his 7 am workout.
Kirk Cousins pulling up for practice or Ultra Music Festival?
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