Anthony Richardson Going 1.01 in Fantasy Basketball Drafts
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Analysis & Hype:
BAD NEWS: Kenny Pickett posted the lowest TD rate (1.8%) of any rookie QB (min. 12 starts) since 1990. GOOD NEWS: Since 2000, the average for sophomore 1st round QBs: 4.6% (min. 12 starts)
Teams with two top-24 RBs in PPR points/game last five years (min 8 games)
• 2022 DAL (Pollard RB8, Zeke RB22)
• 2022 DET (Swift RB15, Williams RB18)
• 2021 CLE (Chubb RB11, Hunt RB20)
• 2020 CLE (Chubb RB7, Hunt RB19)
• 2019 LAC (Ekeler RB6, MGIII RB14)
• 2018 JAX (Lenny RB12, Yeldon RB22)
Jamaal Williams had 38 goal to go rushes last season. Lions top pick Jahmyr Gibbs never saw more than 35% of his teams carries in college. David Montgomery is going to see a ton of work near the end zone
TD rate on drives that crossed midfield:
• 50% - KC
• 49% - PHI
• 48% - DAL
[…]
• 26% - NYJ, DEN
• 24% - IND
Jerry Jeudy's 13.6 PPG (WR20) in 2022 was better than:
• DK Metcalf
• Michael Pittman
• Brandon Aiyuk
• Deebo Samuel
• Marquise Brown
• DJ Moore
• Juju Smith-Schuster
• Courtland Sutton (!)
Pat Freiermuth finished as TE8 in 2022, despite only having two receiving touchdowns on the year.
Last season, Travis Kelce ranked:
• Third in receptions, behind only Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson
• Third in YAC, behind only Austin Ekeler and Christian McCaffrey
• Second in receiving TDs, behind only Davante Adams
Travis Kelce’s 21.7 PPG would’ve been good for WR2 last season; the next closest Tight End would’ve been WR12.
When healthy and playing with Lamar Jackson in weeks 1-6, Mark Andrews was producing as a top-12 WR, averaging 16 points per game in .5PPR leagues.
Rookie RBs drafted in the top-36 of redraft leagues since 2011:
• Saquon Barkley
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire
• Ezekiel Ellliott
• Najee Harris
• Leonard Fournette
• Christian McCaffrey
• Dalvin Cook
• Trent Richardson
Only CEH failed to exceed ADP expectation.
Ja'Marr Chase was targeted on 24.5% of his routes in 2022. He also ranked third among WRs in red zone targets despite missing five games.
Treylon Burks averaged 2.35 YPRR in games with Ryan Tannehill last season. That would have ranked:
• 12th among all WRs
• 3rd among rookies (behind only Chris Olave and Christian Watson)
40% of offensive drives without a QB sack score points. 54% of drives with a QB sack at anytime end in a punt. The only thing worse for a possession than a turnover is taking a sack.
Deandre Hopkins landing spot odds (DraftKings) as of 7/10/2023
• post-delivery update: as of 7/13, the titans are now heavy favorites (-300)
• Patriots: -120
• Bills: +380
• Titans: +500
• Lions: +550
• Browns: +1000
• Chiefs: +1400
Dalvin Cook landing spot odds (DraftKings) as of 7/10/2023
• Patriots: +200
• Dolphins: +200
• Jets: +400
• Broncos: +1200
• Cowboys: +1500
• Bears: +1500
Offensive plays that gained 20+ yards last year:
• 83 - KC
• 80 - PHI
• 75 - SF
[…]
• 49 - ARI
• 46 - LAR
• 43 - NYG
The 49ers with Brock Purdy - Weeks 13-20:
• 32.6 Points Per Game
• 2nd in Pass EPA/Play
• 3rd in explosive pass rate (9.8%)
• 4th in drive success rate (75.3%)
• 2nd in play success rate (58.6%)
Sean Payton QBs [2018-2021]
• Taysom Hill: 20.5 fantasy points per start
• Drew Brees (age: 39-41): 19.8
• Trevor Siemian: 18.0
• Jameis Winston: 17.2
• Teddy Bridgewater: 17.1
Last year's QB11 (Justin Herbert): 17.1
Russell Wilson: ADP QB18
Nick Chubb has now averaged at least 5.0 yards per carry in all of his five seasons. He is the only player in NFL history to average at least 5.0 yards per carry with 100 or more carries in each of their first five seasons.
QBs accounted for 21% of rushing TDs last year; in 2010, it was only 11%. QBs also accounted for 16% of all rushing yards last year - most in NFL history.
QB designed rush attempts per game, 2022:
• Jalen Hurts: 8.1
• Lamar Jackson: 7.2
• Justin Fields: 6.3
• Josh Allen: 4.6
• Marcus Mariota: 4.5
• Daniel Jones: 4.1
• Kyler Murray: 3.8
According to Pro Football Focus, only one team had three players get 100+ targets last year: The Minnesota Vikings.
Over the last 20 years, every rookie QB with 80+ total rushing attempts was a top-10 fantasy football QB in fantasy points per game. That’s 4.7 carries per game.
Joe Burrow running stats:
• 7th most scrambles in 2022
• 8th most rushing attempts
• 6th most TDs
• 10th most rushing yards
• 10th best PFF Grade
• 33 First Downs running
Alvin Kamara is reportedly pleading guilty to Breach of Peace, and his felony charge will be dismissed.
George Pickens' 2022 was the 24th most PPR points per game from a 21-year-old WR in NFL history.
George Pickens had the 3rd most receptions of 20+ air yards in the NFL last season.
WRs with 300+ total targets 2021-2022:
• Justin Jefferson
• Davante Adams
• Tyreek Hill
• Stefon Diggs
• Diontae Johnson
Running Backs selected in the Top 2 Rounds to put up 18+ PPG as an 18 Year Old Freshman:
• Todd Gurley
• Jonathan Taylor
• Nick Chubb
• Jahmyr Gibbs
Kyle Juszczyk has been shocked by the difference of Brandon Aiyuk while watching OTAs and minicamp film during meetings. “I thought, 'Oh, that's BA? Wow. He moves different now.’ I told him after the meeting, 'It's just crazy how much more efficient and explosive you look now.' I think it's because he's so confident in where he's going. When you have to think, you play a little slower. But I've been talking to everyone these past two weeks: BA just looks different than everyone else on the field.”
Amari Cooper last season was:
• 12 in RZ targets (16)
• 12th in deep targets (24)
• 7th in air yards share (38.3%)
• 15th in yards per route run (2.3) on his way to the overall WR10 finish.
• Also 3rd in unrealized air yards (870), so there’s even more potential to be tapped.
Among WRs with 130+ Targets
• 337/358 (94%) finished as a Top 24 WR
• 228/358 (64%) finished as a Top 12 WR
• 109/358 (30%) finished as a Top 5 WR
Players projected for 130+ Targets in 2023
Garrett Wilson
Amon-Ra St Brown
Jaylen Waddle
DK Metcalf
Amari Cooper
Diontae Johnson
Keenan Allen
Christian Kirk
Marquise Brown
Chris Godwin
Only RBs that saw a higher target rate than Rhamondre Stevenson in 2022:
• D'Andre Swift
• Austin Ekeler
• Christian McCaffrey
• Alvin Kamara
Broncos RB Javonte Williams is expected to be ready for the season
Darius Slayton is the ONLY WR who had 70+ targets & averaged 1.75+ YPRR last year priced outside the top-125 picks on Underdog..
Joe Mixon when playing 8+ games:
• 2018: RB10
• 2019: RB13
• 2021: RB4
• 2022: RB10
The backup RBs behind him have less than 100 combined touches in their career.
Players w 10+ Targets in more than 50% of games played
Over 75%:
Nuk
Chase
Over 60%:
Jefferson
Over 50%:
Kupp
Godwin
Adams
Hill
Diggs
Amon-Ra
How quarterbacks performed in the first half of the season vs. the second of the season in 2022
Last season the Titans finished third to last in total yards, yet Derrick Henry was the RB4 in PPR Scoring per game.
Thread on how Gibbs can break the dead zone RB struggle.
leaders in receiving yards over expected (adjusting for personnel and game situation) in 2022:
1. justin jefferson, 664
2. jaylen waddle, 615
3. tyreek hill, 599
4. aj brown, 571
5. terry mclaurin, 448
6. stefon diggs, 445
7. ceedee lamb, 407
8. davante adams, 391
Top 5 2022 Red Zone Reception Leaders:
1. Justin Jefferson- 16
2. Adam Thielen- 15 (Jordan Addison?!)
3. Ja'Marr Chase- 15
4. Amon-Ra St Brown- 13
5. Christian Kirk- 13
Amon-Ra St. Brown averaged 16.7 PPR points per game. But if you remove the games from Week 5 and 7, when he was injured and had a snap count well below average, that PPG number goes up to 18.6.
RBs with 40+ Red Zone Touches:
(Carries + Targets)
Austin Ekeler- 68
Jamaal Williams- 62
Ken Walker- 52
Miles Sanders- 46
Dalvin Cook- 46
CMC- 46
Joe Mixon- 45
Najee Harris- 45
Travis Etienne- 44
Derrick Henry- 42
Nick Chubb- 40 (this will go up)
Devin Singletary- 40
Ezekiel Elliott- 40 (Pollard Szn)
The Buffalo Bills RB Depth Chart...
• James Cook - (1.43 YPRR) - 15 in NFL in 2022
• Damien Harris - (1.01 YPRR) - 32nd in NFL in 2022
• Latavius Murray - (0.69 YPRR) - 52nd in NFL in 2022
• Nyheim Hines (1.77 YPRR) - 4th in NFL in 2022
Cold Water:
% of runs that gained 1 or fewer yards (2022, min 100 att)
• 40.0% - James Robinson
• 36.8% - Michael Carter
• 33.9% - Kareem Hunt
• 32.2% - Dameon Pierce
• 32.0% - Kenyan Drake
• 31.7% - Kenneth Walker III
• 31.4% - Ezekiel Elliott
• 31.0% - Jonathan Taylor
• 30.2% - Dalvin Cook
• 30.1% - Rachaad White
The 49ers ranked first in overall defense efficiency in EPA/play in 2022. However, the 49ers played the easiest schedule of opposing offenses.
Gabe Davis' opportunity last season was as expected:
• Ran 617 routes, 16th-most in NFL despite missing two games
• aDOT was 16.3 yards, 4th-highest in NFL
• Earned a decent 17.5% target share on the NFL's No. 3 PROE team
However, catch rate was just 51.6% (5th-worst among all qualifying WRs). Had 2nd-highest drop rate. Contested catch rate a poor 34.8%.
Best Rookie RB Finishes Since 2000 (Among RBs Under 195 Lbs)
2007 Lorenzo Booker- RB65
2010 Dexter McCluster- RB66
2003 Quentin Griffin- RB75
2021 Jaret Patterson- RB75
2012 Chris Rainey- RB80
This is a Devon Achane is 189 Lbs tweet
Top QBs passing between the numbers:
• 1 - Tua Tagovailoa
• 2 - Joe Burrow
• 3 - Jalen Hurts
[…]
• 29 - Dak Prescott
• 30 - Zach Wilson
• 32 - Justin Fields
• 33 - Russell Wilson
Players who were franchise-tagged this off season have one week remaining to finalize a long-term deal (July 17th); otherwise, they can only play the upcoming season under the franchise tag.
• RB Saquon Barkley
• RB Josh Jacobs
• RB Tony Pollard
• TE Evan Engram
Kadarius Toney Efficiency Metrics:
• ESPN Open Score: 48% percentile
• Reception Perception: 17% percentile
• Average: 32% percentile
6% of all rushing attempts by the Bengals last year were kneel downs.
Since the 2020’s began there’s only been ONE pair of teammates to both post a 25%+ Target Share: AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith.
The Fun Stuff:
Pancake season on TikTok
It’s all in the family
Maybe they meant EJ Manuel…
DHop sighting in… Jacksonville???
The case for drafting RBs early
Mahomes ankle behind the scenes
Patrick Mahomes was drafted by the Tigers in the 37th round of the 2014 MLB Draft out of high school
Last time the Jets were on Hard Knox
NFL Twitter Account posted all of Super Bowl 51 for a few hours
Anthony Richardson can HOOP
NFL National Revenue Was Almost $12 Billion In 2022
Elijah Moore’s route running agility
ChiefAholic has been caught… Again?!
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