All your 1st round rookies are about to suck

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Welcome back!

This is one of the slower periods of the offseason news cycle, But get ready for things to start getting real spicy with training camps around the corner. With that said, we’ve still got some great nuggets for you this week.

Now let’s get to the good stuff.

Analysis & Hype:

Yearly training camp reminder to be skeptical of ‘rookie with high draft capital playing behind Senior Accountant from Ernst & Young!’ Here are some real headline examples of camp narratives that depressed rookie prices for breakout stars:
• Garrett Wilson is playing behind Braxton Berrios in camp!
• Olabisi Johnson is playing ahead of Justin Jefferson and will relegate him to 3WR sets.
• Christian Watson can't catch! Romeo Doubs will be better!
• Michael Carter the "clear RB1" over Breece Hall in NY
• Ja'Maar Chase can't catch and is going to lose work to... Auden Tate?
• Amon-Ra St. Brown has a "disappointing preseason" and is playing behind Breshad Perriman (Thanks Leone), Quintez Cephus, and "Tom Kennedy" (Real Estate Tax Manager at Deloitte)

From 2018 to 2022 NFL QBs who averaged 3 or fewer scrambles + designed runs per game missed 1.6 games per season due to injury. QBs who averaged 4 or more scrambles + designed runs per game missed 1.5 games per season due to injury. Sample of 192.

Wide receivers who scored more fantasy PPR points than Keenan Allen after he returned from injury in Week 11 last season: 
• Justin Jefferson 
• Davante Adams

Keenan Allen [had] at least 6 receptions per game each of the past 8 seasons. That's a 102 reception pace over 17 games. The final 8 games of last season, Allen paced for 128 receptions, 1424 yards, and 8 TDs. (318.4 PPR points)

James Conner PPR fantasy football finishes in his final four games of 2022 with Colt McCoy, David Blough and Trace McSorley under center in an offense that never scored 20+ points in any of the games:
• RB5
• RB12
• RB4
• RB15 (left early with shin injury)

Among RBs to hit 70+ Targets (4.4 per game) [Over the last 10 years]
• 57/57 (100%) finished in the Top 24 RBs 
• 46/57 (81%) finished in the Top 12 RBs 
• 26/57 (45%) finished in the Top 5 RBs
Some RBs projected for 70+ Targets in 2023:
• Christian McCaffrey
• Austin Ekeler
• Rhamondre Stevenson
• Breece Hall
• Aaron Jones
• Joe Mixon
• Saquon Barkley
• D'Andre Swift
• Antonio Gibson

First read target shares from WRs last year:
• Ja’Marr Chase and Garrett Wilson - >87%
• Average - 79%
• Gabe Davis - <60%

An interesting read on the Falcons top pass catchers last season.
• Per game only Chicago (22.2) attempted fewer passes than the Falcons (24.4).
• The Falcons were 4th in the NFL in pass attempts of 20+ yards.
• In 2022, Pitts and London finished top 5 in targets per route run.
• London had 4 TDs last year and 10 games under 50 yards.
• Pitts was held to under 30 yards 7 times. (This happened to Juwan Johnson only 6 times)

A thread about the positional values of RBs vs WRs in the first four rounds of your best ball draft (RB2-12 vs WR7-20). (WRs are making up a large majority of the early 1st round in best ball right now)
• The probability of a WR7-20 providing you with 10+ points over a replacement player is 14.8%.
• The likelihood of an RB2-12 giving you 10+ points over a replacement player is higher at 22.8%.
• When aiming for 15+ points over a replacement player, WR7-20 has a 7% chance of achieving this threshold, whereas RB2-12 has a higher probability of 12.3%.
• Looking at the potential for 20+ points over a replacement player, the chances decrease further. WR7-20 has a 2.9% probability, while RB2-12 has a slightly higher likelihood of 5.5%.

“Eagles faced incredibly soft schedule last season. Pass-game efficiency will regress when they take on more volume this season. But expect that regression to be outweighed by spike in raw pass attempts. 23rd last season. Plus the Tush Push still legal. Jalen Hurts fantasy's QB1”

Over the last five years, Tyler Lockett ranks fifth among all skill players in touchdown catches (45), behind only Davante Adams (61), Tyreek Hill (50), Mike Evans (49), and Travis Kelce (45).

There’s only been TWO 1st Round Konami QB Prospects to post <12% Pressure to Sack Rate in College:
• Patrick Mahomes
• Anthony Richardson
Richardson actually has the LOWEST Pressure to Sack Rate of any 1st Round Pick EVER

Geno Smith had a phenomenal season, but the fact that Colby Parkinson was third in target share against Single High tells why they picked Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

The Rams have typically had a true WR trio under Sean McVay. Watkins-Woods-Kupp. Cooks-Woods-Kupp. Even Kupp-Woods-Jefferson. This could be the first year without one because of how open the WR3 spot is. “No one wants to hear it… but, Tyler Higbee is set up to sleepwalk into 90-100 targets again”

Top Risers in Underdog ADP (Best ball) from 6/12 - 6/20:
• Parris Campbell
• Pierre Strong
• Khalil Shakir
• Jerome Ford
• Ty Chandler

Insanely small sample size, but interesting nonetheless: Jameson Williams was targeted on 29% of his routes run last year this totaled 148 air yards on 9 targets. Other players targeted this often:
Drake London 29%
Davante Adams 29%
Chris Olave 28%
Stefon Diggs 28%
Cooper Kupp 30%
Amon Ra St. Brown 30%

Jahan Dotson:
• 16.2% Target Rate
• 1.39 Yards per Route Run
• 10.7 PPG on an 11.5% TD Rate
• WR38 ADP
Treylon Burks:
• 21.3% Target Rate
• 1.75 Yards per Route Run
• 8.0 PPG on a 1.9% TD Rate
• WR42 ADP

Tua Tagovailoa tied with Patrick Mahomes for the highest TD rate (6.3%) in the NFL last season.

Cooper Kupp, in his 9 games of 2022, led the NFL in target share at 29.9%. He was second in the league at .31 Targets Per Route Run. Through Week 9, Kupp was the top WR in fantasy with 24.8 PPR points per game. Current ADP is WR5

“Joe Mixon caught 60 balls last year … with almost none of that coming on 3rd down. 3rd down was Perine, who’s now in Denver …”

Tight Ends to post a 20%+ Target Rate and 75+ PFF Grade in EACH of their first two seasons:
• Rob Gronkowski
• Jimmy Graham
• Zach Ertz
• Jordan Reed
• Kyle Pitts
• Hunter Henry
• Tony Scheffler
• Pat Freiermuth

Antonio Gibson:
• Takes over pass-down role that fed UFA JD McKissic more targets/game than anyone other than Ekeler, CMC and Kamara 2020-22
• Only addition is 6th round early-down grinder Chris Rodriguez

There’s been eight Upside Bellcow RB Prospects drafted in the 3rd Round. Three of them posted a PFF Rushing Grade ABOVE 90.0:
• Kareem Hunt
• James Conner
• Devon Achane (Rookie Miami RB)

James Conner PPR fantasy football finishes in his final four games of 2022 with Colt McCoy, David Blough and Trace McSorley under center in an offense that never scored 20+ points in any of the games:
• RB5
• RB12
• RB4
• RB15 (left early with shin injury)”

Targets per route run, 2022 (min. 200 routes):
1. tyreek hill, 0.34
2. davante adams, 0.30
3. cooper kupp, 0.30
4. amon-ra st. brown, 0.29
5. chris olave, 0.29
6. drake london, 0.29
7. stefon diggs, 0.27
8. ceedee lamb, 0.27
9. justin jefferson, 0.26
10. deandre hopkins, 0.26

As an 18 year old Freshman, [Jahmyr] Gibbs posted a 21.7% Receiving Yard Share. The only 1st Round RBs to post even a 9.0%+ Receiving Yard Share as Freshman.
• Chris Johnson
• Christian McCaffrey

Tight Ends to post an 80%+ Route Participation and 20%+ Target Rate in each of the past three seasons:
• Travis Kelce
• Mark Andrews
“Andrews, who’s only 27, is now in an offense that might throw for their highest passing volume to date…”

The Miami Dolphins have offered RB Dalvin Cook a contract, per @flasportsbuzz. Cook is reportedly weighing multiple offers.

Reports that Packers WR Romeo Doubs "has seemingly become quarterback Jordan Love's go-to guy."

Pierre Strong “could complement Stevenson as the lightning to Rhamondre’s thunder” and has “been on the James White track”

Breece Hall reached a 60% snap share in just 3 of 7 games, yet had 16.4 PPR points per game, 8th at the RB position

Cold Water:

Christian Watson 1,000 receiving yards in a season: 
• NFL = 0 
• College = 0 
• High School = 0

Travis Etienne was just the RB23 in points per game in 2022. And had just four finishes as a RB1 in 17 games. The Jaguars now added a RB in the 3rd round when they had other needs. Etienne still currently goes as the RB13

The Fun Stuff:

Lil’ Aaron on the mic

Slow off season for the NFL Media Interns

Patrick Mahomes literally defies the odds

Salary cap growth by position in the NFL since 2013

Antwaan Randle El: the most efficient QB ever

Don’t get old, kids (especially if you play RB)

Does NFC stand for New Face Conference?

An interesting trend as big WRs continue to garner attention

Skyy Moore 🤝 Antonio Brown

LV Raiders Brian Horrific

Is Devon Achane fast enough?

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