41 Nuggets From Week 4

Get these delivered to your inbox each week:

Welcome back!

In my home league, I entered the season projected for the most expected fantasy points and a perfect record. You all know what that means! Oooooooooh YEAH!!!! I’m 2-2 and in 8th place.
We got some good headlines this week, so let’s go.

Analysis & Hype:

Rashaad Penny’s last 10 games: 151 carries 998 yards (6.61 YPC) 8 TDs.

“Romeo Doubs has been the Packers’ WR1 since Week 3, leading all Green Bay WRs in per game”:
Target Share (24.2%)
Opportunities (8)
Yards After Catch (44.5)
Expected Fantasy Points (10.6)
Half PPR Points (14.3)

Romeo Doubs also leads Green Bay in catches, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns after 4 weeks.

Romeo Doubs has124 yards after the catch, which leads all rookies.

Over the last two weeks, Romeo Doubs leads the team in routes (63) and first read target share (29.5%)

There are only 4 players in the NFL w/ at least a 20% target share and aDOT above 12
•Chris Olave
•Darnell Mooney
•Kyle Pitts
•Courtland Sutton
Unfortunately, for Mooney and Pitts, their respective teams are 31st and 32nd in pass volume.

Chris Olave has 210 receiving yards on throws 20+ yards. Only Tyreek Hill has more with 243.

Chris Olave’s 335 receiving yards is 1st among rookie WRs and 8th among all WRs.

George Pickens saw 15 targets on Mitch Trubisky's 116 attempts in 3.5 games (12.9%). George Pickens saw 5 targets on Kenny Pickett's 14 attempts, including penalties, in one half Sunday (35.7%).

George Pickens' target share by week:
1: 8.1%
2: 9.1%
3: 21.9%
4: 32.0%

“Imagine when the Eagles actually get challenged for a full game. Jalen Hurts leads the league with 87.7 fantasy points scored in the first half of games while the next closest player (Cooper Kupp) has 60.2 points. In the 2nd half: 13.6 points (156th).”

Jalen Hurts is on pace for 225 carries. The previous QB record? 176. (Linked article where author explains why Hurts is a different runner than even Lamar and Kyler, and why offense could be sustainable.)

Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins data when analyzing every route (754) played together in 2021 and 2022
Higgins: 160 targets - 109 receptions - 1,675 yards - 10 TDs
Chase 144 targets - 95 receptions - 1,574 yards - 10 TDs
Includes playoff

Most yards from scrimmage through week 4:
Saquon Barkley - 570
Nick Chubb - 496
Tyreek Hill - 482
Josh Jacobs - 426
Cooper Kupp - 422
Aaron Jones - 408
Christian McCaffrey - 408
Stefon Diggs - 406
AJ Brown - 404
Jaylen Waddle - 398

Josh McDaniels after Josh Jacobs' career day vs. Broncos: "One of the best runners that I’ve ever been around"

Josh Jacobs has 335 yards this year, 276 have come post contact with 22 forced missed tackles (2nd in the NFL) He has a 115.4 elusiveness rating which is 5th in the NFL among running backs.

Courtland Sutton's target shares over his last three games: 39.3%, 31.3%, 29.2%.

NFL Air Yards Leaders:
WR:
1) Chris Olave 673 (220 more than the next highest)
2) Tyreek Hill 453
3) CeeDee Lamb 440
4) Davante Adams 438
5) AJ Brown 425
TE:
1) Mark Andrews 414
2) Kyle Pitts 346
3) Darren Waller 273
4) Travis Kelce 269
5) Pat Freiermuth 246

RB Leaders in Target Share [Last 2 Weeks]
1. Christian McCaffrey (21.3%)
2. DERRICK HENRY (20.8%)
3. Breece Hall (19.1%)
4. Rhamondre Stevenson (18.9%)
5. Austin Ekeler (17.9%)
6. Devin Singletary (15.2%)

Dameon Pierce had 100% of the Texans' running back rushes in week 4, becoming the first player to do that twice so far this season. More importantly, he ran four more routes than Rex Burkhead. That's the first time he's run more routes than Burkhead in a game this year.

Alec Pierce has seven receptions for 141 yards last two games.

Joe Mixon leads all players in expected fantasy points.

Chart showing promising usage from Rachaad White in Week 4.

Through four games, the NFL leader in completion % is... Geno Smith, at 77.3%. This is the highest in NFL history through 4 games. Just like we call expected.

Thread from /r/DynastyFF: “My favorite buy lows right now”

Thread from /r/fantasyfootball: “Week 4 Overreactions”

Cold Water:

A tale as old as time: D.J. Moore ranks 67th-of-73 WRs in catchable targets (62.1%) among receivers with at least 15 targets However, Moore’s average depth of target (7.4 yards) is much lower than the 6 WRs with worse catchable target rates He’s dealt with the worst QB play of any starting WR so far

Over his past 8 games going back to last year, George Kittle has 21 catches for 220 yards and 1 TD. His high mark for yardage over that span is 63 yards with fewer than 30 yards receiving in seven of those games.

% of Carries to Gain Fewer Than 1 Yard
1. James Robinson (32.2%)
2. Cam Akers (31.6%)
3. Austin Ekeler (31.1%)

Gabe Davis' target shares in games played this year: 16.1%, 10.5%, 8.8%.

Kyle Pitts route participation this season:
Week 1: 72%
Week 2: 91%
Week 3: 68%
Week 4: 60%

“Joe Mixon is averaging 0.5 yards after contact per attempt this year. That is HORRENDOUS. He has two broken tackles in 82 attempts. The lowest YAC/attempt among RBs last year was Jamaal Williams with 1.4.”

The Fun Stuff:

Kyler Murray
Rushing Yards Per Carry
2019: 5.85
2020: 6.16
2021: 4.81
2022: 3.79
Kill To Death Ratio
2019: 1.01
2020: 0.92
2021: 1.47
2022: 1.96

Zero-RB drafters in 2022.

One time the Patriots had an elite WR who had 1,493 yards and 23 touchdowns while the team almost went undefeated and Bill Belichick looked at that and said “never again”

POV Mariota audibled to a play with Kyle Pitts as the first read.

Thinking of only one man today on this the day that Blake Bortles retired.

Nyheim Hines tonight.

Deebo Samuel on IG.

NFL meeting week 4.

“Kyle Pitts was not seen on the field at practice so far today. Falcons taking gameday simulation to next level.

Get these delivered to your inbox each week:

👋 That’s it for now. Join our community on  Patreon and get access to our Discord chat, where everyone shares and discusses the beast headlines/analysis, daily. You can also follow us on  Twitter, where we browse over 1,000 analysts and beat writers and retweet/post all the good stuff.