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Welcome back, you beautiful (fellow) fantasy addicts! The NFL Draft is upon us which means itās time to fire up the newsletter. Thereās a highly touted draft class and a lot of teams making big changes which should make for a fun off-season. You can look forward to once again getting all the best headlines compiled in one place and delivered to your inbox each week.
Now letās get to the first issue of the season:
Analysis & Hype:
āUrban Meyer did an amazing job creatively using Curtis Samuel all over the field in his final season at Ohio State (97/771/8 rushing; 74/865/7 receiving). Now we get to see Laviska Shenault in that role.ā
Since 2014, there have been 9 instances in college ball of a player hitting 200 receiving yards in the 1st half. Alabama WR DeVonta Smith has 3 of them.
āOne of my top prospects in the class is easily [WR] Elijah Moore. Posted a 95th percentile success rate vs. man coverage (79.8%) in #ReceptionPerception. Absurd separator. On the Lockett/Baldwin-axis. Just love this player.ā
Kurt Warner and Alex Rollins analyze the tape on North Dakota State QB Trey Lance. Warner ranks Lance as his QB5 but adds the caveat: ā[If] he gets better from a consistency standpoint, maybe heās the best quarterback we have in this draft.ā
Obviously QB Justin Herbert isnāt gonna say heās chillinā after his record-breaking rookie season, but you gotta like his attitude towards year 2.
āMost yards per rush among RBs with 300+ carries since 2018: 1. Nick Chubb (5.23) 2. Gus Edwards (5.2)ā
Jim Nagy on Florida TE Kyle Pitts: āNFL teams have noted the significant one-year jump. Scary what he could be in 2-3 year projection window.ā
Looking for some rookie WR sleeper potential? Matt Miller: āI can't figure out Seth Williams. Auburn WR looks like a DUDE sometimes and others he looks like a UDFA. Struggled to put a final grade on him. He could be drafted A LOT higher than my ranking if a team believes they can harness his awesome raw ability.ā
Matt Bowen and Greg Cosell give a short and sweet video breakdown on LSU WR JaāMarr Chase.
Warren Sharp gives a quick, interesting breakdown on how often players from each position drafted in the 1st round āhit.ā
Breakdown arguing against the idea that Tua Tagovailoa might be toast.
More: Ryan Fitzpatrick on Tua Tagovailoa: āThe two things that really stick out to me about Tua is he has elite accuracy; thatās very importantā¦ And he throws with anticipation and that is something you donāt see with quarterbacks coming from college to the NFL. Iām a huge Tua fan.ā How can you not root for Fitz?
D.J. Moore is Steve Smith (Or better).
Player that had the most incomplete targets that were the QB's fault in 2020: Jerry Jeudy - 26 Note: This isnāt a very telling stat, but Iāll allow it because Iām a Jeudy truther.
This little nugget might be the most convincing thing Iāve seen regarding Alabama RB Najee Harris āTop-5 RBs in missed tackles forced per reception over the past six college classes from my charting: 1. Najee Harris (0.58) 2. Alvin Kamara (0.53) 3. Christian McCaffrey (0.45) 4. Zack Moss (0.44) 5. Kareem Hunt (0.42)ā Ignores Zack Moss
Running Backs to earn an elite 90.0+ overall PFF grade in 2020: Derrick Henry - 92.4 and NE RB Damien Harris - 90.3
PFF Grade on throws past 1st read since 2019: (min. 60 attempts) 1st - Justin Fields - 90.6 2nd - Zach Wilson - 90.1 3rd - Trey Lance - 87.2 ... 7th - Trevor Lawrence - 78.6 8th - Mac Jones - 75.7
Gun to your head, who has more rushing TDs, Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen?
This is probably a great time to re-visit this January thread from /r/fantasyfootball āBefore we all forget, what are some notes about this year that you want to keep in mind for next yearās draft?ā
Cold Water:
āInteresting. @MoveTheSticks says on a conference call that some medical issues āpoppedā for LSU receiver Terrace Marshall Jr. at the medical combine in Indianapolis. Marshall missed time in high school and college with foot and leg injuries that required surgery.ā
A strong case for why the Lions might limit DāAndre Swiftās usage in 2021 (If they were smart).
Eaglesā HC Nick Sirianni declined to name Jalen Hurts the starting QB and said it will be an open competition.
Podcasts I Enjoyed This Week:
Locked On Dynasty: Quarterback and Tight End Rookie Rankings
Sonic Truth Dynasty: Justin Fields freefall firewall
The Fun Stuff:
Quite possibly the greatest mock draft youāve ever seen.
Kyle Shanahan when asked if Jimmy Garoppolo would be on the 49ers' roster.
Alabama QB Mac Jones alongside the other first round QBs.
Tyrann Mathieu on the NFL relaxing the number rules this year.
Trevor Lawrence might play some snaps at linebacker.
Watching Dak Prescott throwing the football again brings a smile to my face.
āThe NFL draft is astrology for menā